Jon Ralston explains why Jon Porter is avoiding The (Bush) Picture like the plague

By Jon Ralston (contact)

Wednesday, Nov. 28, 2007 | 7:15 a.m.

What a long way Jon Porter has come from The Picture.

You remember The Picture - the one of Porter with President Bush, arm in arm, both of them beaming and waving. When it was taken 18 months ago, Porter and Bush were figuratively brothers in arms, fighting together for America and the GOP.

Later in 2006, The Picture was featured in many a Tessa Hafen spot to capitalize on the president's sagging popularity. Porter's 90 percent support (Hafen rounded up) of Bush backed up the Democratic contender's rhetoric, which almost cost the congressman his seat.

Now, on the eve of Porter's reelection bid, with the president's numbers even more toxic, the incumbent clearly wants to make sure The Picture won't happen again. In a startling exchange Tuesday on "Face to Face," Porter couldn't tap into The Picture's embrace when I asked him what he would do if Bush called him in the middle of his campaign to offer to come out to the Third District to help.

"I think it depends on the time of the year, when it is," he began tepidly, before briefly pausing to remind everyone, "The president is the president of the United States. I don't always agree with him, but I'm also in a campaign."

Stirring endorsement, that is, eh? It depends on the time of year?

Yes, wouldn't want the president to wilt in the summer heat, so that's out. And in the fall, well, you never know where I might be then, right in the heat of the campaign, so I probably wouldn't invite him.

Can you even visualize The Picture, Congressman? Do you remember that armlock, the smiles, the smiles you gave to one another, the smiles you have now left behind? Yes, what is too painful to remember, you hope the voters will forget.

What seemed clear from the interview is that Porter, if he had the chance, would not do it again. I asked him if he thought Bush might be a liability to his reelection, which might be the reason he wouldn't leap to have the great honor of the president campaigning for him. Sayeth the former Bushie:

"I tell you, it depends on the time, whether I'm even in town. But, I have a campaign to run. There are a lot of folks who do agree with the president. I don't agree with him all the time, but a lot of people do."

Yes, a lot of people do. Or used to. Or still do, but don't want to advertise it. Or have a picture of it.

In 2003, 2004 and 2005, Porter supported Bush 86.7 percent of the time, the Congressional Quarterly found. Porter has been a nearly unwavering backer of the president's strategy in Iraq while rarely disagreeing with him on any major issue. He was against the SCHIP expansion before he was for it, but the second vote was a rare divergence.

But at least Porter can add SCHIP to his usual "I'm not a rubber stamp" act because Yucca Mountain has been a lame and lonely staple of that rhetorical emptiness. But Porter's fuzzy memory of the way he and the president were back in April 2006 at (where else?) The Venetian is hardly surprising.

Porter doesn't live in a vacuum. He has watched the parade of retirements by Republican incumbents as pundits forecast the coming GOP apocalypse in Campaign '08. And he is in a district where Democrats now have a slight registration advantage and where he barely held on to his seat (by 4,000 votes) in 2006.

That's why he will be even more targeted than he has been in the past - and Porter is used to being targeted by the national Democrats and now by Nevada's Democrat Numero Uno Harry Reid, who might just believe Porter will be running for a higher office come 2010 should he survive 2008.

And so Porter - or his campaign advisers - has rewritten every line of his previous Bush fealty, which seemed so simple that day at Gondolier Numero Uno's place, when raising money trumped any Bush albatross. Perhaps not so this time.

You see, Mr. President, it depends on what time of year it is, the congressman might not be in town, he'll have to get back to you.

And there definitely won't be any photo ops, so prosecutor Robert Daskas, the Democrats' great hope next year, won't have a picture of Porter and Bush to bludgeon the congressman with this time. Unless, of course, he exhumes the one Hafen used.