Political scholar predicts Obama victory

Brookings Institute senior fellow says political conditions, economy ripe for Democratic presidential win

Aaron Mayes / UNLV Photo Services

Noted congressional scholar Tom Mann speaks today, Sept. 18, 2008, during the UNLV Greenspun College of Urban Affairs Executive Breakfast at Greenspun Hall in Las Vegas. Mann is a faculty member at the Brookings Institution and recently co-authored “The Broken Branch: How Congress Is Failing America and How to Get It Back on Track.”

By Jenna Kohler (contact)

Thursday, Sept. 18, 2008 | 12:47 p.m.

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Tom Mann is in the business of predicting elections, especially presidential elections.

“But I get them as wrong as anybody else,” admitted Mann following his speech at UNLV's Greenspun College of Urban Affairs Thursday.

Mann was commissioned by Brian Greenspun, president and editor of the Las Vegas Sun, and the College of Urban Affairs Interim Dean, Dr. Lee Bernick to speak at the first official event at the Greenspun building.

A senior fellow at the Brookings Institute, Mann is a political scholar and expert in campaigns, elections and the U.S. government, specifically the congressional branch. In 2006, Mann co-authored “The Broken Branch: How Congress Is Failing America and How to Get It Back on Track” with Norman Ornstein.

College of Urban Affairs staff members, City Councilman Ricki Barlow, state Sen. Bob Coffin, University Regent Jack Schofield and representatives from both U.S. Sen. Harry Reid and U.S. Rep. Jon Porter were present to hear Mann speak about the upcoming election.

“Well it’s such a boring year, I don’t know where to begin,” Mann said, joking in his opening, “Nothing is happening in the world and the country, everything is cruising along and all we have to talk about is lipstick on a pig.”

The crowd laughed, but Mann went on to prove that the humor in that statement could exist only during a time when nothing could be further from the truth.

“It’s important to laugh, you’ve got to laugh in this political year,” said Mann.

He described an environment rife with voter frustration: a discredited president, serious economic strain and instability, a war that has declined in violence but still is wholly unpopular among Americans, a majority of people who believe the country is not on the right track and an unprecedented negative outlook.

Mann described these conditions as “structural advantages” to the Democratic Party that, when combined with the shift from a 50-50 divide in voters towards greater Democratic Party identification, created a perfect storm for a Democratic victory in November.

“And, Barack Obama is a compelling and inspiring candidate, demonstrated clearly in his ability to come out of nowhere and ultimately defeat perhaps the strongest candidate Democrats could have imagined like Hillary Clinton,” said Mann.

But Mann wasn’t convinced that these conditions alone were sufficient enough to clench a victory in November.

“It takes a campaign to seize the opportunity created by these conditions,” said Mann.

Although Mann doesn’t believe in getting tied up in the poll numbers and the “melodrama” of both conventions Mann voiced two areas of concern regarding a Democratic victory in November:

According to Mann, John McCain’s reputation as a maverick – despite his endorsement of President Bush in 2004 – and even his unpopularity among his own party makes a plausible case that McCain offers different Republican leadership than Bush.

“It was serendipitous, but it produced the one candidate who had any possible chance of being competitive in this electoral environment, for the Republican Party,” said Mann.

“The second other really goes to the personal profile of Barack Obama . . . you have to acknowledge he’s relatively new to the national scene, to national politics and policy making; relatively little experience in politics,” said Mann.

But he pointed out that Sarah Palin’s nomination to the vice presidential seat may have inhibited the Republican’s ability to make this argument.

“In my view, it’s the most irresponsible action by a major party presidential nominee in my lifetime,” said Mann, “If your argument is that the role of commander in chief is critical, that Obama doesn’t have the knowledge or experience or judgment to carry out that responsibility . . . but now to make the case that she’s (Palin) ready destroys that credibility and weakens the case.”

Ultimately though, Mann called upon history to substantiate his prediction of an Obama victory on Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2008.

“If you look back at history and ask yourself the question, ‘What experience do we have when we have a party, a president in office for two terms leaving office, bad economy, difficult war and discredited president has that party been able to hold on to the White House?’” Mann asked. “Bottom line is, you have to go to 1876 to find an example in which a McCain-like candidacy won.”

Discussion: 12 comments so far…

By jfnance32

9/18/08 at 4:16 p.m.

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Brookings Institue is a pro-Democrat liberal think-tank.

I doubt if they have ever predicted a Republican win.

But I would have agree with them six months ago that it would be an easy Democratic win.

But now Democrats picked a 3 year part-time US Senator and a 7 year state senator as their main guy.

Thank you Democrats for making it a close race!
By gqbossing

9/18/08 at 5:30 p.m.

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God help us if the far most west thinking political (Reid, Pelosi, Biden, Obama and friends) people get into office. I mean it will be good for the housekeepers, fast food workers, cooks and every other low skilled worker who will automatically benefit from Socialism.

It will discourage people from trying to strive to be better because their tax rates will eliminate their wealth, and the people who are satisfied with minimum wages won't be encouraged to improve themselves, the ones working the hardest will pay for their health care, retirement, and many of the things they do.

The United States is a free enterprise Democracy, institutionalizing our country isn't the way to go. Having the government controlling our lives isn't the way to go. If you want more bailouts and the government telling you what doctors you can see and how to live your life then vote Obama, if not there's no way you can vote for him. I have voted mostly Democrat in my life but I cannot vote for this group of people who are as much left as a Rush Limbaugh is right. McCain and Palin are middle of the road people and unfortunately the best choice.

