Sunday, Oct. 21, 2007 | 12:54 p.m.
WASHINGTON - Even as Democrats' efforts to change course on Iraq have stalled, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid told students during an intimate gathering last week the war is "winding down."
In an evening event with University of Louisville scholars, Reid was asked what the war would look like in 2009 if a Democratic were elected to the White House.
Reid told the students gathered at the Brown Hotel he thinks troops will be coming home soon. He pointed to recent comments by retired Army Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez, a former commander of coalition forces in Iraq, who called the war a nightmare without end.
"I honestly think Iraq is winding down," Reid told the students. "I think it's the beginning of bringing our troops home."
That might have come as a surprise to the Nevada Army National Guardsmen based in Henderson who found out last week they are heading to Iraq for a second tour of duty.
Does Reid's outlook mean Democrats have resigned their efforts to change course in the war, believing it is running its course and will continue to do so without congressional intervention?
The Senate has clearly shifted the daily debate away from the war , which monopolized much of its session, as Reid has realized he is unable to get enough Republicans on board to pass substantial legislation.
So it might appear the Democrats intend to simply hold back until a new president is in the White House.
Reid, in Washington later in the week, said absolutely not.
"We cannot back off," Reid told reporters when asked about his Kentucky comments. "We must be committed to changing the course in Iraq and bringing our troops home."
Reid promised to bring new legislation to the floor to change the direction of the war in Iraq as soon as he sees an opening.
But about the timing and substance of such a bill, he could not say.
"We don't have anything on the Senate floor to do that with right now ... As soon as we have a vehicle coming across the floor that we have an opportunity to that, it will be done."
Reid's message, as explained later, was an acknowledgment that the next president will have no choice but to listen to the majority of Americans who want the war to come to a end.
The last chance at a bipartisan consensus on how to change the mission in Iraq collapsed in late September, a victim of presidential politics.
Days of intense negotiations between Democratic Sen. Carl Levin of Michigan and Republican Sen. George Voinovich of Ohio broke down because the sides couldn't agree whether to set the deadline before or after the 2008 election.
The bill would have required President Bush to report to Congress on the new direction, and Democrats wanted that to happen before the election so they could hold Bush accountable before voters. Republicans wanted it after November 2008 so their candidates would not be dragged down by the unpopular president and unpopular war.
And so the war continues, even if the debate in Washington has quieted for now.
In many ways, Democrats may think they have made their point on the war, having successfully blamed Republicans for blocking efforts to stop it. They know they must turn to the domestic agenda lest they get branded the Congress that got little done.
Strategically, Democrats have also realized it may do them no good to futilely keep bringing up Iraq legislation because voters might see it as the Democrats' failure to end the war.
The next likely round of debate will be over Bush's request for nearly $200 billion in supplemental spending to see the war through next year.
The chairman of the House Appropriations Committee has vowed not to bring Bush's request up for a vote until he wins concessions from the president for a new strategy, pushing off a showdown until money begins to run out early next year.
Republicans could always try to bring the supplemental spending bill up for a vote sooner, forcing a confrontation with Democrats over support for the war funds. Or Democrats could try to tack an Iraq-related amendment onto the final version of the 2008 Defense appropriation bill before they submit it to the president.
Or Democrats can simply wait.
Army Gen. David Petraeus is expected to return to Congress with another update report in the spring, and a new president will be in office not too long after that.
"A lot of people think the wind is being taken out of the Iraq debate right now," said a spokesman for Voinovich, a moderate senator who has spoken out against the current Bush strategy and wishes negotiations would continue.
Republicans may think they have won this round of the war debate, but the senator's spokesman said his boss doesn't see it that way.
"I don't think anybody wins. Americans want something done."
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