Turnout turnaround unlikely

Wednesday, May 17, 2006 | 7:33 a.m.

CARSON CITY - Although millions of dollars will be spent by candidates in Nevada's primary in August, it's doubtful that the money - or an earlier election date - will do anything to turn around slumping voter interest in the state.

A competitive race for governor, however, might do so, some believe.

In the past 10 years, 30 percent or less of Nevada's registered voters have cast ballots in primaries. Voter apathy reached its peak in 2000, when only 23 percent of those registered showed up.

Political scientist Eric Herzik does not expect to see that trend "significantly reversed" this year, despite spirited races in both the Republican and Democratic primaries for governor.

"Too many candidates sending out too many messages confuses rather than clarifies the election," said Herzik, a political science professor at UNR.

But Secretary of State Dean Heller, in charge of elections - and who will be on the ballot himself - predicts an upturn in voter turnout in the primary.

"People are concerned about three races - mayor, governor and president," said Heller, a candidate for the GOP congressional nomination in District 2.

"In the past there has been too many anointments," Heller said, referring to candidates chosen by top political leaders or special interests to lead the ticket.

In this election, however, there are strong candidates for governor in both parties, he said.

"The quality of candidates is high and it is competitive," Heller said.

The race for governor features five Republicans and three Democrats, and the contest for lieutenant governor has drawn six Republicans and four Democrats.

The Nevada Legislature, motivated by county clerks' desire for greater separation between primary and general elections, moved the primary election from the first week in September to Aug. 15.

"I don't see that helping" the election turnout, Herzik said. "People are on vacation. It's the middle of summer and people are thinking about going back to school or shopping."

Heller agrees that advancing the date of the primary election is more of a "deterrent than a help" in getting voters to the polls. Over the past three decades, little has helped.

From 1972 to 1994, turnout peaked at 61 percent in 1982 but generally was in the 40 percent range, according to records in the secretary of state's office. In 1996, turnout fell to 30 percent, and it has been in the 20 percent range since then.

Herzik says the "best hope" for drawing voters is the race for governor. In the Democratic primary, Sen. Dina Titus of Las Vegas and Henderson Mayor James Gibson are the major candidates.

"This could possibly bring people out," Herzik said. "But if the campaign gets real negative, that tends to depress voter turnout."

The front-runners in the Republican primary election for governor are Rep. Jim Gibbons, Lt. Gov. Lorraine Hunt and state Sen. Bob Beers.

In general elections, Nevada's voter turnout during presidential years has been in the 70 percent range. But in nonpresidential years, it fell to 49 percent in 1998 and to 59 percent in 2002.