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twitterTOURISM:
Among swine flu’s unknowns: Impact here
Tuesday, April 28, 2009 | 2 a.m.
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Sun Archives
- 40 U.S. swine flue cases confirmed; none in Nevada (4-27-2009)
- No reports of swine flu in Nevada (4-26-09)
- New swine flu case confirmed in California, none in Nevada (4-24-2009)
- Swine flu cases put Nevada health officials on alert (4-23-2009)
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- Los Angeles Times: Swine flu outbreak adds to Mexican tourism woes
- Associated Press: Drugmaker shares rise on swine-flu outbreak
It was as if we had made the cosmic mistake of asking what more could go wrong for tourism.
Ah, yes — swine flu.
Just what tourism needed.
On Monday, we awoke to the news that the European Union’s health commissioner was recommending that people avoid all unnecessary travel to Mexico, where the sometimes lethal outbreak started, and the United States, where it has spread. The World Health Organization raised its alert level to four. An alert level of six is a global pandemic. Cable news ran swine flu updates all day. You run into people who say they saw someone equipping himself for air travel with a sterile mask and taking Xanax to settle his nerves.
The Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority declined to comment.
Some countries have announced they will quarantine sick visitors, and others are banning pork, even though you can’t catch swine flu from cooked pig meat. A casual observer would be inclined to think one of the four horsemen of the apocalypse has escaped from the stables. One wonders what this will do to the Las Vegas economy and hotel occupancy.
(And later, guiltily, one wonders about planet occupancy.)
To figure out, we asked a couple of medical historians how bad this flu epidemic is likely to get, based on the history and the science. Is this the sniffles or the plague?
Their answer: Life is an adventure, epidemiology especially so.
Howard Markel, an M.D. and a Ph.D., is the director of the University of Michigan’s Center for the History of Medicine, the author of “When Germs Travel” and the lead author of a study of the Spanish influenza pandemic of 1918-20, which killed 50 million people worldwide. We asked him, Could that happen again?
Sure, but the real questions are which influenza strain will it be, when will it break out and will we recognize a killer when it comes. “Predicting influenza pandemics is virtually impossible. They fool us all the time,” Markel said.
The problem is ignorance.
Consider the last swine flu scare in the U.S. In 1976 at the Fort Dix army base in New Jersey, four soldiers came down with the flu and one died. Soon, several hundred soldiers were sick. The virus was identified as a strain of the H1N1 influenza subtype. (The current swine flu is also an H1N1 strain.) At the time, some believed the virus was the reincarnation of the lethal Spanish influenza. The public health apparatus shifted into overdrive. The government launched a national inoculation program.
A rare side effect of the vaccine killed 25 people. The vaccination program was halted, and the pandemic never came.
But was the inoculation program a mistake? It’s hard to say.
“The thing is, if you’re not overcautious, then you’re probably under-cautious, and you don’t really want to do that when you’re talking about people’s lives and a possible pandemic,” Markel says.
The problem is, when an outbreak starts, it’s almost impossible to know how bad it will get.
Here’s what little we know about the 2009 swine flu: It has been blamed for 2,000 infections and 149 deaths in Mexico (the World Health Organization can confirm 26 infections and 7 deaths). In the U.S., 45 cases of the flu had been confirmed by Monday evening, and one person had been hospitalized. The flu had been found in five U.S. states — California, Kansas, New York, Ohio and Texas — and abroad. There are six confirmed cases in Canada and one in Spain, which resulted in hospitalization. Scotland is claiming nine infections and two hospitalizations.
But there is so much we don’t know.
For instance, we don’t really know how many cases of swine flu there have been in Mexico. The government says 2,000, but what if 10,000 or 20,000 people got a mild fever and never went to the hospital? That changes the lethality of the strain. One hundred forty-nine deaths out of 2,000 is a mortality rate of more than 7 percent — as bad as the 1918 flu. On the other hand, if there were 20,000 cases, the rate is 0.7 percent, which is on par with a really bad seasonal flu. And the cases in the United States seem much more mild. Is the virus more lethal in Mexico because of some co-infection or a medication used — or is it that there are very few U.S. cases so far and we’ve been lucky?
These are just a few of the more important gaps in our knowledge.
That said, Markel believes the reaction of public health agencies has been just right (so far).
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is helping to investigate the outbreak in Mexico and has freed up emergency supplies of antiviral medication. It has also recommended that people take such common-sense measures as covering their mouths when they cough, washing their hands and staying home from work and school when they are sick. The World Health Organization has advised against international travel restrictions, saying the virus has spread widely enough that containment is a moot point. And, by the end of the day, the European Union appeared to backtrack from the advice of its health commissioner.
And the effect on tourism (so far)?
MGM Mirage spokesman Alan Feldman said he’s not aware of anyone canceling reservations in a swine flu panic.
But, he noted morosely, “CNN already has graphics and theme music.”
Discussion: 24 comments so far…
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news people should keep us informed, not overkill.
If cooked properly, you can not get swine flu from Alan Feldman.
Let's see; we fly people here from all over the world, non-stop, 24-7. Then we drive them all down to the resort corridor, where they mingle in VERY close proximity. Representative numbers from our local populace go down to the resort corridor to work and play. Mostly to work. At shifts end, worker's go home, mingle with their own families. Then our children go off to school, families go to church, the grocery store, the gym etc., completing the chain of events that spreads nastiness over the valley.
