Gibbons ‘wins’ with absence

By J. Patrick Coolican (contact)

Saturday, May 13, 2006 | 7:07 a.m.

While four of Nevada's gubernatorial candidates gathered for a low-wattage forum this week, cracking wise and chatting cordially in front of a glittery gold curtain at the Stardust, the front-runner wasn't there. And, to a great extent, that means he was the winner.

Rep. Jim Gibbons, R-Nev., has a huge lead in polls in the race for the Republican nomination against Lt. Gov. Lorraine Hunt and state Sen. Bob Beers of Las Vegas. He's sitting on a lot of money for the fall general election campaign against either of the leading Democrats, state Sen. Dina Titus of Las Vegas or Henderson Mayor Jim Gibson.

Analysts say Gibbons is well positioned for a classic front-runner's campaign - he can avoid mistakes, ignore the other candidates, raise money from D.C. lobbyists, and do it all while saying he's staying in Washington to serve his constituents.

Best of all, Gibbons has a perfectly reasonable explanation for missing events such as the candidate forum Thursday - Congress was in session. And Congress will be in session until the August recess, which is after early voting begins in Nevada.

Gibbons has agreed to two debates during the recess, but that could be after many voters have made up their minds. Some may have already cast a ballot during the early-voting period, which begins July 29.

It's the political equivalent of the four-corner offense in basketball - the team spreads out to avoid defenders and run down the clock to protect a lead.

"He's given the prerogative of controlling his own message," said Nevada Republican political consultant Steve Wark, who is not advising any of the gubernatorial candidates. "For anybody 20 or 15 points ahead, if you go to an unscripted event and you don't shoot yourself in the foot, it's successful."

For Gibbons, message control is especially important, as his discipline has sometimes been found wanting. As Roll Call, the Capitol Hill daily, reported earlier this year: "Gibbons, the front-runner for this GOP-held open seat, has had a quiet couple of months - a good thing for him, since most of the headlines he made in 2005 hurt his campaign."

Last year, for instance, Gibbons suggested that liberals should be sent to Iraq to be used as human shields, cribbing it from a speech by Alabama State Auditor Beth Chapman.

Although spending time outside of Nevada might open him up to charges that he's ducking opponents, he can rightfully claim that he's got other obligations.

"He can say, 'I've got a pressing issue back in D.C.,' " UNLV political scientist David Damore said. "It's a perfect cover."

Pointedly, none of the other candidates noted Gibbons' absence.

Currently, 10 of the nation's 50 governors served in Congress before becoming governor.

Running for governor as a Republican congressman this year offers both risks and an upside, analysts said.

"A candidate not highly conscious of the fact that being a Republican and a congressman is a liability is in trouble," Jennifer Duffy of the Cook Political Report said. Polls show the public has taken a dim view of the Republican Congress, and Democrats hold a big head-to-head lead when voters are asked who should control Congress.

Duffy added that after talking to Gibbons' people, she thinks they understand the risk of being associated with Republican Washington.

"When your first name is 'Congressman' and the thing at the end of your name is 'R,' it's not good," said Chuck Todd, editor of the nonpartisan political newsletter The Hotline.

But congressmen leaving and running for governor are able to wash their hands of the current Congress, Duffy and Todd said.

"He can turn around and say, 'I'm not part of that crowd anymore,' " Todd said.

"Voters will think he's trying to get out of there," Duffy said.

The Gibbons campaign says it is avoiding nothing in the race.

"From the campaign's perspective, we'd like to have more of his time, but with his congressional duties taking four or five days of every week, sometimes Saturdays, it's very hard," Robert Uithoven, Gibbons' spokesman, said. "He's definitely not laying low. He's participated in more than a dozen candidate forums, numerous Rotary appearances, chamber of commerce events."

Gibbons' opponents, Uithoven said, "are the same people who'd like to see him not carry out his congressional duties so they could attack him on that. His first obligation is to fulfill the duties he's elected to do, and he's made that clear."

For their part, the other candidates continue apace. At the forum Thursday, a roar of laughter rolled around the room in response to several Titus quips, such as when she called for a ban on gifts to lawmakers, to include "golf games and whatever they do in those gentlemen's clubs." She refused to rule out new taxes or higher taxes.

After Gibson gave a long and involved answer to a question about affordable housing, he was asked whether he would consider new taxes. "No," he deadpanned, before poking fun at himself a bit. "I've read the newspapers after I speak, so I'll just say no," he said wryly.

In response to several questions, Hunt read prepared answers, while the other candidates spoke extemporaneously.

Beers railed against the expansion of state and local government in Nevada. After the event, he said he believes Gibbons' support is "soft," meaning that voters were not solidly in the Gibbons column and could be persuaded to switch their vote.