Economist: Despite tough times now, city’s future is bright

By Buck Wargo

Wednesday, April 1, 2009 | 2:22 p.m.

The Las Vegas economy still has some rough patches ahead, but a local economist said the region’s long-term prospects remain bright.

Jeremy Aguero, a principal at Applied Analysis, said everyone’s take on the economy depends on his or her perspective of whether they view what’s happening through a glass that’s half empty or half full.

Aguero spoke to more than 500 people today at the Renaissance Hotel during the unveiling of the annual Las Vegas Perspective research guide.

“You can take a look at it from a number of perspectives, but the good news is almost every analyst out there expects us to be in some type of recovery by the time we get to 2012,” Aguero said.

By historical standards, Las Vegas and the nation is more than half-way through the recession, and the region has overcome other downturns with a strong bounce back, he said.

“Taking a look at whether the glass is half full or half empty depends on your perspective,” Aguero said. “The economy has weathered storms before, and I certainly believe it will weather this one.”

Las Vegas has been hurt by the downturn in tourism and job losses in the hospitality and construction industry. There are also concerns about the growing weakness in commercial real estate in addition to housing, he said.

But the good news is even though population in Clark County fell in the past year, people are still moving here and despite the financial woes of gaming companies, it is a debt problem that can be overcome, even if they file bankruptcy, because of their cash flows, he said.