Wednesday, March 2, 2005 | 9:23 a.m.
Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at (702) 259-4041 or [email protected].
If it's the first week of March, it must be time for college basketball bettors to begin plotting their strategy for the NCAA tournament.
Las Vegas handicapper Ted Sevransky has isolated several teams he's planning to back at the betting windows, along with others he considers poor investments.
These selections are not necessarily "sleepers," but teams likely to be undervalued or overvalued vis-a-vis the point spread come tournament time.
His top play-on team, even though it's a probable No. 2 or No. 3 seed, is Oklahoma State.
"They're loaded in the frontcourt, and they have (John) Lucas in the backcourt," Sevransky said of the Cowboys. "This is a team that executes on both sides of the ball. It shoots 50 percent offensively, and defensively they get out on the perimeter and they have muscle inside.
"I consider them a legitimate contender to win it all."
Sevransky, online at whocovers.com, is also bullish on Villanova from the Big East. He thinks the Wildcats could make a serious move in the tournament.
"(Head coach) Jay Wright has been building toward this year basically since he got there" four years ago, Sevransky said. "They're peaking at the right time. The win against Kansas (Jan. 22) was a turnaround game for their season. The athleticism is there; the inside-outside game is there; the mindset is there."
Sevransky also likes what he sees from UCLA, including the Bruins' impressive 16-7 record against the spread.
"They've been winning games and covering spreads all season," Sevransky said. "They're a young team, and I don't expect them to go far (in the tournament), but I think they will offer value as a 'dog until they are eliminated."
Finally, despite reservations about head coach Billy Donovan, Sevransky will be taking a long look at the Florida Gators.
"I have no respect for Donovan as a tournament coach," Sevransky said. "But they keep finding ways to win. They've won some tough games on the road; for example, when they beat South Carolina (Sunday).
"I like (forward) David Lee in the paint; they have all those freshmen coming off the bench, and they have a steady hand with (point guard Anthony) Roberson."
The two most prominent teams in Sevransky's danger zone, on the other hand, are Wisconsin and Alabama.
"For Wisconsin it all comes down to the point guard position," he said. "That situation has not been good for the Badgers ever since Boo (Wade) went down."
Wade, projected as the Badgers' starting point guard, left the team unexpectedly for personal reasons.
Oddsmakers will likely overvalue the Crimson Tide as well, Sevransky said.
"They're great when they're allowed to run and gun," Sevransky said, "but in a halfcourt game, you saw what happened against Kentucky (in a loss Saturday). They just could not execute when Kentucky forced them into a halfcourt game."
The entire field of Conference USA entrants could be solid play-against teams in the tournament, Sevransky said. Although he has ranked Louisville high for most of the season, Sevransky is bearish on C-USA's other tournament contenders -- Charlotte, DePaul and Cincinnati.
Finally, due largely to concerns about the team's defense, Sevransky predicted Wake Forest will be the first No. 1 seed to fall in the tourney.
In the Mountain West Conference tournament, meanwhile, professional sports bettor Fezzik (one name only, please) believes UNLV could be overvalued in the betting line, presenting a play-against opportunity.
Fezzik thinks the Rebels' recent five-game winning streak -- while a fine accomplishment -- might have done just enough to inflate the point spreads on their conference tournament games in Denver.
As a Las Vegas basketball aficionado, Fezzik said he wishes the best for UNLV. But as a gambler, he compared the Rebels' situation to a Texas hold 'em hand.
"Like going all in with pocket deuces against the other guy's pocket aces, and an ace falls on the flop, but the last two cards are deuce, deuce," Fezzik said. The unlikely win can give the guy with deuces false confidence, Fezzik suggested.
"He thinks, now I know what I've been doing wrong all that time," Fezzik said.
In that analogy, of course, it's the Rebels holding the deuces.
'Challenge' results
Golden Nugget sports book manager Nick Bogdanovich won the inaugural Leroy's Handicapping Challenge college basketball contest, defeating professional gambler Alan Boston in the final round this past weekend.
Bogadanovich went 3-2 against the spread in his five picks to win $5,000 cash and $5,000 for charity; Boston went 2-3.
Jimmy Vaccaro of Leroy's said the contest generated a great deal of interest, but that he's hoping for a much better performance from the handicappers in next year's event. This year the field of contestants went a combined 34-45-1 against the spread, and just 2-14 on best bets.
(Full disclosure: Competing for charity only, I contributed 10 picks, which went a disappointing 4-6 against the spread.)
"Maybe the numbers (point spreads) were pretty tight," Vaccaro said. "I think the books are doing better than normal in basketball" this season.
Bogdanovich said the Golden Nugget is holding its own against basketball bettors.
"It's been a little choppy," he said. "We (the house) got off to a bad start but it's been getting a little better lately."
Root responds
Of the responses to last week's "Odds 'N' Ends" column, in which the aforementioned Mr. Boston criticized various aspects of Las Vegas, none was more impassioned than TV sports prognosticator Wayne Allyn Root's.
Root, whose sports betting advisory show originates from Las Vegas and airs on Spike TV (Cox cable channel 29), issued a public invitation for Boston to spend a day with him and his family, during which Root would showcase the area's attractions.
"I disagree strongly with (Boston's) comments, took great offense as he disparaged my adopted hometown that I now love with all my heart, and I think he simply has the wrong impression -- and obviously has been spending his time around the wrong people," Root, a Henderson resident, wrote.
"(Las Vegas) could be the most amazing city ever created ... a jewel in the desert founded and nourished by world-class gamblers and visionaries like Steve Wynn, Sheldon Adelson, Mike Ensign and Kirk Kerkorian. ...
"(We have) sunshine 320 days a year, perfect weather, the best restaurants, the most beautiful women in the world, the most magnificent resorts, legal sports gambling and (low) taxes. This is heaven."
Reduced juice
The sports books at the Plaza and Vegas Club downtown will offer a vigorish of minus 105 (bettors lay $1.05 for each $1 they're trying to win) rather than the standard minus 110 on college basketball games during the NCAA tournament -- a promotion well worth seeking out for college hoops gamblers.
The opening round of the tournament is scheduled for Tuesday, March 15, with the Final Four set to begin April 2 in St. Louis.
Free contest
Leroy's sports books have just launched a free basketball contest with an aggregate $5,000 weekly prize.
Anyone can enter the contest, which covers Sunday pro basketball games. Entrants pick the winner of each game straight-up, with no point spreads involved. It will continue through the regular NBA season.
There are about 60 Leroy's locations throughout the state.
Draft odds
Here are the odds on which round of the 2005 NFL Draft Maurice Clarett will be drafted in, posted by betWWTS.com after Clarett's subpar performance at the scouting combine: 1st round, 100-1; 2nd round, 30-1; 3rd round, 20-1; 4th round, 10-1; 5th round, 5-1; 6th round, 3-1; 7th round, 3-2; not drafted, 3-2.
This type of wagering is not permitted in Nevada as it's technically not based on the outcome of a sporting event.
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