Health care jobs jump despite downturn

By Nicole Lucht

Friday, Feb. 20, 2009 | 2 a.m.

If Nevada is a boom-or-bust state, the economic meter is clearly pointing at bust.

But despite cuts in Nevada’s leading industries, the health care business continues to create jobs, fueled by another boom: The aging of Baby Boomers.

In Nevada, the health care industry is expected to gain 11,700 jobs from 2007 to 2011, while the retail and hospitality sectors are each expected to lose more than 12,000 jobs over the five-year span, according to a recent forecast by the state’s Employment, Training and Rehabilitation Department.

The construction industry is expected to be the hardest hit in the state economists’ forecast, shedding 38,800 jobs during that time period.

The forecast was based on demographics and the assumption of population growth, said Jered McDonald, a state economist.

From 2008 to 2028, the state’s population is expected to grow by 1.3 million people, mostly in Clark County, according to the state demographer’s office.

Population expectations for those 65 and older are for an increase of 20.3 percent, from 308,300 in 2007 to 371,000 in 2011.

And as Baby Boomers get older, they require more health care services.

UNLV economist Keith Schwer said that the aging of Baby Boomers would affect the entire health care industry, not just particular sectors. He concurred that the demand on health care will increase as the population ages.

However, despite health care’s expected growth, don’t expect it to offset other industries’ job losses, he said.

Overall, state economists expect roughly 89,000 jobs will be lost from 2008 to 2010. In 2011 the state expects almost 13,000 jobs to be created across the state, except in real estate and construction, which are both expected to continue losing jobs.

Statewide, health care jobs grew 13.5 percent, from 78,600 jobs in May 2005 to 89,200 jobs in December, according to Nevada’s Employment Department.

Nationwide, full-time jobs in health care also grew 13.5 percent, from 12.6 million in 2002 to 14.3 million in 2007, according to the U.S. Commerce Department.

“We don’t expect that (forecasted) increase in any of the other (growth) areas to pick up for that,” Schwer said. “If the unemployment rate continues to rise, overall there’s more jobs lost than jobs created.”

Nevada’s unemployment rate in December hit 9.1 percent, a 25-year high for the state. Nationally, the unemployment rate is 7.6 percent.

On the national level, health care employment gained 19,000 jobs in January, continuing its upward trend, reported the Labor Statistics Bureau. In 2008 the industry gained 30,000 jobs a month, according to the bureau.

Families with young children and pregnant women are also placing demand on the health care industry, Southern Hills Hospital Chief Executive Mike Johnson said. Women’s services — such as obstetrics — and pediatrics are also highly used at the hospital, he said.

But even so, economists’ forecasts can be a bit misleading, he said.

“When you say health care jobs, you have to be thinking about pharmacies, nursing homes, home health and rehabilitation, and hospitals and physician offices — see what I’m saying?” Johnson said. “So it encompasses a lot of different things. Those numbers are also predicated on some growth assumptions of population, that may or may not come to fruition as a result of the economy.”

Those assumptions, he said, are based on an aging population.

“Over the next 10 to 15 years, you’re going to have more and more Baby Boomers who are hitting 65 and they require more health services,” he said. “So, yeah, there will be a growth of jobs, but the distribution of jobs, which will be interesting to watch, a lot of it is really driven by population and age.

“That’s an issue our whole country will be facing,” said Johnson, who is also a registered nurse and specializes in geriatrics.

In 2008 health care spending nationwide reached $2.4 trillion, and is projected to reach $3.1 trillion in 2012, according to a report by the National Coalition on Health Care. By 2016 spending on health care is expected to reach $4.3 trillion.

In 2008 the United States spent 17 percent of its gross domestic product on health care, a number projected to reach 20 percent by 2017.