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twitterPOLITICAL MEMO:
Heller feels pressure to take on Reid
Steve Marcus
A sign in Ely, Nev., reflects political challenges for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who has weak poll numbers but still lacks an opponent for the 2010 election.
Sunday, June 28, 2009 | 2 a.m.
Sen. Harry Reid
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Rep. Dean Heller
Sen. Harry Reid has publicly expressed empathy for his colleague, Sen. John Ensign, the Nevada Republican enduring a tough period. Ensign recently admitted he had an affair with a woman who was a member of his staff and who is married to a man who was also a member of his staff.
But it’s not difficult to imagine that in Reidville, where politics is served as a garnish for the main dish — still more politics — there’s some happy snickering going on.
Reid is up for reelection in 2010, and he has a fat target on his back. His poll numbers are weak, and national Republicans would love some payback for Reid’s years of hammering Republicans and stymieing their agenda when he was minority leader.
The Ensign scandal is a bit of a gift to Reid, the U.S. Senate majority leader.
Rep. Dean Heller of the 2nd Congressional District is the Republicans’ most prized candidate. GOP senators have been courting him heavily at fancy dinners. It went on so long that the suitors grew restless, according to sources here and in Washington.
Heller had a deadline of June 30 to make up his mind.
Then Ensign’s imbroglio hit, and they told him to take some time.
Still, take a swig or pass the bottle.
“At some point, he has to make a decision,” said Sen. John Thune, R-South Dakota, who replaced Ensign as No. 4 on the GOP leadership ladder.
Politicians tend to be risk averse, and surely Heller must be having second thoughts. Here are the arguments against running:
• Heller and Reid have a warm relationship.
• Heller has other options, including a run for governor or staying where he is on the House Ways and Means Committee. Those are safer plays.
• Running against Reid would entail a long and brutal campaign against the Reid machine, carrying that ‘R’ next to his name, like a scarlet letter. (With Republicans these days, all metaphors seem to be double-entendres.)
The latest voter registration numbers tell the story of how daunting it must look to Heller. Of 4,306 Nevadans who registered to vote from April 1 to May 31, here’s how many marked the Republican box: 148. The Democrats, who already had a 100,000-voter advantage, registered 2,065.
So-called “minor parties” registered 737. (It should be noted that quite a few Democrats were taken off the active voter list, but they still maintained their overall percentage advantage.)
The Reid campaign also announced last week its second set of “Republicans for Reid,” a group that could double as an elite country club: the Fertittas of Station Casinos, MGM Mirage CEO James Murren, old-school power player Richard Bunker, image maven Sig Rogich, first lady Dawn Gibbons, Michael Yackira of NV Energy.
There are two views among Republicans.
Chuck Muth, the conservative activist who has tried to fire up the anti-Reid base, is dejected.
Ensign “destroyed any chance of anyone getting elected to replace Harry Reid,” he said.
He is afraid Heller won’t run now, and does not like the rest of the field.
While acknowledging that there’s always a scenario to beat an incumbent, especially one with such lousy poll numbers, Muth said, “It was Heller or B team.”
Muth suggested a clever response to “Republicans for Reid”: Set up a Web site called “Anybody but Reid” and invite Nevadans to share their scorn. That was two weeks ago, and they’ve done nothing.
Maybe because the Republican Party is without an executive director.
The circus of Ensign and Gov. Jim Gibbons, whose own troubles are legendary, is dispiriting for volunteers, Muth said.
“There’s nothing to excite the base. They’re in a world of hurt and trouble.”
There’s another view, though, and I find it pretty compelling.
“Ensign is not instrumental in the success or failure of someone running against Harry Reid,” said Steve Wark, the Republican consultant.
“He never considered toiling in the fields of the Republican Party to be something he thought he was obligated to do, important or valuable,” Wark said.
This has made it all the easier to throw him overboard.
GOP consultant Robert Uithoven believes the power vacuum creates great opportunity for an ambitious Republican. “The Republican base is craving leadership,” he said.
He points to Ronald Reagan rescuing the party after the disgraced President Richard Nixon and the beaten President Gerald Ford. That era was the last time obituaries were being written about the Republican Party.
Wark likes the idea of a fresh candidate who is unknown. He imagines a retired military officer who did well in the private sector and then semi-retired to Nevada.
The money will flow in from out-of-state from all the Fox News watchers who clench their teeth at the sight of Reid.
In the end though, this discussion is a bit academic.
Bad policy is bad politics. If the policies of the Obama administration, which Reid is shepherding through the Senate, do not improve the economy, Reid will be in deep trouble running against a golden retriever.
And by the looks of it, that’s what Republicans may wind up with.
Sun Washington reporter Lisa Mascaro contributed to this story.
Discussion: 19 comments so far…
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Why don't the Rs just stop the "what ifs" and run Kenny Guinn?
It would be a humiliating defeat for Reid.
Kenny Guinn could never win a Republican primary. HE is pro-choice(never mind that Nevada is one of the most pro-choice states in the nation) and conservatives have hated him since 2003 due to the tax increase. Plus hes up there in age.
The Ensign saga doesn't mean a damned thing when it comest to Reid's election. All elections are a referendum on the incumbents performance and it is not a stretch to say Harry Reid is WAY out of the main stream when it comes to Nevada's electorate.
