Jon Ralston shows that the compelling pitch made by Nevada Democrats to bring an early presidential caucus to our state might not be all hype

Friday, April 28, 2006 | 7:34 a.m.

On the face of it, the notion is laughable: Nevada as a critical player in presidential politics.

Most candidates - or presidents - stop in Nevada barely long enough to drink a cup of coffee and collect a vat of money, as President Bush did this week. It's a pleasant enough stopover on the way to or from electoral vote-rich California, but hardly worth a second thought.

But one week ago in New Orleans, Nevada Democrats made a serious and, from all reports, a well-received pitch to have an early presidential caucus here in 2008, which would be a transformative event for the state. What happens in New Hampshire would suddenly happen in Nevada - they would really care about us and cater to us. They might even have to take substantive steps to win our love.

And they would do it not just in presidential years but continually. Do you think John McCain and Hillary Rodham Clinton visit Iowa and New Hampshire because they love those states?

I know what you are thinking: This is all just hype. I must be dreaming. Or I just want all the candidates here so I can importune them to appear on "Face to Face."

Not so (except for that last one, perhaps). Nevada has a real chance to land the early caucus between New Hampshire and Iowa for three reasons: the New Orleans pitch, the state's dynamics and Harry Reid.

The presentation was dazzling, from what members of the Democratic National Committee's Rules and Bylaws Committee have told people here and in Washington. It was enhanced by a glossy booklet produced by R&R Partners for the state Democratic Party that highlighted why the state would be a perfect choice.

"Many of my friends on the committee said they made the best case ... I wouldn't say Nevada is an underdog at all since they have emerged as the leader among the Western states applying for an early caucus," one D.C. operative who has worked here informed me.

The state's advantages laid out in the pitch book are compelling, described in this overview sentence against a bucolic backdrop scene:

"The fact is Nevada is a geographically, economically, culturally and ethnically diverse state that will serve the nation and the Democratic Party well as the location of the new early caucus."

The pitch then goes to point out Nevada's unprecedented growth, which, it argues, "not only reflects the Southwest but provides a snapshot of the country as a whole."

And with that growth has come diversity, and the booklet devotes pages to numbers reflecting the growth, especially in the Hispanic population to almost a fifth of all Nevadans.

Sure, some of it is hyperbolic. State Sen. Steven Horsford, the national committeeman, is quoted as saying Nevada has an "organized African-American community," an oxymoron that will not go away. Assembly Majority Leader Barbara Buckley, presumably with a straight face, said Nevadans measure candidates "by the content of their character and the merits of their performance." Empirical data was not available.

The high percentage of key Democratic constituencies such as labor, whose operatives were in New Orleans, and veterans also are touted. The ability to combine retail politics with cheap ad buys has to be appealing to the committee, the booklet argues. And the fact should not be lost on these folks that if Al Gore had won Nevada in 2000 - and he came relatively close - the course of history could have been changed.

The selection ipso facto is political as can be and that's where Reid comes in. This is where his back-room, arm-twisting skills should be exploited to their fullest. If the most powerful Democrat in the country can't sway these folks, who can?

The real problems, sources say, are the enduring stigma of gaming and the sinful picture most have of the state. One committee member was heard to be telling her colleagues that prostitution is legal throughout Nevada.

(The pitch book is a neon-free zone - not one picture of a casino. The attempt to render the state's prominent industry invisible is comical, especially since if it didn't exist, neither would that diverse ethnic population.)

Nevada also has to contend with the preferences of the presidential contenders, so persuading Hillary Clinton or John Kerry or Bill Richardson also is critical. The real wild card is the 800-pound gorilla of Michigan, a critical Midwest state that has waded into the scene.

But if the committee decides that it needs to win the West, and Reid can close one of the most important political deals of his career, what once seemed laughable could become reality when the committee decides this year.