Monday, Oct. 6, 2008 | 2 a.m.
Throughout the saga of disgraced NBA referee Tim Donaghy, Las Vegas sports betting analyst R.J. Bell has done a thorough job of examining the scandal from a point-spread perspective.
An investigation ordered by NBA Commissioner David Stern and released Thursday found no evidence Donaghy made any calls to influence the outcome of games. It also found no evidence of any illegal activity by refs other than Donaghy.
Donaghy is serving a 15-month sentence after pleading guilty to conspiracy to engage in wire fraud and transmitting betting information through interstate commerce.
The conclusions of the probe ordered by Stern run counter to “some extremely damning statistics” derived from studying point-spread moves, Bell claimed in his latest report on the controversy.
The first 15 games of the 2006-07 NBA season officiated by Donaghy that had point-spread moves of at least 1 1/2 points were undefeated in favor of the line move, meaning bettors on the side of the line move cashed all 15 times. The odds of that occurring randomly are greater than 32,000-1, Bell pointed out.
“To conclude Donaghy did not fix the games, you have to believe that a person troubled enough to provide inside information to criminals was able to referee games in which he had a financial interest without any bias,” according to Bell, proprietor of the locally based betting Web site Pregame.com.
Bell’s research also showed that 10 games officiated by referee Scott Foster during the period in question had moves in the betting line of 2 points or more. Again, in those 10 games, bettors on the side of the line move cashed every time.
Between the two of them, Donaghy and Foster were involved in games with significant point-spread moves 13 percent of the time, according to Bell.
When Bell took a random sample of the first 100 NBA games in December 2007, he found only 6 percent of the games had a line move of 2 points or more.
Although Bell’s figures provide no definitive proof of misbehavior, they certainly offer a fresh and thought-provoking perspective on the whole odious episode.
Tarver-Dawson
Oddsmakers at the Palms sports book have installed former WBC light heavyweight champion Chad Dawson as a solid betting favorite against Antonio Tarver in Saturday’s 175-pound world title fight.
Dawson (26-0, 17 knockouts) was established as a minus 240 (risk $2.40 to net $1) favorite in the scheduled 12-rounder with Tarver’s IBF light heavyweight belt at stake.
Tarver (27-4, 19 KOs) is a plus 190 (risk $1 to net $1.90) underdog in the bout to take place at the Pearl at the Palms.
The round proposition has been set at over/under 11 1/2, with the price minus 240 the fight will go at least 11 1/2 rounds and plus 190 it will not. As always, odds are subject to change.
Showtime (Cox cable channel 240) will air Tarver-Dawson after showing the Vitali Klitschko-Samuel Peter WBC heavyweight championship fight on a tape-delayed basis from Berlin, Germany.
Klitschko (35-2, 24 KOs) was installed as a minus 125 favorite with Peter (30-1, 23 KOs) a plus 105 underdog according to Palms odds. The round prop was set at 9 1/2; will go minus 150, won’t go plus 130.
3-card poker action
The Hacienda near Boulder City is offering an opportunity for gamblers trying to play their way into the 2008 3-card poker world championship tournament scheduled for Dec. 14-16 at Mandalay Bay.
The Hacienda will conduct a qualifying tournament Oct. 24-26 with the top prize of a seat in the Mandalay Bay tournament valued at $4,000.
Players can buy into the qualifying tournament, which includes a two-night stay at the Hacienda, for $199. They can also win their way in by hitting a royal flush or a straight flush while playing 3-card poker at the Hacienda.
Tournament strategy in any gambling game can vary, sometimes significantly, from traditional cash-game play. In standard 3-card poker optimal strategy for cash-game play dictates raising if you have a hand of queen/6/4 or better, according to wizardofodds.com. That won’t negate the house’s edge but it will give the player his or her best shot at making a score, assuming all other factors are equal.
The world championship tournament at Mandalay Bay carries a prize pool of $1.2 million.
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