Jeff Haney discovers the ‘Big Three’ prop, an attractive bet for gamblers who think one of the favored teams in the NFL or college football will win the title

Associated Press File

New England’s Tom Brady, Indianapolis’ Peyton Manning and Dallas’ Tony Romo quarterback teams in the “Big Three” prop.

By Jeff Haney (contact)

Friday, May 30, 2008 | 2 a.m.

Football bettors who expect this year’s NFL and college seasons to play out fairly true to form, with few surprises and a favored team taking the title, should consider an innovative proposition available at MGM Mirage sports books.

The “Big Three” prop allows gamblers to wager on the Patriots, Colts or Cowboys as a single betting entry to win the Super Bowl against the “field,” or all other teams. The prop groups Georgia, USC and Ohio State against all other teams to win college football’s championship.

The betting lines on both props are highly competitive, offering bettors a fair shake.

In the NFL, the Patriots, Colts and Cowboys are plus-175 (risk $1 to net $1.75), which equates to about a 36 percent chance one of those teams will win the Super Bowl.

By comparison, a bettor wagering on each team individually could find the Patriots at 4-1, the Cowboys at 6-1 and the Colts at 7-1 — odds that equate to about a 46 percent chance of one of them winning the Super Bowl, or only plus-116. (As an aside, the Big Three prop gives no respect to the Chargers, also a 6-1 shot around town.)

In college football, Georgia, USC and Ohio State are plus-230, which equates to about a 30 percent chance one of the three will win the title.

Betting Georgia (9-1), USC (3-1) and Ohio State (10-1) individually would equate to only about a 44 percent chance of one of the three winning, or plus-127. This makes the plus-230 at MGM Mirage the better way to play it.

(As always, odds are subject to change.)

The Big Three is a two-way proposition, meaning bettors can play either side of it. In the NFL, the field is minus-215 (risk $2.15 to win $1) against the three top teams, and in college the field is minus-280.

Belmont

He’s literally back on track, galloping at Belmont Park after sustaining a small crack in the hoof wall, and Big Brown figures to go off as a heavy betting favorite in his Triple Crown bid in the 140th Belmont Stakes on June 7.

Bettors must risk $2.50 to win $1 on Big Brown to win the Belmont, according to odds at Wynn Las Vegas. It’s plus-210 that he will not win the Belmont, according to Wynn odds.

The prop opened at minus-300/plus-250, indicating some early sentiment against Big Brown.

Before the Kentucky Derby, the Las Vegas odds on any horse winning the Triple Crown this year were in the range of plus-650 to plus-700.

Fight Game

Bettors are backing welterweight champion Miguel Cotto in his title fight against Antonio Margarito in the hottest fight of the summer, a pay-per-view bout scheduled for July 26 at the MGM Grand.

After opening closer to 3-2, Cotto has been bet up to as high as a minus-260 favorite, although the Plaza still has him at minus-220 with Margarito, coming off a knockout of Kermit Cintron in Atlantic City, at plus-190.

The Plaza has also posted odds on a Sept. 20 rematch of last year’s biggest fight, with Floyd Mayweather a minus-250 favorite against Oscar De La Hoya, listed at plus-210. Mayweather won a 12-round split decision in their first meeting as a favorite of about 2-1.

WNBA

Many Las Vegas sports books post point spreads and over/unders, or “totals,” on games in the Women’s National Basketball Association, which is a month into its five-month season.

Some bettors might maintain that the WNBA totals are on the betting board practically for show only. Betting limits — the maximum wager accepted — on WNBA over/unders are in the range of $200 to $300 per game across Las Vegas, even at joints that routinely take bets well into the four figures on other sports.

One key reason is that WNBA wagering is what economists might call an “illiquid market,” because it attracts little money and even less decent two-way action — if economists paid any attention to betting on women’s basketball games, that is.