Upsets shake up NFL betting lines

By Jeff Haney

Thursday, Jan. 15, 2009 | 2 a.m.

Two upsets in the NFC divisional playoffs this past weekend shook up the odds on the remaining teams to win the Super Bowl as well as the projected betting line in the big game itself, according to the latest odds from the Las Vegas Hilton sports book.

After knocking out the Giants as a 4-point underdog, the Eagles had their odds to win the Super Bowl drop to 11-5 heading into the conference championships Sunday. Philadelphia had been listed at 10-1 after the conclusion of the regular season, tied for fifth among the 12 playoff teams, according to Hilton odds.

After upending the Panthers as a 10-point underdog, the Cardinals’ odds fell to 5-1 heading into Sunday’s game against the Eagles. The Cardinals were installed at 50-1 to win the Super Bowl, the longest shot on the board, before the playoffs began.

The Steelers are an 8-5 favorite to win the Super Bowl on Feb. 1 in Tampa, with the Ravens listed at 3-1 on the Hilton’s updated line.

The Giants had been a 5-2 Super Bowl favorite before their loss, so their ouster — combined with the possibility that heretofore lowly Arizona could end up as the NFC’s representative in the big game — prompted a sizable adjustment in the betting line on the Super Bowl. Gamblers can bet the AFC team minus 3 points against the NFC right now, according to the Hilton’s odds, or play the over/under of 43 1/2 points in the Super Bowl. That line was “pick ’em” at this time last week.

Fez on

Following a superb football betting season, Fezzik, the one-name Las Vegas professional gambler, warned against putting any stock in the outlandish, yet unfortunately common, claims of touts who “promise” to achieve winning percentages against the point spread of 60 percent or even higher.

Fezzik won the “SuperContest” handicapping challenge at the Las Vegas Hilton ($1,500 entry fee), going 54-26-5, 67.5 percent against the spread, for a top prize of $210,000 and a $10,000 bonus for exceeding 67 percent. In a similar contest at South Point ($2,500 entry fee, $250,000 prize pool), Fezzik’s two entries finished in a four-way tie for first place. Both contests entail picking NFL games against the point spread each week of the regular season.

“The best handicappers in the world, the very, very best, try to hit 55 percent lifetime, maybe just slightly under 55 percent,” Fezzik said. “In one season, they’re just as likely to hit 45 percent as they are 65 percent. So the year you have an unlucky year and you hit 45 percent, you’re an idiot. When you have a monster year and you hit 65 percent, all of a sudden everybody jumps back on the bandwagon. And the truth is, it’s just variance. It’s like winning a poker tournament. The cards have to hit you right between the eyes.

“You do have to get lucky. One big reason I won is I opened 14-1 in the Hilton contest, and I ended up needing every one of those wins by the end.”

Besides that, it’s great

The latest edition of the Blackjack Insider newsletter (bjinsider.com) contains a comprehensive report titled “Counting Cards in Reno” written by a Las Vegas advantage player who goes by the nom de gambling “LV Bear.” He doesn’t hold back in describing Diamonds casino on Sixth Street: “The worst place in Reno ... This place makes Cal-Neva look like Bellagio. Diamonds is unplayable at any stakes. Preferential shuffling is rampant, even against tiny stakes players, who would otherwise be the only ones who could play there because of the $100 table max. Stay away, unless you have morbid curiosity for the seedy side of life.” (Preferential shuffling refers to the practice of the dealer’s shuffling the deck and starting a new round of play when a bettor increases the size of his or her wager.)

Other Reno-area joints, such as Atlantis, the Peppermill and John Ascuaga’s Nugget, received much more favorable notices.

Accountability corner

Las Vegas handicapper Joe D’Amico went 3-2 against the point spread in his five bowl-game selections released in the Sun. D’Amico had winners with Oregon against Oklahoma State; Utah against Alabama; and Florida against Oklahoma in the BCS championship game. His misfires came on Georgia Tech against LSU, and Cal against Miami.

Three of my four predictions released in the Sun in NFL regular-season victory over/under wagering were winners: the Bills under 8 victories; the Broncos over 7 1/2; and the Raiders under 6 1/2. The loser was the Chargers over 10 1/2. According to terms described in the column (Aug. 15, 2008), 1 hypothetical unit was risked on each of the four wagers. This resulted in a net victory of 1.17 units, because the price on each of the winning bets ranged from minus 120 on the Bills to minus 150 on the Broncos.

My first two NFL playoff predictions released on “All In” (5:30 p.m. Thursdays, VegasTV, Cox cable channel 14) were winners: the Cardinals against the Panthers and the “under” in the Eagles-Giants game.