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Home sales, prices fall in October
Mon, Nov 10, 2008 (11:52 a.m.)
Sun archives
Beyond the Sun
The number of home sales listed by Realtors dipped slightly in October as median prices fell to $190,000, the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported.
October’s 2,718 sales were 55 fewer than September and marked only the second time this year that sales fell from a prior month. Despite the drop, it’s the second highest number of sales in any month this year. There were only 974 sales in October 2007.
So far, the existing-home market doesn’t appear to have taken a hit from the financial meltdown on Wall Street in September and subsequent drop in the stock market.
The median price of homes sold in October was down $5,000 or a drop of 2.6 percent from September. Prices are down 31 percent from October 2007, the Realtors’ group reported.
Bank-owned properties continue to have a large effect on the housing market, President Patty Kelley said. These foreclosures have added to the inventory and driven down home prices.
Two of every three homes sold in Southern Nevada are owned by lenders, Kelley said.
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Even with these #s, I still think we are close to bottom on market. I think we also need to tell people that there are many mortgage refinancing assistance program, and others are helping as well. For example, the federal government and other companies are trying to help over one million people refinance, keep their homes, etc.
http://www.needhelppayingbills.com
The bottom is about $30,000 to $40,000 lower. Don't buy yet, hold, hold, hold. Federal programs won't stop the falling price only delay when we reach the bottom.
Pre bailout it looked like we would reach the bottom around January or February (bottom would be a median home price of around $150,000...posibly less) based on the trendline of home prices in the area.
Who knows how long the bailout will delay Las Vegas home prices from reaching that bottom.
Btw, I am not associated with any lending, mortgage, bank, development firm or reality office.
According to a news article the other day, credit is abundant again and very cheap.
I hope that would increase demand and at least stablize prices.
OK this is my view on property taxes. If our houses are going down in value wouldn't you imagine our property taxes would follow the same path? Is this not fair to property owners? When property value went up, taxes went up. Common sense. Am I alone in feeling this way? Been here for 33 yrs. residing in Clark County. Good luck to all of us.
Property taxes are going to have a hard time going the other way because the city and county need to pay for infrastructure somehow. With statewide tax revenue way down, and Vegas tax revenue way down, you (the homeowner) are going to have to make up for that even if your home is worth 70% of what it was 3 or 4 years ago.
Nance... I would like to know what article you read that stated that. I have been keeping a close eye (at least I thought I was!) on news lately and hadn't seen anything that talked about liquidity reaching the consumer yet. And even when it does, the rules and their effects are different on speculative markets than they are on real markets. I personally think Vegas will be stuck in a vicious cycle for another few years or so, but that's just me. There's no real reason for people to move to Vegas right now, and until you have owner/occupants, it remains a speculators market, and the prices will reflect that.
Too many homes on the market, not enough people to buy them. Going to be a while yet I'm afraid. Having said that, I hope I'm wrong. I'm still a big fan of the place!
I do not know this another wishful thinking article, but here it is:
http://www.lvrj.com/real_estate/34137934...
I can see why the average Las Vegan is optimistic, based on what the "experts" are saying. The problem is that most of the experts were completely caught off guard by the severity and scope of the decline, and they are still holding the mentality of 'it just HAS to go back up'. Most often in our history, that which has gone down, has gone back up again. But not always.
And you really have to pay attention to what they're really saying. In that article, Mr. Smith says three things that I think are really telling.
First, he states that he doesn't expect anyone to get a better deal on a house in 2009 than they could get today. But he then says that he doesn't anticipate homes to begin appreciating until 2010 or 2011. So, he's probably guessing like everyone else.
Secondly, he says that "There has to be credit available to qualified borrowers." That's true, but the bigger need is for there to be credit again to the 'secondary' borrowers. The ones with a credit score lower than 725. That's where the market will be. There aren't enough qualified borrowers to buy enough houses to turn the market around.
Thirdly, he offers up this little morsel; "Job growth is flat now, but there's light at the end of the tunnel," he said. "We still have projects being built in our No. 1 industry."
If he's truly pinning the market turning around in Vegas because of new properties going up, boy is he going to look foolish. People came in '89 to see the Mirage, and people came throughout the '90's to see the next themed joint open up. But people don't come here anymore just because a new place opens up. They can't afford to. Vegas has totally alienated their bread-and-butter crowd... the middle class who takes two trips a year. They've price themselves out of most peoples market. The ramifications of that are going to be the largest factor in how long it takes Vegas to turn around, and I still have not heard one "expert" address that. They're still in denial of the root cause of numbers being so far down.
I agree that Vegas will turn the corner eventually, and I hope it's sooner than later. But all things considered... it could be longer than most people are hoping for.