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Hillary Clinton’s people must have been thrilled to see that Nevada poll released here the day of the debate showing her way ahead of Barack Obama…

By Jon Ralston (contact)

Tuesday, Nov. 20, 2007 | 7:37 a.m.

By Jon Ralston Las Vegas Sun

Hillary Clinton's people must have been thrilled to see that Nevada poll released here the day of the debate showing her way ahead of Barack Obama. But just a few days later, Team Clinton had to be shaken by Iowa poll numbers that showed Obama moving toward the outer edge of the margin of error ahead of her. But here's the dirty little secret about these early-state polls that the campaigns crowing about them don't want you to know: They mean very little. That's true in Iowa, where surprises happen every cycle, but especially here, where no one (that includes Harry Reid) knows who will show up. This is one of the few times the annoying cliche that politicians use actually means something: The only poll that matters is the one on Election Day.

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