Finally, it’s fight night for UFC 100

Sam Morris

Brock Lesnar tips the scales 265 pounds for his fight against Frak Mir at the weigh-in for UFC 100.

By Jeff Haney (contact)

Saturday, July 11, 2009 | 2 a.m.

Heavyweight title

Despite Frank Mir’s victory by first-round submission in their first fight, in February 2008, Brock Lesnar was installed as a minus 220 betting favorite (risk $2.20 to net $1) in today’s headliner, with the price on Mir listed at plus 180 (risk $1 to net $1.80). The line that really jumps off the betting board, however, is the price of 2-1 on Lesnar winning in the first round — by far the shortest odds in the round proposition, according to the Venetian sports book on the Strip. Lesnar did control the tempo in much of the first bout before Mir caught him in a kneebar and forced the tapout. The other odds in the round prop range from 9-2 (Lesnar in Round 2) to 24-1 (Mir in Round 5).

Welterweight title

Although Thiago Alves enters the co-feature on a seven-fight winning streak, early betting action has favored Georges St-Pierre, who has earned a reputation as one of the top all-around fighters in mixed martial arts. The price on St. Pierre opened around minus 300 and has drifted up to the range of minus 320 to minus 330. Oddsmakers and the betting marketplace like St. Pierre to win by five-round decision, a 7-2 choice in the round proposition.

Middleweight clash

Another good match pits leading middleweight contenders Michael Bisping and Dan Henderson, rival coaches on the ninth season of “The Ultimate Fighter” reality-competition show. Though Henderson, coming off a split-decision victory against Rich Franklin in January, remains a solid favorite, bettors seem to have spotted some value on the underdog Bisping. After opening as high as minus 270, the odds on Henderson have been adjusted to as low as minus 220 on Henderson in Las Vegas casinos. The takeback on Bisping, who fights out of Great Britain, stands at plus 190.

Shop around

The odds on UFC bouts, particularly those on a deep card such as UFC 100, tend to undergo substantial adjustments as fight time approaches, based on money coming in at the betting windows. There’s no guarantee bettors will find any “scalping” opportunities on UFC 100 fights — that is, taking advantage of moves in the line to bet both sides in a fight in order to lock in a profit or set up a no-risk chance at a little score — but it will likely be possible to bet with little or no “vigorish” by looking around Las Vegas for the best numbers.

For example, at the same time this week bettors who like Yoshihiro Akiyama could find him as low as minus 240 at the Las Vegas Hilton (as opposed to minus 270 to minus 300 elsewhere), and those who like Alan Belcher in the same fight could find him at plus 230 at the Venetian (as opposed to plus 190 elsewhere).

Quickest win

Perhaps the most creative betting proposition on UFC 100 asks which fighter will record the “fastest win” of the night. The entire card is included in the prop offered at the Venetian, with odds offered on 15 individual fighters plus the “field,” or all other fighters not listed. Brock Lesnar is a decided favorite at odds of 3-1, followed by Frank Mir and Jon Jones, each at 6-1. Though Jones’ two UFC bouts have each ended in a three-round decision, before he joined the organization he registered five consecutive first-round stoppages in MMA fights last year.