A governor’s race where unusual dynamics are at play

By Jon Ralston

Friday, June 5, 2009 | 2:01 a.m.

Now that the countdown clock for the 2010 gubernatorial race has begun (one year until the primary!) as the legislative session mercifully has expired, it’s time to pull back the curtain and expose one of the most bizarre dynamics in Nevada political history, a situation that could subvert all conventional wisdom.

Consider: Clark County Commission Chairman Rory Reid is posing as the frontrunner in the race against Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley, possessing a couple of million dollars plus and a first-class campaign team. But it is highly unlikely his father, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, as some might conventionally believe, is thrilled to have his son on the ballot. Are two Reids better than one? How will that issue affect both candidacies?

Consider: The Republican Party confronts a political corpse as governor but one who believes he can reanimate himself through his Veto to Victory Tour. If Jim Gibbons runs, with two primary opponents already visible, the GOP is faced with the prospect of the incumbent winning the primary — then being destroyed by the Democratic nominee. Could The Man Formerly Known as Governor rebound? Or will his very presence give the GOP Ø chance of victory?

Consider: There is a potential nightmare scenario for Democrats, one that could undermine every advantage the party has going into 2010. That would be the Double Whammy Dream — Rep. Dean Heller files against Reid the Elder and federal Judge Brian Sandoval files for governor. A Heller/Sandoval ticket would be formidable as both men, arguably, would become favorites in those races — and if not favorites, immediately competitive and able to change the political dynamic. Could it happen? Or is this a fantasy from Republicans who have no one to challenge Reid the Elder and who fear an anointment of Reid the Younger?

You see why the 2010 gubernatorial race — and the synergy with the U.S. Senate contest — might quicken a pundit’s pulse. Indeed, the strange phenomenon of each party thinking it can target a Dead Man Walking in the state’s two major offices — Gibbons’ numbers appear to be fatal and Reid the Elder’s put him on life support — creates myriad possibilities.

Reid the Younger’s flawless execution (so far) of the anointment manual may not be enough to scare off Buckley. She sounded as determined as ever toward the end of the session, undaunted by the prospect of major donors losing her phone number now that her legislative career is over. And there is some polling data out there that indicates she may be the frontrunner.

But Buckley, as indomitable as she is, will have a huge financial deficit. And though she may hope for a primary race analagous to Dina Titus-Jim Gibson in 2006, she is not Titus (not as much faithful ardor in the primary or voter disdain in the general) and he is not Jim Gibson (not as many negatives, although his Clark County Commission title may be devastating).

A more interesting question than whether Buckley will elect not to run (I think she will) is whether Reid the Elder makes any moves to get his son out of the race for his benefit. The key to all of this may be Heller.

He would be a national GOP star during the 2010 campaign and an up-and-comer in the U.S. Senate should he win. Very tempting — and he is being tempted by D.C. and local folks. But does Heller risk everything to go up against Nevada’s most fearsome pol? He has other choices — he wanted to run for governor 12 years ago and bowed out in front of the Guinn anointment.

(Maybe Prince Harry will make the Machiavellian move of sending Heller the message to get into the governor’s race, thus persuading his son to get out, and promising the congressman he will not get involved for Buckley? I don’t think even Reid the Elder could pull that one off.)

I still find it hard to believe Sandoval would give up a lifetime appointment for a relatively uncertain race for governor in a state that has dramatically changed since he was attorney general. But I hear he has not ruled it out.

Gibbons, though, sounds as if he is running and clearly hopes his Veto to Victory Tour will solidify his base — and if the economy stays sour and he can disingenuously tie it to the tax increase, who knows what could happen?

That new June primary will help nominees recover from image- and money-depleting primaries. Much can happen in the coming interregnum, locally and nationally. But by Labor Day, we should know a lot more about those strange top-of-ticket races that will ripple down the ballot and define the election.