Will it come here? Will it affect tourism?
Will the sun set in the west?
I would, however, suggest the big casinos not waste this valuable opportunity for shameless self-promotion. I'm envisioning all the slot players wearing masks bearing fancy logos from our famous establishments, with slogans like "I went to Vegas & couldn't catch a cold!"
mucho el cerdo cinco de mayo....
via las vegas!
Hey all. Today on Face to Face with Jon Ralston, we're talking about local and state reaction to the swine flu outbreak with Southern Nevada Health District Chief Health Officer Dr. Lawrence Sands and State Assemblywoman Debbie Smith (Washoe-D). That's at 5:30pm, 6:30pm and 8:00pm on Las Vegas ONE, Cox Cable Channel 19.
Ok the fact that a lot of people don't or can't go to the doctor means this thing is way under reported. Then if you want to be tested for it you better have another $300 cash cause the insurance companies don't cover it. Besides if we had an out break here the powers that be would never want anyone to know. We don't wanna run off any gamblers or keep them from coming. It seems that the news is focused on this flu as being out of control. I hope its all just because they can't find anything else important to tell us.
Hey LasVegas2009, I'm just dipping in here with a quick question so I can better understand your remark. You suggest that the swine flu outbreak is "way under reported" and then you say that the flu is being reported as "out of control." I think you ought to stick with one theory or another but I'm not sure you can have it both ways. Tom.
It's way under reported by people who actually have it. The numbers are more than likely higher because a lot of people don't have insurance so they stay home.
Its over reported in the news, every news outlet in the country is screaming fire.
I could care less what you think TOM.
LV2009 is the fool who tells everyone that if you leave your upside down house, you will have your wages garnished and you will have to pay the difference between your mortgage balance and the auction price. All of which is ignorant blabbery. Totally wrong. Believe nothing that he writes.
Panic! SARS! Y2K! Swine Flu.
What a bunch of wasteful crap.
"I could care less what you think TOM."
That means you do care. I think couldn't care less is what you're going for here, otherwise you'll give Mr. Gorman the wrong impression.
All kinds of non-essential travel will cut back. This will hurt the airlines and the hotels ending up particularly bad in Las Vegas.
I have a friend who's husband is in the Military in Las Vegas, he had all the symptoms and went to the base hospital, the doctor didn't even see him and the nurse gave him sudafed and sent him home. Should'nt he have been checked, high fever, sore throat, cough.
timemist,
That's pretty common for military hospitals.
A gallon of water and some 800 mg motrins will solve anything in their eyes.
thanks timemist.
has anyone else in the area had the flu or know of anyone that has? seems like there should be more local reporting on this. such as what is going on at the hospitals? either positive or negative would be useful information and help stop rumors from spreading.
just another reason to stop the mass entry of illegals into this counrty that may be bringing in who knows what
Why not shut down the borders already? I don't want to read articles about people flying into McCarran from Mexico--talk about idiotic.
It's one thing to start controlling those who are sneaking in across the border, it's another thing entirely to just willingly let them fly into the country! That one is easy to control. The economy's already in the crapper, how much more damage could closing the border do? Not more than if a ton of people in this country get sick!
This is how it works...you go to Mexico get infected,come to the US infect more.Hop a plane to Houston and infect some there...then head home to Europe.This is true of ANY health issue.Problem is...Mexico DID NOT react until the reports of the first deaths started rolling in.By then this was in full swing.Obviously people will think twice about Las Vegas with the large amount of mexicans...legal and illegal mostly serving the hotels. Crusies are closing down.The US though has a better reporting system in place to pick up at any situation developing.The CDC looks at everything.My hat is off to them.
Hmmm... swine flu - I think Harry Reid did it.
(Sshh... forget the inconvenient fact that he actually has been trying to push & help the public health authorities to prepare for pandemics...)
- Knee-Jerk Harry-Hating, Know-Nothing Hack
The hate in these posts are absolutely shameful. No one knows how swine flu got here. Does anybody know how the avian flu got around? Does anyone know how any kind of flu got started?!?!? NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!! It's a virus people and it happens. Every day. All day. 24/7. Instead of laying hateful blame, take care of yourself, stop thinking dank and evil thoughts and maybe think a little before you write and/or speak.
o.k. folks, I've had muscle aches, fever,runny nose, headache and cough for over 10 days now. I went to St. Rose hospital's emergency room. They ran tests. I had to request the swine flu test. Back in October I had regular flu shot. But I just feel sick, no energy. I suggest everyone get the test just for the comfort of knowing you are or are not infected with the virus. Seems like Nevada would be a sure location for infection. But the government simply does not want the true infected information released. Help yourselves, government won't help you.
For every action there is an overreaction. Close the border, the sky is falling!!! No, it is NOT a pandemic. Thousands die from flu every year, this is just the latest strain. R-E-L-A-X!!!!
Its getting to where its pandemic,and yet our borders are still open? We can stop it with drugs,or maybe only a few will die of it? CLOSE THE DAMN BORDERS NOW!
Okay, so we close the borders, then what? And exactly what borders are you speaking of rumrunner? What if someone from Europe had the virus, visited Mexico and then the U.S. What if someone from the US visited Europe, picked up the virus and brought it back here? Too many what ifs don't ya think?