Economist sees Las Vegas rebound slower than rest of U.S.

By Buck Wargo

Friday, May 8, 2009 | 2 a.m.

The local economy is still declining, albeit at a slower pace, and should lag behind the recovery of the rest of the nation, according to a UNLV economist.

The Center for Business and Economic Research’s Southern Nevada Index of Leading Economic Indicators for April shows all 10 categories declined compared with a year ago. The April index measures data from February and is a forecast of the local economy through Aug. 1.

Gross gaming revenues fell 23 percent, convention attendance dropped 14 percent and visitor volume dropped 9 percent. Taxable sales fell 17 percent, the value of commercial permits fell 51 percent and residential permit values declined 74 percent.

“The index is continuing to drop, and it is a reflection of continuing economic decline,” said Keith Schwer, the center’s director. “There is no (sign of) the bottom.”

There has been some good news with gains in the stock market, and it appears the nation’s economy is bottoming out, Schwer said.

The rate of decline in Southern Nevada’s economy has slowed slightly, according to the numbers, but it’s premature to call it a trend or to say it’s bottoming out yet, Schwer said.

“Most states have not been as adversely affected as the housing bubble states (such as Nevada) or the big-ticket manufacturing states (such as Michigan),” Schwer said. “It is more likely that we will not see the first signs of a national recovery in Nevada.”

Consumers are likely to wait until they feel more secure about the economy and their jobs before they start spending money, Schwer said. The rising unemployment rate, job uncertainty and possible income losses have resulted in more conservative spending on cars, housing and other big-ticket items, he said.

Job losses in Nevada show no sign of abating and unemployment is likely to exceed 12 percent, Schwer said.

The local economy will continue to take a hit from the credit crunch. Schwer said. Las Vegas has been more dependent on Wall Street capital than the rest of the country because of the need for financing for casinos and major projects, he said.