What I don't get is how the democrats could have screwed this up so much; which angers me the most. I was fine with Obama, but he's attached himself with Pelosi, Reid, chosen Biden to be his running mate, and I cannot accept that. I was still leaning towards him barely with the Biden pick, but I am sorry, there is no way I can go for him now. McCain has taken his old self and injected someone who is a lot like Obama in his campaign and that shows a lot better judgment than Obama is showing; daily"
By Kaz

9/19/08 at 7:23 a.m.

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Obama will *LOWER* your federal income tax - not increase it. That is unless you earn more than $250,000 a year. Obama will increase the tax of one earning $2M (2 million dollars) a year by $701,855 (11.5% increase). He will decrease the tax of one earning $20,000 a year by $892 (3.6% cut). Yes, he is increasing the tax on the rich by 11.5% and decreasing the tax on the low income by 3.6%.

McCain's tax cut for one earning over $2M (2 million dollars) in one year is $269,364 (4%). His cut for one earning $20,000 in a year is a measly $113.00 (.5%). Yes, he is giving the rich a bigger tax break than the low income - 8 times bigger!!!!.

FACT: If you earn less than $250,000 a year, Obama will ***LOWER*** your federal income tax - not increase it.

FACT: Your Obama tax cut will be larger than your McCain tax cut.

FACT: McCain gives a multi-millionaire a tax cut that is ***8 times bigger*** than a low income earners tax cut.

See for yourself. Here is proof!!!!!!

Here is a link to a ***tax calculator*** you can use to see how much of a tax break you will get with Obama's plan. (I haven't been able to find one yet for the McCain plan. Why is that????.)
http://alchemytoday.com/obamataxcut/

Here is a link to a very clear tax cut comparison chart. This chart is referenced in many newspapers and magazine articles.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con...

Here is the link to get the full 56-page comparison of the two tax plans published by the independent Tax Policy Center.
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/publicati...
By jfnance32

9/19/08 at 8:02 a.m.

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Obama will raise taxes on job creation capital investments. That will hurt jobs in Las Vegas.

Oooopppsss.....Obama agrees with the above statement and is reconsidering his tax increases.

Obama wants to tax energy which would hit every single person in the USA.

Gaff machine Biden says it is our patriotic duty to pay higher taxes.

According to many tax studies, Obama will give taxpayers who actually pay income taxes $1.95 a day more in tax cuts over McCain's plan.

Whoooooooohoooooooo......I will be able to buy my cheesburgers!!!!!!!!!
By KDR81

9/19/08 at 12:55 p.m.

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Yes Brookings is a left of center think tank but they put out quality research (if not occasionally flawed).

I won't stand bye and let anyone badmouth their organization just because they're left of center.

You have to attack the merits of their arguments not the people making them.

It is equally stupid (and intellectually cowardly) to attack Cato, Heritage or even Nevada's own NPRI just because they are right of center.
By sunreader

9/19/08 at 3:25 p.m.

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The most liberal engagement in the west is blogging at the Las Vegas Sun, baby!

Welcome to the liberal engagement GOD and jfnance!

Hopefully we can count on YOUR vote for President Hussein on Nov 4 - YEAH!!!

Have you hugged a tree lately? Oh wait, we're in the desert...have you hugged a Las Vegas bearpoppy today?
By jfnance32

9/19/08 at 7:53 p.m.

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The liberal leftwing Manning an expert on calling Presidential Elections??????

In 2000, he said Gore would win.

In 2004, he said Kerry would win.

I can not find any of his other predictions.
By PatriciaLV

9/19/08 at 8:29 p.m.

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I agree with you, KDR81, but I would hardly put NPRI in the same category as Brookings or Cato or even Heritage.

Jim, do you EVER have anything meaningful to write?

Actually, gqbossing, I believe the United States is a Republic. I don't remember ever seeing the words "free enterprise" in the Declaration of Independence, the United States Constitution or the Bill of Rights.

And yes, I have read all of those documents; several times.

Oh and no one's buying that you were EVER "leaning" towards Obama, so you can pretty much stop that particular trollish nonsense.
By NevadaFive

9/19/08 at 9:47 p.m.

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Monarchy! Monarchy! The USA needs to do away with this silliness of "electing" a president every four/eight years. The congress can do it - like parliment in England. Now, who can be king or queen? The Kennedy's had some hold on this for quite a bit - but with Ted so ill... Caroline! She can be queen! Or, Mitt Romney - plenty of sons - in the english tradition. Figureheads we can admire; love and/or hate. Jefferson envisioned that the USA would have a "constitutional convention" every 20 or so years - I think it's time to revisit this theme.
By michelle63

9/21/08 at 9:10 a.m.

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My name is Michelle, a White, Female, Proud American Democrat.

Mann is correct, our Country needs change and Barack Obama will become our next President.

Obama/Biden 08

BARACK OBAMA FOR PRESIDENT!
By truthfromreason

9/22/08 at 10:23 a.m.

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Nance, as usual you are outnumbered. How do you find the time to work your opinion into the comments for each and every article that the Sun posts? Keep fighting for the right, it is a dying ideology. Voters are smart enough to see the mess the right has made of our country, and hopefully, enough of them will show up to the polls on Nov 4th.