Wednesday, Jan. 26, 2005 | 10:01 a.m.
Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at (702) 259-4041 or [email protected].
Today is the heart of prime time for bettors who like to get the first crack at freshly posted Super Bowl propositions in Las Vegas sports books.
Local oddsmakers began posting propositions Tuesday for the championship game between the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles set for Feb. 6 in Jacksonville, Fla.
More propositions -- or "props" for short, meaning unusual or offbeat wagering opportunities -- were expected to hit betting boards today and Thursday.
It's difficult to dissect the entire slate of props in short order -- the Las Vegas Hilton alone was planning to release more than 250 individual props, sports book director Jay Kornegay said. But bettors can get a jump on the process by anticipating some probable props, and even make their own line first to compare with the oddsmaker's when it comes out.
Here's a look at a few Super Bowl props we're likely to see (if they are not on the board already) along with some factors to keep in mind when analyzing them ...
Uniform number of the first player to score a touchdown, odd vs. even: Discounting Terrell Owens (No. 81), who probably won't be at full strength even if he does play, and Chad Lewis (No. 89), who's out, the teams' combined "even-number" touchdowns outnumbered "odd" touchdowns by about a 2-1 margin this season.
If "even" is a legitimate 2-1 favorite, then a gambler has a nice edge against the house at odds of minus 150 or better, if he or she can find such a price.
Will Philadelphia ever have the lead: The "Yes" was minus 190 Tuesday at Arizona Charlie's, though you could make a case for the "No" (plus 165). The Eagles were never underdogs of more than 4 points this season (the Super Bowl line is 7) -- but in the nine games in which the Patriots were favored by between 6 and 13 points, the opposing team held a lead in only three of them.
First missed field goal, wide left or wide right: Of the seven combined missed field goals this season by David Akers and Adam Vinatieri, three were wide left, three were wide right and one was short. In the unlikely event you find wide left or wide right as an underdog, it could be worth a play.
Touchdown passes by Tom Brady: He averages 1.72 per game overall, and about the same -- 1.67 -- in games in which the over/under is 44 or higher. (The over/under in the Super Bowl is 47 points, indicating a relatively high-scoring affair is expected.) If you think 1.7 is the "correct" number, then the plus 170 on under 1.5 TD passes at the Hilton could be an attractive price.
Will the largest lead of the game, by either team, be more than 13.5 points: The Hilton has the "over" at minus 160, the "under" at plus 130. You have the key number of 14 working for you if you play the "over," which seems to make a big difference here. In the Patriots' games this season, the "over" in this prop is 14-4; for the Eagles, the "over" is 13-5. Given the combined 27-9 for the "over," you could make an argument the minus 160 is a good deal.
Will the game go into overtime: A "bridge jumper's special" that offers solid value nonetheless. Depending on the point spread, most sharp oddsmakers and bettors figure it's worthwhile to bet that the game will not go into overtime at odds of up to minus 1500 (that is, wager $1,500 to win $100) or even higher.
In the 2003 Super Bowl between Oakland and Tampa Bay, for instance, in which the spread was 4 points (and so more likely to go into overtime than this year's game, lined at 7), professional bettor Fezzik was recommending a play on "no overtime" at odds of up to minus 1250.
That makes the minus 750 on "no overtime" in Super Bowl XXXIX that was available Tuesday at the Hilton look like a bargain.
SB XL
The Las Vegas Hilton has released its betting lines to win Super Bowl XL, scheduled for Feb. 5, 2006, at Ford Field in Detroit -- and the casino's oddsmakers were quite aggressive in constructing the future book.
Among the favorites to win next season's Super Bowl are the New England Patriots at 4-1, the Indianapolis Colts and Philadelphia Eagles, each 5-1, and the Pittsburgh Steelers at 7-1. Every other team is 20-1 or higher.
The longest shots on the board are the Cleveland Browns and San Francisco 49ers, each 200-1.
The theoretical hold percentage, or "house edge," on the entire set of odds works out to 28 percent, a highly competitive figure. (In house edge, the lower the number, the better it is for the gambler.)
At 25-1, the New York Jets appear to be worth a look at the Hilton.
The Jets went 10-6 this past regular season before defeating the San Diego Chargers and nearly upending the Pittsburgh Steelers in their two playoff games. Including the postseason, the Jets were 10-7-1 against the point spread. At other books that have released early Super Bowl futures, odds on the Jets range from about 18-1 to 22-1.
Fans back Favre
In a poll conducted by a Wisconsin newspaper, 77 percent of those responding said Green Bay Packers quarterback Brett Favre should return to play at least one more season rather than retire from football.
According to odds set by offshore book BetWWTS.com, Favre is indeed a fairly heavy favorite to stick around. The betting line is plus 350 that Favre will retire before the start of the 2005 season, while it's minus 500 that he'll return.
In another prop offered by the Antigua-based book, it's plus 325 that Tennessee Titans quarterback Steve McNair will retire before the start of the 2005 season, and minus 450 that he'll return. McNair recently underwent surgery to repair his sternum. McNair said late last year he was considering retirement due in part to a history of injuries.
New England PATRIOTS -7 -270
Philadelphia EAGLES 47 +220
1ST HALF WAGERING
PATRIOTS -4 EAGLES 23.5
2ND HALF WAGERING
PATRIOTS -3 -120 EAGLES 23.5
1ST QUARTER ONLY PATRIOTS -.5 -135 EAGLES 7.5 Over -150
2ND QUARTER ONLY
PATRIOTS -3 EV EAGLES 14 Over -120
3RD QUARTER ONLY
PATRIOTS -.5 +110 EAGLES 7.5 Over -140
4TH QUARTER ONLY (Excludes Overtime)
PATRIOTS -.5 +110 EAGLES 13 Over -120
SPECIAL POINT SPREADS
PATRIOTS + 3.5 -380; EAGLES -3.5 +310
PATRIOTS + 6.5 -550; EAGLES -6.5 + 400
PATRIOTS + 9.5 -750; EAGLES -9.5 + 550
PATRIOTS -3.5 -160; EAGLES +3.5 + 140
PATRIOTS -10.5 + 155; EAGLES + 10.5-175
PATRIOTS -14.5 + 240; EAGLES + 14.5-300
PATRIOTS -17.5 + 300; EAGLES+ 17.5 -360
PATRIOTS -21.5 + 475; EAGLES+ 21.5 -650
SPECIAL TOTALS
PATRIOTS/EAGLES OVER 37.5 -320
PATRIOTS/EAGLES UNDER 37.5 + 260
PATRIOTS/EAGLES OVER 42.5 -180
PATRIOTS/EAGLES UNDER 42.5 +160
PATRIOTS/EAGLES OVER 54.5 +230
PATRIOTS/EAGLES UNDER 54.5 -285
PATRIOTS/EAGLES OVER 59.5 + 350
PATRIOTS/EAGLES UNDER 59.5 -450
Propositions
OVER 13.5 -160; UNDER 13.5 +130
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