Early NFL betting lines at Hilton set up action

By Jeff Haney (contact)

Friday, April 17, 2009 | 2 a.m.

associated press file

Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger throws a pass during the Steelers’ victory against Baltimore in the AFC championship game Jan. 18.

The Tennessee Titans will have the first crack at the defending Super Bowl champions, going up against the Pittsburgh Steelers as a 5-point underdog.

The New Orleans Saints, coming off a mediocre 8-8 season, are nonetheless the biggest betting favorite on the board, laying 11 points. It helps that their opponent is the Detroit Lions, fresh off an 0-16 season.

The two Monday night games on Sept. 14 feature a couple of solid favorites of at least a touchdown in the New England Patriots and San Diego Chargers.

Those are a few of the highlights of the listing of betting lines for the first week of the 2009 NFL regular season, which have been posted at the Las Vegas Hilton sports book.

Bettors can risk money now not only on point spreads for the first week’s slate of games, but also on money lines and “totals,” or over/unders, on each game.

In fact, last year some of the most significant moves in the Week 1 betting lines took place in the area of totals from the time the numbers were released in April through game day.

Half of the games on the board for Week 1 had notable line movement in their totals a year ago. In each of those eight games, the line movement came toward the “under,” meaning the total dropped. According to a popular betting theory, defenses generally have the edge on offenses early in the season in pro football.

The over/under in last year’s Patriots-Kansas City Chiefs game, for instance, dropped from an opener of 48 to 43 1/2 by game time in Las Vegas before New England won 17-10. The Chiefs were projected to field a bland offense that would have trouble putting many points on the board.

The total in last year’s Cincinnati-Baltimore game dropped from an early opener of 42 to as low as 37 in Las Vegas before the Ravens won 17-10.

As always, however, bettors still have to choose their spots carefully — even if they do subscribe to the strategy that entails favoring defenses early in the season. In last year’s Detroit-Atlanta game, for example, the total dropped from 45 to 41 but the Falcons won 34-21.

And in the eight games in which the line on the total moved significantly — dropping in every case — “overs” and “unders” each went 4-4.

Although predicting line moves between now and the opening week can potentially yield profits, it might be more important to use Week 1 results to determine which teams are worth playing on — or against — in the early part of the season.

According to Fezzik (one name only, please), who won the $1,500-entry “SuperContest” handicapping challenge at the Hilton last year, early in the football season bettors can take advantage of the oddsmakers’ propensity to adjust teams’ power ratings incrementally rather than making any wholesale changes.

“They say don’t over-adjust your ratings based on any one week of results,” Fezzik said. “I think that’s great advice later in the year, but I think it’s terrible advice early in the year.

“You have to be able to recognize that Cleveland stinks, Cincinnati stinks, Atlanta is pretty good, or whatever. You have to make these adjustments on teams that are not going to be playing to form at all compared to what their expectations are.”

NBA playoffs

The Lucky’s sports book group is offering a proposition on the NBA postseason asking if any player will score 48 or more points in any game of Round 1 of the playoffs. The “no” side opened at minus 150 (risk $1.50 to net $1) with “yes” at plus 130. The maximum wager on the prop is $500.

Also at Lucky’s, the Lakers are a minus 130 favorite against the Cavaliers (plus 110) in a potential NBA championship series. Of course, those two teams must play each other for action on this wager.