Let baseline total be your guide

By Jeff Haney

Saturday, May 30, 2009 | 2 a.m.

Two distinct trends have emerged in over/under wagering in the NBA’s conference finals series.

In the Eastern Conference finals, four of the first five games of the series between the Cavaliers and Magic have gone over the total installed by oddsmakers.

In the Western Conference finals, four of the first five games of the series between the Lakers and Nuggets went under the posted total.

Are these streaks flukes, the result of random noise — or can bettors take something from them and possibly use the information in the remainder of the series and heading into the NBA Finals?

According to a method outlined by oddsmaker Simon Noble (in the Pinnacle Pulse betting newsletter, June 14, 2006, and elsewhere), the first step in analyzing a series of NBA over/unders entails establishing a “baseline” total in a set of games between any two teams.

Some bettors might make the mistake of taking the two teams’ points-per-game and points allowed-per-game and “averaging out” those four figures. Doing so would likely lead to a flawed result.

Instead, compare each team’s statistics with the league average.

In the West, for example, the Lakers’ offense scored 106.9 points a game, 7 points higher than the NBA average. The Lakers’ defense allowed 99.2 points a game, 0.7 point lower than the NBA average.

The Nuggets scored 104.3 points a game, 4.4 points higher than the NBA average. The Nuggets allowed 100.9 points a game, 1 point higher than the NBA average.

Combining those four “totals adjusters” (plus 7, minus 0.7, plus 4.4 and plus 1) yields a “team total adjustment,” as Noble calls it, of 11.7. Adding that to the NBA average total (99.9 points a game times 2) gives us a baseline total of 211.5.

The baseline total is typically a good starting point in analyzing an over/under, although handicappers can incorporate their own knowledge or opinions regarding likely coaching tactics, injuries and the like.

The over/under for Game 1 of the Lakers-Nuggets series was set at 214 points, Game 2 at 212.5 points and Game 3 at 212 points in Las Vegas. Only after all three of those games finished under the total was the over/under adjusted to a point below our baseline total. The total on Game 4 was established at 209 points, and that one ended up going over the total. Game 5, also with a total of 209, yielded the fourth under of the series.

Totals players can also analyze the “pace” of a game upon its conclusion by estimating the number of each team’s possessions (the generally agreed-upon formula is field-goal attempts minus offensive rebounds plus turnovers plus the product of .43 and free-throw attempts), and determining whether there’s any discrepancy between the pace and the number of points scored.

The pace in the Lakers-Nuggets series has essentially played out true to form. During the regular season, each team averaged just over 96 possessions. During the first five games of the series, the Lakers had from 92 to 98.3 possessions a game and the Nuggets’ figures ranged from 93 to 97.3.

Still, oddsmakers and the betting marketplace have evidently decided that 209 points is the “right” total for this series, as that over/under was available throughout Las Vegas on Friday. It’s up to you, Gentle Reader, to determine the pace of Friday night’s game and predict whether it will affect forthcoming totals on games involving the two teams.

A similar pattern — albeit in reverse — is shaping up in the East, where the over/unders on the first three games of the series went from 184 to 188 to 189 before Game 3 finished under the total. After two more high-scoring affairs in the fourth and fifth games of the series (Game 4 went well over the total even without overtime), the over/under on today’s Game 6 opened at 192.5 in Las Vegas — the highest total of the series.

It’s worth noting that our baseline figure for the Eastern Conference finals, 187 points, falls right smack in the middle of the range — and that the Finals will feature a better-than-average offensive team from the West against a strong defensive team from the East, no matter who prevails in the conference championships.