Wednesday, Jan. 9, 2008 | 2 a.m.
With eight NFL teams trying to complete a three-leg parlay that would culminate with a Super Bowl victory Feb. 3 in Glendale, Ariz., the New England Patriots remain the bettors’ choice in Las Vegas sports books.
Odds on New England to win the Super Bowl range from as low as 1-8 (risk $8 to win $1) at the Palms or Station Casinos to a more attractive minus-160 (risk $1.60 to win $1) at the Plaza.
Two of the better sports books to track the Patriots’ fortunes are the Wynn and the Cal Neva joints, because each offers a yes/no proposition on whether New England will win the championship game.
At Cal Neva, the “yes” side of the proposition, the Patriots will win the Super Bowl, is listed at minus-170, with the “no” at plus-150. Cal Neva, based in Reno, has several Southern Nevada outlets, including Binion’s and the Four Queens downtown.
At the Wynn, it’s minus-175 on the “yes” and plus-155 on the “no.” (As always, betting lines fluctuate and are subject to change by the minute.)
Yes/no props often present fair odds to gamblers. Their double-sided structure prevents the price from drifting too far in one direction and sucking any value out of the play for bettors.
For instance, a typical price in Las Vegas on the Patriots to win it is about 1-3 although those casinos don’t offer a “no” option to make up for the mediocre odds.
New England’s status as a heavy favorite makes sense considering the special Super Bowl point spreads available for wagering now at MGM Mirage properties.
The Patriots are listed as a 17 1/2-point favorite in a Super Bowl matchup against the Seattle Seahawks, according to the MGM Mirage odds. The Patriots would be favored by 17 against the New York Giants, by 14 1/2 against the Green Bay Packers and by 12 against the Dallas Cowboys.
A more generic Super Bowl point spread, simply pitting the AFC against the NFC, is available at several properties in town. The Las Vegas Hilton, for example, has the AFC as an 11-point favorite against the NFC with an over/under of 55 points. The money line is minus-450 on the AFC and plus-375 on the NFC.
The Plaza is also worth checking out because it also lists the AFC minus-11 but with its signature minus-105 vigorish on NFL games. That means bettors have to risk only $1.05 for each $1 they’re trying to win, rather than the standard $1.10 to win $1.
Among the myriad individual-player betting lines expected to be linked to this weekend’s four playoff games are props at the Venetian asking which player will score the first touchdown.
The Venetian lists 17 or 18 players for each of the four games, plus a “field” (all others) and a “no touchdown” option.
In the San Diego Chargers-Indianapolis Colts game, for instance, LaDainian Tomlinson is favored at 4-1, with Joseph Addai at 5-1.
In the Giants-Cowboys game, Marion Barber is 7-2, the field is 5-1 and Brandon Jacobs and Terrell Owens are each 6-1.
In the Patriots-Jacksonville Jaguars game, Randy Moss is 7-2, the field is 5-1 and Laurence Maroney, Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew are each 6-1.
In the Seahawks-Packers game, Ryan Grant and the field are 5-1 co-favorites.
Bettors looking to back a team other than New England to win the Super Bowl might consider playing their selection on the money line each week, rolling over the profits into the following game each time.
Otherwise, look for 11-2 on the Colts at Cal Neva (beware of the 2-1 at Boyd/Coast joints); 7-1 on the Cowboys at the Hilton, Palms or Plaza (3-1 at Stations); 10-1 on the Packers at the Palms (4-1 at Stations); and 18-1 on the Chargers at the Plaza (8-1 at Boyd/Coast).
Also, 18-1 on the Jaguars at the Plaza (beware of the 6-1 at Boyd/Coast); 40-1 on the Giants at Cal Neva, Hilton or Palms (18-1 at Boyd/Coast); and 40-1 on the Seahawks at Cal Neva or Hilton (12-1 at Boyd/Coast).
Early odds
The Patriots are also heavily favored to win next year’s Super Bowl, according to the Las Vegas Hilton and Venetian sports books, which have released odds on teams to win the big game Feb. 1, 2009, at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla.
New England opened at 5-2 on the early line at the Venetian, and at 9-5 at the Hilton.
After a significant drop-off in the betting line, other top choices were the Colts (6-1 at the Hilton, 7-1 at the Venetian); Cowboys (8-1 Venetian, 10-1 Hilton); Chargers (10-1 Hilton, 15-1 Venetian); and Packers (15-1 at both books).
The longest shots on the board are the Atlanta Falcons (300-1 Venetian, 200-1 Hilton) and the Miami Dolphins (300-1 Hilton, 200-1 Venetian).
Considering the two casinos’ aggressive approach in posting early Super Bowl odds, it’s not surprising each set of odds is quite favorable to bettors compared with competing sports books’.
An analysis of the two future books reveals a theoretical hold percentage, or “house edge,” of 17 percent at the Venetian and 26 percent at the Hilton.
Elsewhere in Las Vegas, the house edge on future books typically reaches as high as 50 percent meaning gamblers can expect to find better odds and get more bang for their buck betting at places such as the Venetian and the Hilton.
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