Friday, Oct. 27, 2006 | 7:39 a.m.
Early Las Vegas betting lines on the Super Bowl have the AFC team listed as a small favorite of about 2 1/2 points against the NFC representative.
Local sports handicapper Patrick Bartucci expects the New England Patriots, rather than the undefeated Indianapolis Colts, to snag the AFC's berth in the 41st Super Bowl, which will be played Feb. 4 in Miami.
"New England is the one team in the AFC not being talked about," Bartucci said. "Their schedule is cake. I can see them churning out 12 or 13 (regular-season) wins and ending up with the (No.) 1 or 2 seed (in the playoffs)."
Bartucci also likes the Patriots this week and advises laying a short number with New England against the Vikings on Monday night.
Bettors have been backing Minnesota as an underdog, driving the point spread down from an opener of 3 points to as low as 1 1/2.
"New England still has (coach Bill) Belichick and (quarterback Tom) Brady," Bartucci (online at patricksfreepress.com) said. "It's hard to bet against them."
In his other best bets on the NFL card, Bartucci recommends backing the Saints as a small favorite against the Ravens, and the Colts as a small underdog against the Broncos.
Money has been coming in on Denver, which is favored by 2 1/2 to 3 points in Las Vegas sports books, but Bartucci thinks the move could be an overreaction to several injuries on the Colts' defense.
Bartucci agrees with the flow of money supporting the Saints, favored by 2 1/2.
"The game opened at pick 'em, and it's going to go to 3," he said. "You have to like the Saints coming off a bye at home - all of a sudden, the Superdome is a fun, magical place to play again."
Rookie running back Reggie Bush has "opened up" the Saints offense, Bartucci said, allowing teammates such as quarterback Drew Brees and running back Deuce McAllister to excel.
"The Ravens are terrible on the road," Bartucci said. "And they just fired their offensive coordinator (Jim Fassel). This is a team with a lot of internal strife."
Bartucci likes the Bears as a 15 1/2-point home favorite against the 49ers - but he's not convinced Chicago will advance to the Super Bowl.
"The Giants have more talent than anyone in the conference," he said. "Tiki Barber (announcing his plans to retire) may serve as the motivating factor the team needs to get them there."
Odds downgrade
The Stratosphere/Arizona Charlie's properties earned a mention in this space earlier this month for offering good odds on certain parts of their football parlay cards.
They were good, all right - too good to last.
The sports books at the Stratosphere and Arizona Charlie's, which are linked, have since lowered their payouts for going 3-for-3 and 10-for-10 on a standard half-point (meaning no ties possible) parlay card.
Previously those books paid 6 1/2-1 (or "7 1/2 for 1," in the strained language of casino marketing departments) for going 3-for-3, which were the best odds in Las Vegas. They have been adjusted to a pedestrian 5 1/2-1, a payout rate that can be found almost everywhere in town.
The old odds of 924-1 for going 10-for-10 were also the best in town. They have been lowered to 849-1, which is OK but nothing special, as the same payout can be found at several other Las Vegas properties.
Contest updates
In the final first-round matchup of the Leroy's Money Talks invitational football handicapping contest, Alf Musketa of Vegasinsider.com faces Paul Sonner, a Reno sports bar and restaurant owner, tonight at the Silverton (7 p.m., KSHP 1400-AM).
The outcome of tonight's match will pare the 16-man field to eight in the single-elimination, bracket-style contest in which the entrants select seven football games against the point spread. Each contestant put up $5,000 to compete and the Leroy's sports book chain juiced the pot with another $20,000 for a prize pool of $100,000.
Other first-round winners were Doc Moseman, Bill "Krackman" Krackomberger, Marc Lawrence, Bryan Leonard, "Sooner Adam," Andy Iskoe and Erin Rynning. The championship matchup is scheduled for Dec. 15 at the Silverton.
In the season-long head-to-head handicapping contest sponsored by Leroy's known as "Beat Bogdanovich," professional gambler Fezzik brings a record of 25-11-6 (69.4 percent) against the spread into today's round against fellow pro Nick Bogdanovich (24-16-2, 60 percent). Each man put up $25,000, and it's winner-take-all.
The show begins at 2 p.m. at Fitzgeralds downtown (KENO 1460-AM on radio).
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