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twitterOpinion:
Are two Reids too many?
Jon Ralston considers staggering polling numbers that show father may drag down son’s chances to be governor
Sunday, Aug. 23, 2009 | 2 a.m.
Sometimes one plus one can equal zero.
In 2010 that potential equation — call it Reid math — could spell problems for Reid the Elder, Reid the Younger and the entire Democratic ticket. Some insiders are wondering if two Reids on the ticket — Harry and Rory — are not only not better than one, but could result in no Reids in office come 2011.
That sound you hear is of Republicans frothing at the prospect, one that is coming into more public view with the release of polling data that show Senate Majority Leader Reid losing to GOP opponents and County Commissioner Reid getting obliterated by primary and general election foes. The Mason Dixon polling, recently completed for the nondescript wrapping paper that encases the Pulitzer-winning Las Vegas Sun, is confirmed by other data I am aware of, especially in the governor’s race.
That Harry Reid’s numbers are abysmal and that he would be losing to a fill-in-the-blank Republican are not surprises. But that Rory Reid is being crushed by Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley, Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman and Brian Sandoval (who hasn’t even announced yet) will stun some who have considered him The Anointed One and who know he has been a fundraising dynamo with about $3 million garnered.
The numbers:
Goodman, 34 percent; Buckley, 25 percent; Reid, 13 percent in a three-way primary — a scenario that has almost no chance of occurring, but still reveals Reid the Younger’s weakness.
Buckley, 43; Reid, 22 in a two-way — unlikely (Madame Speaker has shown little interest in a campaign, although these numbers might change her mind), but revelatory.
And in a prospective general election matchup, Sandoval has a 17 percentage point lead over Reid, 49-32.
The caveats are obvious: It’s 436 days until the election, the proverbial eternity, and Reid the Younger may have more money than any other contender and may not have a primary. Reid the Younger put it thusly: “I will have the best organization, superior resources and most thoughtful vision for the future. The campaign has not started yet.”
Those bold declarations, though, are actually wishful thinking — wishes that may come true but could easily not. And what the county commissioner and the U.S. senator must confront is that the poll reveals just how weak they both are going into Campaign 2010.
We know why Harry Reid is so vulnerable — Reid fatigue spreading, charisma transplant lacking and Democratic numbers sagging. But what this poll reveals — and what others confirm — is that the elder Reid is a drag on the younger Reid. And what is reasonable speculation is that Reid the Younger hurts Reid the Elder, who has little margin for error as it is and certainly doesn’t need chatter about dynasties and political manipulation.
Thus the possibility of that Reid math playing out has to be worrying both men and Democrats who might fear a drag on the ticket if the top two nominees have the same name — a name that could doubly energize Republicans to turn out in November 2010.
Reid the Younger may be undaunted now, but he should be worried because of three negatives showing up in these polls, at least two of which are difficult to mitigate, even with millions of dollars. To wit:
• His last name: Rory Reid may be fairly well known in Southern Nevada, but no one knows who he is outside of Clark County. Thus all of his dad’s negatives will attach and be difficult to discard.
• His title: Polling indicates that people hear someone is a Clark County commissioner and they think of corruption. The G-Sting hangover continues, and there is a reason that father once told son not to run for what he called a political boneyard.
• His dearth of accomplishments: This is the only one he has a chance to do much about. Some of it isn’t Reid the Younger’s fault — most county commissioners aren’t known for much of anything. He may be playing the “I’m not really in the race yet” game now. But unless he gets in the game, aligns himself with some resonating issues and shows folks he is committed, this third anchor will weigh him down.
It’s unclear, in this reverse symbiosis, who is damaged more — the son by the father’s presence or vice versa. But these numbers — and others — indicate they do not help each other.
And so we have a math problem that will take more than a year to solve. By November 2010, we will know whether one plus one equals two, one or, in the worst case for Democrats, zero.
Jon Ralston hosts the news discussion program “Face to Face With Jon Ralston” on Las Vegas ONE and publishes the daily e-mail newsletter “RalstonFlash.com.” His column for the Las Vegas Sun appears Sunday, Wednesday and Friday.
Discussion: 20 comments so far…
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Is Rory even old enough to shave yet?
Another good opinion Jon.
Question: Are two Reids too many?
Answer: Absolutely Yes.
One is too many!
Chris G for Governor!
Simple questions require simple answers:
1) Are two Reids too many? Yes.
2) Is one Ensign too many? Yes.
3) Is one Gibbons too many? Yes.
Family politics ought to skip at least one generation.
Political idiots ought to skip even the first generation.
John,
Come on, why don't you ask the elected officials the tough questions about town hall meetings. You also work for the people in an indirect manner. If journalist like you don't demand tough questions of elected officials who will. I have never seen such a group of low caliber elected officials in Nevada. Maybe public office should be reserved for true intellectuals.....Good article.
