Friday, Feb. 1, 2008 | 2 a.m.
The relationship between the point spread in Sunday’s Super Bowl and its money line reveals perhaps the most attractive way to bet the big game — and a wager to avoid at all costs.
The Patriots are favored by 12 points against the Giants at Las Vegas sports books.
Yet the money line — for bets on which team will win the game outright, regardless of the point spread — on New England is as low as minus-420 (risk $4.20 to win $1) in Las Vegas, with prices from minus-430 to minus-450 readily available.
Money lines in that range represent a substantial discount from the odds usually attached to an NFL game with a point spread of 12 — and a good opportunity for bettors.
Establishing a money line is partly a function of the over/under, or expected number of points, in an NFL game, so there’s no hard and fast formula.
Typically, though, an NFL game with a point spread of 12 will carry a money line on the favorite of at least minus-700 at Las Vegas casinos.
In September’s game between the Chargers and the Chiefs, for example, San Diego was a 12-point favorite. Bettors had to lay between minus-725 and minus-800 on the Chargers on the money line, however.
Similarly, when the Patriots were favored by 12 against the Texans in December 2006, the money line was minus-700 on New England. The previous month, the Colts were favored by 12 against the Bills in a game that carried a money line of minus-800 on Indianapolis.
Sure, there is some “vigorish,” meaning the house’s cut of the action, built into those money lines. But the money line on the Patriots in Sunday’s Super Bowl still looks attractive compared with the “no-vig” line, or true odds, on an NFL team favored by 12, which comes out to about minus-650.
“Anything around 4-1 on the favorite is a great value,” Las Vegas sports handicapper Patrick Bartucci said, adding that he has personally played New England at minus-420 and might take a larger position if the money line drops further.
The reason Sunday’s money line is so out of whack has to do with the unique dynamics of Super Bowl betting.
More than any other football game, the Super Bowl attracts legions of casual fans looking to have fun and get in on the action, many probably making their only sports bet of the year.
In Las Vegas, those recreational bettors tend to play the underdog on the money line, hoping to triple their money but not realizing they should be demanding a return of at least five times their investment.
“All those small plays on the Giants really add up in the casinos,” Bartucci said.
Money lines of minus-420 or minus-430 were available midweek at many sports books, including Cal Neva joints, the Las Vegas Hilton, the Palms, Harrah’s properties, Station Casinos properties, the Plaza and the Stratosphere/Arizona Charlie’s books.
If New England on the money line is an advantageous bet for Super Bowl gamblers, the Giants on the money line is one to avoid — regardless of what all those casual bettors are playing.
The price on the Giants on the money line ranges from plus-325 (risk $1 to net $3.25) to plus-370 in Las Vegas. If you were betting a 12-point NFL underdog on the money line, however, you would normally expect odds of plus-550 to plus-650.
Betting the Giants on the money line in the Super Bowl would be like playing blackjack at one of those mutant tables that pays 6-5 on naturals rather than the traditional 3-2. Even if you win, you’re shortchanging yourself.
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