Jon Ralston provides his predictions on who will win Tuesday’s primary elections and live to see November
Sunday, Aug. 13, 2006 | 7:34 a.m.
Never before in all the years I have donned my oracle's garb have I encountered such bizarre and close races.
Primaries are notoriously unpredictable, too. And all of this is occurring during the first July-August voting in state annals, so foretelling campaign fates is even more difficult.
With those ready-made excuses out of the way, I forge ahead once more, ready to crow or eat some in the post-Tuesday world:
Perkins opted not to run - I wonder if he regrets it - and Gibson seemed ill-suited to the campaign hurly-burly against a woman who portrayed him as corrupt and, even worse, a conservative Republican. Quite simply, the mayor never effectively answered any of her charges.
Titus, 51 percent; Gibson, 39 percent; the rest and none of the above, 10 percent.
But, in the end, money will win out in this race and Gibbons' last-minute TV campaign and his strength in the north will overcome Beers and Lt. Gov. Lorraine Hunt, Gov. Kenny Guinn's close, close adviser on everything except the gross receipts tax.
Gibbons, 46 percent; Beers, 34 percent; Hunt, 12 percent; the rest and none of the above, 8 percent.
The state - and the country - might be better served if she enlisted with the Minutemen. Treasurer Brian Krolicki almost waited too long to respond to her attempt to buy the race, but he will pull it out.
Krolicki, 43 percent; Woollen, 31 percent; Lonnie Hammargren, 15 percent; Janet Moncrief, 3 percent; the rest and none of the above, 8 percent.
Heller, 38 percent; Angle, 33 percent; Gibbons, 24 percent; the rest, 5 percent.
Despite the eleventh-hour assault on him, the man whose name is first on the ballot will get into the general election. So will the undersheriff, as the hard-working Laurie Bisch and the qualified but underfunded Bill Conger will come up short.
Airola, 30 percent; Doug Gillespie, 25 percent; Bisch, 12 percent; Conger, 11 percent; the rest, 22 percent.
Giunchigliani, 48 percent; Williams, 47 percent; Priscilla Flores, 5 percent.
Danny Tarkanian will edge Brian Scroggins for the GOP nod in the secretary of state's race. And District Attorney David Roger will survive Frank Cremen.
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