Mine That Bird a Triple Crown long shot? Yes, but…

By Jeff Haney

Friday, May 15, 2009 | 2 a.m.

At first glance, Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird appears to command little respect.

In a betting proposition at Lucky’s sports books asking if “Birdie” will complete a Triple Crown bid by winning Saturday’s Preakness and the Belmont, the “No” side is heavily favored.

Bettors must lay a price of minus 3500 (risk $35 to net $1) to wager against Mine That Bird winning racing’s Triple Crown.

It’s plus 2000 (risk $1 to net $20) that the colt will win the Triple Crown.

The proposition is structured to give bettors on either side a fair shake, however. The theoretical hold percentage, or house edge, on a prop of minus 3500/plus 2000 works out to just under 2 percent. This compares quite favorably with a standard wager on either side of a typical football or basketball game, for example, in which bettors must buck a disadvantage of about 4 1/2 percent.

Mine That Bird is listed at plus 850 to win in early Preakness wagering, the fourth choice behind filly Rachel Alexandra, Pioneerof the Nile, and Friesan Fire. So the plus 2000 price on the Triple Crown prop corresponds with projected odds of about 6-5 on Birdie in the Belmont, should he win the Preakness.

There’s a chance Birdie, if he wins Saturday, would be a much shorter favorite in the Belmont. For example, if you think odds of plus 850 on Birdie to win the Preakness are fair, and you suspect he would be something like a 1-2 shot in the Belmont, then you would want to take a close look at the “Yes” side of the Triple Crown prop at plus 2000.

In the parlance of the racing form, this option would be “much the best.”

UFC odds

Rashad Evans, the undefeated Ultimate Fighting Championship light heavyweight champ, figures to go off as a betting underdog for the third consecutive time May 23, when he faces Lyoto Machida in the headliner of UFC 98 at the MGM Grand.

Machida, also undefeated in mixed martial arts competition, is a minus 250 favorite. Evans is a plus 190 underdog.

Evans was a small underdog of about plus 110 when he stopped Forrest Griffin to win the light heavyweight belt in December, and an underdog of plus 200 when he knocked out Chuck Liddell in September.

Machida has become accustomed to the role of betting favorite, coming off a knockout of Thiago Silva as a minus 300 favorite in January. In his previous UFC fight, he beat Tito Ortiz by decision as a minus 200 favorite last May.

In a welterweight fight on the card, Matt Hughes is a minus 325 favorite against Matt Serra (plus 250). Hughes has lost three of his past four UFC fights, to Georges St. Pierre twice and to Thiago Alves. Serra is coming off a loss to St. Pierre as a plus 350 underdog.

Bad beat story

Remember when the Rockets’ final shot in Game 5 of their NBA playoff series against the Lakers on Tuesday night refused to drop through the basket after coming oh-so-close?

Some Las Vegas bettors do — particularly that subset of gamblers who like shooting for “middles,” or betting both sides of a game at different point spreads in an attempt to cash both tickets.

The game was a textbook example of a good “middle” opportunity on the over/under (if you’re reading a really twisted textbook). Without doing anything fancy or having to rely on obscure “outs,” or betting shops, bettors could have played “over” 197 1/2 points early in the day and “under” 201 points closer to game time. Both numbers were available at several major casino properties.

After Houston’s last shot bounced out, the Lakers ran out the clock and won 118-78. Had the shot fallen, the total would have landed on 198 points, a middler’s delight.

Mayweather watch

Thanks in part to an extremely early wager of $2,000 on Floyd Mayweather Jr., the betting line on a potential fight between Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao has been adjusted to minus 135 on favored Mayweather and plus 115 on Pacquiao, according to Lucky’s odds.

The line opened at pick ’em. The fight must take place by the end of February for action on the bet.

Mayweather is a minus 400 favorite in his July 18 fight against Juan Manuel Marquez at the MGM Grand.