Jeff Haney examines patterns of surprise in the evolving betting lines of UFC showdowns

Monday, May 28, 2007 | 6:09 a.m.

For sports gamblers, a distinct pattern has emerged in the main events of recent Ultimate Fighting Championship shows.

It happened again Saturday night at the MGM Grand Garden Arena. The betting underdog brought home the money.

Quinton Jackson's upset victory was the latest in a series of UFC results that can be categorized as surprises, according to the betting line.

At UFC 69 on April 7 in Houston, Matt Serra scored a technical knockout against Georges St. Pierre for the welterweight title as a betting underdog of plus-600 (risk $1 to net $6) or higher.

At UFC 70 on April 21 in Manchester, England, bettors who backed Gabriel Gonzaga also earned a return of at least 6-1 on their money when Gonzaga stopped Mirko Cro Cop, until then considered virtually invincible in the octagon, in the first round.

Those two stunners followed a minor upset at UFC 68 on March in Columbus Ohio, when Randy Couture pounded out a unanimous decision against Tim Sylvia as an underdog of better than 2-1.

The price on Jackson in his victory night ranged from an opener of plus-240 to about plus-140, depending on when you wagered in the sports book.

Jackson was one of four betting underdogs who won Saturday in the five fights that carried betting lines at MGM Mirage properties, a group led by UFC rookie Houston Alexander, who beat Keith Jardine as a 'dog of plus-350 to plus-400. Only welterweight contender Karo Parisyan delivered as a favorite (minus-260) against Josh Burkman.

"It's a hard sport to bet," said Steve Cofield, UFC expert and host of the daily "Wise Guys" radio show on Fox Sports (KENO 1460-AM, noon to 2 p.m.). "I wouldn't want to be a tout trying to make a living selling picks on the UFC.

"I guess if I had to, I would just take the value side every time."

The seemingly random results and apparent unpredictability in big UFC matchups are to be expected as the sport gains a foothold in the public's consciousness, according to Cofield.

As mixed martial arts fans and sports bettors become more familiar with the ins and outs - not to mention the neck cranks and rear naked chokes - of the UFC and its personalities, expect more fights to play out closer to form vis a vis the betting lines.

"Right now the lines are just reflecting the opinions of the American betting public," Cofield said. "As people continue to learn the sport, the lines will get hammered into shape."

The opening line on Jackson-Liddell wasn't a big shocker, and its subsequent movement wasn't particularly mysterious.

Harder to figure, according to Cofield, were the runaway, lopsided lines in the Serra-St. Pierre and Gonzaga-Cro Cop fights.

"The line should never be that one-sided in a championship fight," Cofield said. "I knew the Serra line was out of control.

"I remember being at Mandalay Bay that morning and seeing it was minus-800 (on the favorite). I was thinking, minus-800? Huh? This guy (Serra) is a good fighter."

Although he was not addressing the betting angle specifically, UFC President Dana White said he suspected St. Pierre was heading for a fall because of what White called a lack of mental preparation.

"The kid (St. Pierre) was so nervous to fight Serra, it blew my mind," White said of a visit to St. Pierre's locker room before the fight. "After watching the Matt Serra fight, I question Georges St. Pierre's mental ability to fight.

"I think that Georges St. Pierre needs to work on his mental game, because his physical game is second to none."