Are two Reids too many?

By Jon Ralston

Sunday, Aug. 23, 2009 | 2 a.m.

Sometimes one plus one can equal zero.

In 2010 that potential equation — call it Reid math — could spell problems for Reid the Elder, Reid the Younger and the entire Democratic ticket. Some insiders are wondering if two Reids on the ticket — Harry and Rory — are not only not better than one, but could result in no Reids in office come 2011.

That sound you hear is of Republicans frothing at the prospect, one that is coming into more public view with the release of polling data that show Senate Majority Leader Reid losing to GOP opponents and County Commissioner Reid getting obliterated by primary and general election foes. The Mason Dixon polling, recently completed for the nondescript wrapping paper that encases the Pulitzer-winning Las Vegas Sun, is confirmed by other data I am aware of, especially in the governor’s race.

That Harry Reid’s numbers are abysmal and that he would be losing to a fill-in-the-blank Republican are not surprises. But that Rory Reid is being crushed by Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley, Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman and Brian Sandoval (who hasn’t even announced yet) will stun some who have considered him The Anointed One and who know he has been a fundraising dynamo with about $3 million garnered.

The numbers:

Goodman, 34 percent; Buckley, 25 percent; Reid, 13 percent in a three-way primary — a scenario that has almost no chance of occurring, but still reveals Reid the Younger’s weakness.

Buckley, 43; Reid, 22 in a two-way — unlikely (Madame Speaker has shown little interest in a campaign, although these numbers might change her mind), but revelatory.

And in a prospective general election matchup, Sandoval has a 17 percentage point lead over Reid, 49-32.

The caveats are obvious: It’s 436 days until the election, the proverbial eternity, and Reid the Younger may have more money than any other contender and may not have a primary. Reid the Younger put it thusly: “I will have the best organization, superior resources and most thoughtful vision for the future. The campaign has not started yet.”

Those bold declarations, though, are actually wishful thinking — wishes that may come true but could easily not. And what the county commissioner and the U.S. senator must confront is that the poll reveals just how weak they both are going into Campaign 2010.

We know why Harry Reid is so vulnerable — Reid fatigue spreading, charisma transplant lacking and Democratic numbers sagging. But what this poll reveals — and what others confirm — is that the elder Reid is a drag on the younger Reid. And what is reasonable speculation is that Reid the Younger hurts Reid the Elder, who has little margin for error as it is and certainly doesn’t need chatter about dynasties and political manipulation.

Thus the possibility of that Reid math playing out has to be worrying both men and Democrats who might fear a drag on the ticket if the top two nominees have the same name — a name that could doubly energize Republicans to turn out in November 2010.

Reid the Younger may be undaunted now, but he should be worried because of three negatives showing up in these polls, at least two of which are difficult to mitigate, even with millions of dollars. To wit:

• His last name: Rory Reid may be fairly well known in Southern Nevada, but no one knows who he is outside of Clark County. Thus all of his dad’s negatives will attach and be difficult to discard.

• His title: Polling indicates that people hear someone is a Clark County commissioner and they think of corruption. The G-Sting hangover continues, and there is a reason that father once told son not to run for what he called a political boneyard.

• His dearth of accomplishments: This is the only one he has a chance to do much about. Some of it isn’t Reid the Younger’s fault — most county commissioners aren’t known for much of anything. He may be playing the “I’m not really in the race yet” game now. But unless he gets in the game, aligns himself with some resonating issues and shows folks he is committed, this third anchor will weigh him down.

It’s unclear, in this reverse symbiosis, who is damaged more — the son by the father’s presence or vice versa. But these numbers — and others — indicate they do not help each other.

And so we have a math problem that will take more than a year to solve. By November 2010, we will know whether one plus one equals two, one or, in the worst case for Democrats, zero.

Jon Ralston hosts the news discussion program “Face to Face With Jon Ralston” on Las Vegas ONE and publishes the daily e-mail newsletter “RalstonFlash.com.” His column for the Las Vegas Sun appears Sunday, Wednesday and Friday.