GOP in disarray won’t assure Dems an easy ride here in 2010

Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2009 | 2 a.m.

By now, the instant post-mortems on Election 2009 results will have been written, either overstating (most likely) or understating their significance for Campaign 2010.

Such is the standard day-after fare. But the relevant question is: What does all of this mean, if anything, for Nevada, where the state’s two most important races could be affected by how a restive GOP electorate cleaves in competitive primaries for governor and U.S. Senate?

Nevada is not Virginia or New Jersey or that bizarre New York congressional district, where one national Republican expert said it probably doesn’t teach the GOP much: “How often are party leaders gonna handpick a pro-choice, pro-gay rights, pro-tax increase person? Not often.”

Which brings me to Brian Sandoval, who fits the first two descriptions and will be tarred with the third because, as attorney general, he acted on Kenny Guinn’s behalf when the governor sued and paved the way for what was then the largest tax increase in history.

Sandoval is the front-runner in public polls, but it’s reasonable to ask on this day-after if he might be vulnerable to an anti-RINO (Republican In Name Only) attack by a candidate — Gov. Jim Gibbons seems most likely — looking to activate the supposedly angry right-wing base.

Certainly the Sandoval campaign has to take a sitting governor seriously, as much as Gibbons tries almost daily to ensure people don’t take him seriously. But the recent history of Nevada elections shows no evidence that the more conservative — or ostensibly more conservative — candidate will win a GOP primary.

In 1998 the late Aaron Russo, a mercurial, flamboyant Hollywood producer, tarred Guinn as a RINO, but he was crushed. (Granted, Russo seemed more bizarre than Gibbons at times.) In 2006 Gibbons ran against Bob Beers, the conservative, anti-tax hero of the Legislature, and destroyed him. That same cycle, in a congressional race, Dean Heller was called a liberal in a conservative district and still defeated right-winger Sharron Angle.

Granted, except for the Heller-Angle race, where the Club for Growth outspent Heller on Angle’s behalf, money also has been a key factor. But there may be more going on here, too.

In the same way that Democrats here are more moderate than their counterparts elsewhere, Republicans in Nevada are not as rabid as some on the right would think and hope. In a small political subdivision such as a legislative district, where there will be several GOP primaries, the conservative base may have more impact — but it’s less likely in a statewide contest.

The base can be loud — and even destructive — but what happens in the central committee often stays in the central committee — with both parties. It may escape the partisan echo chamber this year because turnout will be lower in an off-presidential year, thus amplifying the base’s impact. But any GOP anger next year may well be turned outward rather than inward — that is, toward anyone with the last name Reid.

That’s why the Snow White (Sue Lowden) and the dwarves Senate primary is so unpredictable. All the GOP contenders are likely to train their fire on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, rather than each other — although surely there will be some sub rosa stuff and maybe, toward June, some public internecine warfare. The constant attacks will not help Reid the Elder or Reid the Younger as both coast to June victories but then must worry about a two-Reids drag combining with any motivated GOP base.

Countering all of this is a 100,000-voter statewide registration edge by Democrats yet to be harnessed in an off-year by the best political machine the state has seen, even more important because turnout will be significantly down (it was 59 percent in 2006). And the real wild card in Campaign 2010 here are the independents, who voted for Barack Obama by a 2-to-1 margin but now are leaning toward the GOP. (Might a third-party contender, as Doug Hoffman was in New York, be a factor in this odd year? Ask Mayor Oscar Goodman.)

This is still a center-right state that, until voters chose the flawed conservative (Gibbons) over the accented liberal (Dina Titus) in 2006, had elected and reelected three center-right governors since 1982. The activists on the right and left don’t determine important Nevada electoral outcomes — the great middle does.

Democrats hoping for GOP cannibalism in the two major races and tapping the registration advantage should worry about the impact of the economy and the two-Reids effect as a counterbalance. No matter what happened in New York, New Jersey and Virginia, those are the factors that will drive the Nevada results we will be talking about one year from today.

Discussion: 6 comments so far…

By lvice

11/4/09 at 8:33 a.m.

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John you have missed the real question about Sandoval. The question is if Montandon gains because of this.
Montandon is a conservative that has won 3 elections in what is the most liberal municipality in the state. He has proved to be able to get cross-over votes and independents better than anyone in Nevada. He has to be regarded as the most serious of the candidates as a manager (look at North Las Vegas 14 years ago compared to today. Would you have believed it?)
You failed to look at a couple of races where the conservatives did win out. Rawson v Beers where Rawson had everyone onboard that Sandoval does and Beers won and look at Christensen winning in the general in a district that had a 5.5% advantage to the democrats, Obama won the district by 9% and his opponent was able to outspend him by 75k.(I use this race because the district is more like a congressional size with over 100k voters)
Conservatives that are still normal mainstream presentable folks can win in generals! It will be Montandon that benefits as republicans learn more about Sandovals politics.
By mred

11/4/09 at 12:27 p.m.

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Maldef loves Brian (I still haven't seen his birth certificate) that won't go over with the orange county knuckle draggers who retired here 15 years ago.

I noticed the Morning Sour Blowhard and the ubiquitous BOSS Jack Landgraft are in overdrive trying to discredit Libertarian Whiley. How many counties in Nevada? Who owns the TI? blah blah It seems like the talk radio idiots are running scared. I wonder if the local News?talk station will file a campaign disclosure for all the free advertising they are giving the Republicans.
By ghostcommander

11/4/09 at 1:08 p.m.

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Many kudos to Jon Ralston for delivering the cold hard facts to the citizens of Nevada. This man is a AAA rated journalist that investigates, collects the facts and gives Nevadans an objective report. No, I do not work for Moodys, Standard & Poors, or Fitchs.
By darkhorse

11/4/09 at 6:37 p.m.

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Montandon doesn't stand a chance against the Reid machine. Why not work with Sandoval and actually bring something to the table. The races show in NJ. and VA. the independents will carry the race.
By dhvincent1

11/4/09 at 11 p.m.

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WTF, where has Ralston being living lately? under a rock? Obviously, Ralsot pretends to be smart but is about as stupid as the rock that is my backyard. And he considers himself to be a political astute? Tell you what John, I'll put some money against yours for our favorite charity to see if you are right next year. Are you man enough, John?
By wizardofOz

11/5/09 at 7:08 p.m.

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The biggest problem in this state is that there is no qualified third party, and definitely no third party leadership even hiding in the wings.

Most people are too scared to lose their day-jobs by coming out for any qualified third party candidate in any race in Nevada. Wear one wrong campaign button, and it's Nevada pink-slip day all over again.

This state was founded at a time when the rest of the country was busy trying decide which half was winning, i.e. 2 sides in the fight, North and South. And so it has continually progressed until today.

And even if somehow that "Battle Born" fight were held today, Nevada's historic mobsters would line up with the libs in the yankee North, and Nevada's staunch mountain ranchers would line up with the confeds in the rebel South.

Either way, Nevada's got some serious two party candidate depth issues. These four descriptive words, seriously meek and flatly shallow, instantly come to mind.

Along with recent statistics that say we're the 2nd stupidest nationwide on record, but actually 7th largest in area, we can calculate that mathematically that works out to be a whole lot of stupidity per electorate square mile.

Tie that in with the outright campaign lies that end up in every Nevadan's mailbox a few days before every election, and you can see we have the sordid makings of Nevada staying in the same deep rut for the forseeable future and shamefully held back to go nowhere fast, almost forever.

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