JS
Socrates,
Shut your trap with that Chris G for governor. You probably have never even read Plato's Republic....HA,hahahahaha.....LOSER
JS
The Reids epitomize what is wrong with politics in this country. It's like the Kennedy's and Bush's, politics become the family "business". Politics become a way to enrich themselves and they do whatever they can to hold on to an office until they are ready to hand it off to the next generation of family members. Time to end the cycle for the Reids.
Nevada needs another Reid like it needs another casino!Just once,i would like to see a politition do what they say they are gonna do!Thatta boy Harry.
Yeah, let's put all the Reids on an island with an active volcano...
They're dragging each other down. With Harry, its simply candidate fatigue. The same thing happened to Marion Cuomo in New York in 1994.
2-2 = 0
vote accordingly!
Jon, I'm seeing this (and hearing the same sort of comments) from many - we agree!
Additonally, we Democrats have a mountain to climb in re-building our base to support so many lower ticket candidates! We're looking at doing all we can to re-elect incumbents AND win back the Governor's Mansion, AND the Lt. Gov. seat, hold onto our State Constitutional seats AND not only fill Democratic seats being emptied by term limits, but ALSO expand our majorities in the State Legislature (both the State Assembly and State Senate) - WHOA, now THAT is going to be a tough task indeed!
I'm just hoping enough of our people are doing the basic math when it comes to how many really good volunteers we're going to need to get up to speed and working efficiently - and, then, there's the money donor's factor in a down economy? And we will not have millions of dollars and thousands of vounteers pouring into Nevada as we did during the 2008 Presidential cycle - this is a mid-term election people!
All we can do is get serious, early on, and do as much as we can to recruit, orient, train, build and build and build on our base! At the end of the 2010 cycle, whatever the numbers come in as, only then, are we going to be able to say "we did our best" and accept the statistical facts for what they are - truly, Nevada is about to re-set their political reality in the present!
And, then, there's the 2010 Census and the reality of re-districting, to include a possible new Congressional District #4 being created?
Everyone needs to get ready for a roller-coaster ride like Nevada has never, ever seen before (we are on our own people)!
Two Reids are not too many, provided they communicate effeciently and can task to create better outcomes for Nevada's citizens.
One Reid is way too many. Harry has devolved over the years into nothing more than the caricature of a party-line-toeing political hack. Sure, he has done a few things for Nevada, but he had to in order to not commit political suicide. The remainder of what he has done in recent years is nothing more and nothing less than party politics, and his actions will severly damage this nation for generations to come. His blind ambition to rise to a position of power in his party has brought him to the point of being a complete joke - a bad joke for which you, me, our children and grand-children will have to pay dearly.
Rory has done nowhere near the damage that dear old dad has done. Of course, he operates on a much smaller scale, he is still young and there is lots of time. The best that can be said for him is that he has been an average mangager, but managers are not always leaders, and Rory is no leader. We need leaders, not more bureaucrats who make carreers of politics, enriching their friends and gorging themselves at the public trough.
It seems the major problem with the Reids (and nearly every other politician in this state in any party) is that they don't think they were elected. They believe their handlers, fawning staff and campaign supporters, and they think they were crowned, perhaps even annointed! All hail to the U.S. version of "aristocracy". We thought we did away with that 200 years ago. God forbid they would have the same health plans or retirement plans they shove down our throats. They smile while they feed us crap and tell us it is caviar. I can hardly believe they even breathe the same air as the great unwashed proletariat they only represent only in title.
Maybe the gal from Alaska could come and save you guys there in Vegas.
James in Montana
Joseph Stalin would be a better choice than any "Reid"
The apple doesn't fall far from the tree!!
Harry Reid is serving with dignity and deserves respect. The angry mob theatrics of the wrong-wing party is just that, theatrics. It is unfortunate that when they have no answers and no issues other than "we can't tax our millionaires" or take back unearned deductions from super-wealthy and those hiding money overseas that it comes to a point that can be called nothing but mean-spirited and counterproductive to the future of the country.
We need to undersand how much the big ceos are reaping from the labours of the working class and how little they want to pay for that--nothing. We need the major companies in this country rewarded with great profits are treating their employees and the general public fairly.
CEOs of insurance companies, Wall Street thieves and big Pharmaceuticals have taken and taken and taken but they haven't given back. They will stomp on every one to assure the profit motive (which is not inherently wrong, except when it comes to health care). Profits based health care is destructive and should not be legal. Health care must have a higher motive!
Do Not count your chickens before they hatch. Both Harry and Rory Reid have been and will be good for Nevada. They are thinking men who are not full of BS, and they do not spout the "Big Lie" as the pseudo republicans do. So, what do you want-a big mouth liar or a quiet, thinking man that does not make rash, costly decisions? Yes to Harry and yes to Rory!