Jack Sheehan on the folly of asserting absolute certainty in an uncertain world

By Jack Sheehan (contact)

Sunday, May 13, 2007 | 7:04 a.m.

Certainty belongs to youth.

My 8-year-old daughter has a habit of answering questions with the most assertive answer she can think of.

"I'm positive, Dad," she'll say. "It's a 100-percent sure thing."

My 11-year-old son told me that Brady Quinn was a sure thing to be the first selection in the NFL draft a few weeks back. (His entire bedroom is covered in Notre Dame memorabilia.) Brady went 22nd, and wasn't even the first pick of the Cleveland Browns, the team that eventually selected him.

I, on the other hand, am less certain about anything than I was as a younger man.

The big difference in perspective between my kids and their 50-something old man is that they think, as they should, that they will live forever, and I'm reminded on a monthly basis that we're all just a trickle of blood or an insidious growing cell inside our bodies away from the exit door.

I've been fooled by so many sure things in my lifetime that as the years float by the only thing of which I'm certain is that I have no absolute certainty about anything.

When I attended college on a golf scholarship and had a fair amount of success my sophomore year, I thought it was a sure thing that I would make my living playing professional golf. One year later two guys were recruited to our team who could beat me on a regular basis, and the only semi-sure thing was that I could land a job selling baskets of beat-up golf balls on a hard-dirt driving range. Forget my becoming Tom Watson, against whom I competed for four years in college. Think Tin Cup.

I was also told by several of my buddies in high school that a girl I invited to the senior prom was a sure thing. Once again, if you'd bet the under on that one you would have cashed.

So the strongest language I'm willing to go with these days is the term Highly Likely. That way when a dead-certain expectation falls flat, I don't end up with a Spanish omelet on my face.

Regarding our own wonderful city, here are some things that this oft-humbled and wizened observer would consider to be Highly Likely.

#1 It's Highly Likely that if we don't spend a ton of money to improve our road system and come up with better access as we perform our daily congress, an ever-increasing number of people are going to die from negligent drivers and road rage.

# 2 It's Highly Likely that UNLV made a great move last week in contractually keeping Lon Kruger as its head basketball coach through 2012. As has been shown through the years, our university's hoops program is integral to community pride, and now that the school has found a first-class guy who gets the most out of his players, both on and off the court, it could not afford to let him leave.

#3 It's Highly Likely that Sheriff Doug Gillespie needs to expend as much energy and manpower as he possibly can to bust methamphetamine labs in the valley. One of the main reasons Las Vegas recently earned embarrassing headlines as the nation's leader in auto theft is because of the proliferation of crackheads here. We know this first-hand. Our car was stolen from our home by meth freaks. (When the wrecked car was found, the Brooks and Dunn CD in the sound system had been replaced by Marilyn Manson. Talk about adding insult to injury.)

#4 It's Highly Likely that we'll have a major professional sports franchise relocate to Las Vegas within five years, maybe even three. And it's Highly Likely that crowd support after the first losing season will cause the team owner to have second thoughts about the decision to move here.

#5 It's Highly Likely that if the rules allowed, Oscar Goodman could remain mayor of Las Vegas until he is 90. Despite constant bashing from local media, having the gall (some might say foresight) to suggest that Las Vegas should legalize prostitution, and popping two or three outrageous verbal outbursts a year - all of which would get most big city mayors ushered out of town on the next Greyhound - Goodman remains the most popular mayor in the country.

#6 It's Highly Likely that the quality of advertising put forth by a barrage of local personal injury attorneys is targeted at citizens with IQs under 50. Either all of these ambulance chasers were born rich, or are involved in something that smells like week-old flounder. How else could they afford the air time they manage to dominate on local TV channels? Somebody please - before I check myself into a padded room - explain this to me. (If anybody knows, it's George Knapp.)

#7 It's Highly Likely that we'll never have a bullet train from here to L.A. in my children's lifetime. I remember lively discussions about a Super Train that could travel at over 300 miles an hour and would make non stop trips to Los Angeles in just over an hour. Several politicians, including then-mayor Bill Briare, were saying the train idea was the most important single step in the future of Las Vegas. The date of these discussions was 1978. Somehow, we've managed to do pretty well without the train.

#8 It's Highly Likely that regardless of what the average temperature is over the next three months, at least three of your neighbors will tell you with absolute conviction that this is the hottest summer they can remember in Las Vegas.

Come to think of it, of that last point I am certain.