Harry Reid declared the Iraqi war lost while American boots were still on the ground. The soldiers and their families will not soon forget that.
Harry Reid said we was glad he'd no longer have to "smell" the tourists when they visit the Capitol because the new visitor center will keep them away.
Harry Reid is having to carry the water on Democrat policies like -- record federal deficits, health care reform that will cost average Nevada families lots, energy taxes aka "cap-and-give-a-way", and soon immigration reform that doesn't go over so well here.
Idiots like Muth can say what they want but any good Republican can wipe the mat with Dirty Harry.
1. Guinn left office in 2006 with a 66% approval rating (twice that of Reid right now).
2. The Rs wouldn't make an issue of choice if they had a viable candidate.
3. Guinn's "tax increase" only saved the state from a larger defecit and didn't hurt Titus knocking off Porter.
4. He is 72; Reid is 71.
5. He doesn't have Reid's negative baggage - only a record of responsible leadership.
I'd love to see a poll on this.
.
..
...How about a Christian, Asian, Celtic, Blond haired, Mediterranean, Kosher, Native American, Catholic, Afro- American, atheist trans-gender,
Latino, Hispanic, Chicano, Buddhist, college educated high school drop-out, Eskimo, Vampire mixed candidate.?
...That ought to muster up a republican vote or two...
..
.
"Independent"-
"Harry Reid is WAY out of the main stream when it comes to Nevada's electorate"
Not quite. Nevadans do NOT support continuing, and especially escalating any further, Bush's illegal Iraq occupation. Nevadans do NOT support another irresponsible invasion of Iran. Nevadans DO, however, support universal health care with real choices (like the public option!). Nevadans DO want to solve the climate crisis and rethink our energy plans. Oh yes, and Nevadans DO want comprehensive immigration reform.
If anything, Harry Reid has been too timid in acting on what Nevada voters want. We voted for Barack Obama because we want real, progressive change. Now it's time for Obama & Reid to stand & deliver.
Oh yes, and...
tex-
Don't count on it. Just read the comments on The R-J or from the right-wingers here. The few Republicans left in Nevada want a fire-breather, not a centrist. I doubt Kenny Guinn has any political future as a Republican. He'll probably have to "pull an Arlen Specter" if he runs for anything else again any time in the near future.
We need Rory to run against Harry.
Unfortunately Reid will win, he's got the Greenspun backing and there $$$ to buy the election.
Kenny Guinn, At least he brought both sides together and got things done.
atdleft.
"Harry Reid has been too timid in acting on what Nevada voters want. We voted for Barack Obama because we want real, progressive change. Now it's time for Obama & Reid to stand & deliver."
Sorry, I believe you're way off base here. I've asked a great number of people directly why they voted for Obama. Nearly all of them were voting against more of Bush's policies. "Change" sounded good to them at the time.
What I'm hearing now is that in only 5 months many people believe he's going way too far, way too fast. They were looking for a change from Bush, not a hard acceleration to the extreme left.
Approval ratings will remain high for about a year, depending on the economy. In large part this is because most people are not willing to stand up and say "I was wrong, I got suckered." But as Obama continues his stampede people will be able to say "He's not the man I voted for."
Most Americans, Nevadans included, are fiscally conservative at heart. Ask people if they are in favor of bigger government, huge spending increases, higher taxes to pay for it, more government control, loss of personal liberties, etc.
I would rather vote for the golden retriever!
Mr. Heller should stay where he is for now and stay faithful to his family.
"Chuck Muth, the conservative activist who has tried to fire up the anti-Reid base, is dejected."
So run Chuck run
Obama will help Reid and keep you knuckle draggin' trailer trash from putting some Palin idiot in Senate.
Why dont you all talk about the Promise keeper Christian Right John Adultery Ensign?
Republicans are dinosaurs.
It could of been a long drought for Republicans but the Democrats are so drunk with power they will hand it back in a shorter period of time than anyone expected. It will come even quicker if a strong, young Republican leader steps forward. Harry Reid is a national traitor with his "The war is lost" proclamation and should be defeated.
Bush lost the war. Face it.
America wants healthcare not war with Iraq.
Republicans are liars and cheats. Ensign is a visual aid
The photo of the Ely local insurance business located on a highway that runs through town, exemplefies "ties" politically. The artist, Larry Butte, who was commissioned to paint the mural on the building, may love having his work publicized, but may be having some heartburn being associated with the message. I have been acquainted with Reid, Reid Jr., Quinn, and Heller, and they have our state and country's citizen at heart. It would be an even race, tough to bet on who wins, if it happened. If Southern Nevada is remotely curious of the type of voters there is in Northern Nevada, just follow media as the Ely News or others online!
Harry Reid may not be the best, but is the best you Republicans can do is Dean Heller? You ought to be ashamed in more ways than one. We have crappy Jim Gibbons for Governor because the state is mostly Repub and doesn't pay attention. Thank God his term is almost up and here's hoping he will be a one time gov. Don't back another sleaze like Heller. Harry at least gives Nevada a little clout.
The GOP cannot field a candidate that can defeat Harry in 2010. It's not that far off in the future, and the voting public's memory still is fresh with the present GOP quagmire. Now, if only we could move it to 2012 . . . . hmmm. . .