Las Vegas Sun

April 26, 2024

Jeff Haney on who to bet and who to avoid at the betting window

Top-ranked Ohio State has received plenty of recognition for not only winning outright but also covering the point spread in each of its games this season.

Two other college football teams have also come out 5-for-5 against the spread with substantially less fanfare.

Syracuse of the Big East and Central Michigan of the Mid-American Conference are 5-0 against the number. Both have managed to stay out of the spotlight compared with the Buckeyes, mostly by losing games straight-up but keeping the score close enough to reward bettors who back them as an underdog. Central Michigan is 2-3 straight-up, Syracuse 3-2 overall.

On the other side of the ledger, Stanford has consistently cost its supporters money this season, going 0-5 against the spread. The Cardinal is also 0-5 straight-up, having lost three times to Pac-10 opponents as a double-digit underdogs. Stanford was also spanked by Navy as a short underdog and lost as a favorite at San Jose State.

Examining against-the-spread marks about a month into the college football season can help determine which teams are exceeding the preseason expectations of bettors and oddsmakers, and which are falling short.

A handful of other teams remain unbeaten against the spread, including Louisville and East Carolina (both 4-0), and Air Force, Hawaii and San Jose State (all 3-0).

Among those who have yet to cover the spread are Arkansas, Fresno State, Iowa and San Diego State (0-4), and Marshall, Maryland, Miami and North Carolina (0-3).

Some bettors like to look ahead to potential matchups between teams who are overachieving against the spread (ATS) and teams that are falling short of the oddsmakers' expectations, figuring there could be some built-in value in backing the former - especially if they've been covering in "stealth" fashion, losing straight-up as an underdog.

While none are on tap this week, one possible "showdown" looms Oct. 14 when Hawaii visits Fresno State.

Coming off a disappointing performance against Colorado State in which it lost outright as a two-touchdown favorite, Fresno has been installed as a 28-point favorite Saturday at Utah State. Hawaii puts its unblemished ATS mark on the line as an 8-point favorite against UNR on Saturday.

Another could take place Oct. 21 when San Diego State hosts Air Force in the Mountain West. The Aztecs have one game before that date, as a 26-point underdog to BYU on Saturday, while the Falcons have two, including Saturday's game against Navy in which they are a 3-point favorite.

Baseball discount

Baseball bettors wagering on postseason action, which begins Tuesday with three division playoff games, should make the Stratosphere sports book their first stop in looking for the best line.

The Stratosphere and its related properties will offer a five-cent money line, or "nickel line," on individual games throughout the playoffs, sports book director Robert Jaynes said.

With a nickel line, if the favored team is listed at minus-120 (risk $1.20 to win $1), for example, the underdog would be plus-115 (win $1.15 for each $1 risked).

A nickel line is about as good as it gets for a value-seeking sports bettor, especially considering 15-cent and 20-cent lines - less advantageous for gamblers and more profitable for the casinos - are common in Las Vegas. A bettor is much more likely to find a good price at a book with a nickel line.

The Stratosphere will also offer favorable 10-cent lines on "totals," or over/under wagers, and run-line wagers (when 1 1/2 runs are added to or subtracted from a team's actual final score for betting purposes) during the playoffs, Jaynes said.

During the regular season, Jaynes used an eight-cent money line, a 15-cent run line and a 15-cent line on totals. The Stratosphere was named as one of the best places in town to bet baseball in this column in April.

The properties linked to the Stratosphere sports book are the two Arizona Charlie's casinos in Las Vegas and the Aquarius (formerly the Flamingo) in Laughlin.

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