Friday, Jan. 7, 2005 | 5:35 a.m.
Jon Ralston hosts the news discussion program Face to Face on Las Vegas ONE and publishes the Ralston Report. He can be reached at (702) 870-7997 or at [email protected].
WEEKEND EDITION
January 8 - 9, 2005
With the new year already a week old, I probably should have excused myself from the prediction racket this year. But the imperative is too great, the prospect of crowing same time next year too delicious.
I won't lard this list with too many no-brainers -- no new taxes, Station Casinos will get whatever it wants (or a reasonable facsimile thereof) and the regents will break the open meeting law. Nor will I include all the cliche caveats about the difficulty of telling political fortunes. That would be an insult to my Delphic powers.
These are all (well, most) not so crystal-clear in the ball:
Anointment will out: In the run-up to the main event of '06, it will become clear by year's end that Rep. Jim Gibbons, anointed by the GOP powers that be, and Speaker Richard Perkins, anointed by the Carson City lobbying elite, will be the gubernatorial nominees.
Henderson Mayor Jim Gibson, who may well be the strongest challenger for the Democrats against Gibbons, will not run (although his monorail will be running a year hence). Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman will continue to float his name as a possible candidate, but no one will believe he would leave Las Vegas for Carson City.
State Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus, after seeing the Democratic powers that be won't back her, will ensure that she gets anointed for another statewide office -- perhaps secretary of state but possibly lieutenant governor, so she can finally be Senate Majority Leader Bill Raggio's boss. And Lt. Gov. Lorraine Hunt, seeing Gibbons has all the financial backing, will accept a cushy appointment.
Finally, a congressional race: The contest to succeed Gibbons will begin to shape up as a three-way race between his wife, Dawn Gibbons, and two members of the "we're term-limited but we don't want to get a real job" caucus -- Secretary of State Dean Heller and Treasurer Brian Krolicki. News that ex-Attorney General Frankie Sue Del Papa may get in will surprise people. (One note here: Is it just me or does it strike anyone else as odd that Mr. Gibbons finally decides to come home and Ms. Gibbons wants to go to Washington?)
One, big happy family: Gov. Kenny Guinn will appoint state Sen. Mark Amodei as attorney general to replace U.S. District Judge Brian Sandoval. Amodei, having salved the wounds with Guinn and gaming from Sessions '03, will be considered the favorite for the seat in '06. Only Catherine Cortez-Masto, the assistant county manager, will be seen as a threat.
The no-tax session: The gubernatorial giveback will sail through Carson City, although special interests will wail about the lame-duck missing a chance to infuse money into education and Nevada's social safety net. Lawmakers will pass a 4 percent property tax cap, with some bells and whistles attached, but an initiative to roll back rates will threaten to erase their action. In other legislative news, there will be a move to drag the Southern Nevada Water Authority under the state's oversight.
Now which Nevada guy is that? Sen. John Ensign will have Harry Reid-like money in the bank (maybe even a check from Reid) and no substantial Democrat will make a move against him. And as a bonus, Ensign will get into the GOP leadership ranks and be on TV more than the Senate minority leader.
More hot air floats: Assemblywoman Chris Giunchigliani, sick of being a pain in everyone's neck in Carson City, will decide it's time for her to be a thorn on the County Commission. She will run for Myrna Williams' seat -- whether or not the incumbent does -- and she will be seen as a prohibitive favorite. Sen. Valerie Wiener will announce she is running for secretary of state. State Sen. Bob Beers will whisper that he is the only Republican who can beat Jim Gibbons in a gubernatorial primary. County Treasurer Laura Fitzpatrick will declare she wants to take Krolicki's place.
And just for fun: Controller Kathy Augustine will be appointed to head the state's Personnel Division because of her manifest skill in dealing with employees. State Sen. Bob Coffin will author a paper on the physics of throwing papers toward -- but not at -- employees and have an honorary degree conferred by the regents. Steve Wynn will shock the gaming community by hiring Mandalay Resort Group attorney and prime political player Mike Sloan to head his government affairs division. Brian Greenspun will buy the Review-Journal, part of a baseball team and lavish praise and perks on his favorite pundit.
One note about my much-vaunted infallibility and a fessing up for last year's predictions: I was right that the congressional delegation would be intact, that the Democrats would pick up seats in the Assembly and the Republicans would lose one seat in the Senate and that the public employee/tax repeal petitions would fail -- that's pretty impressive, if I must say so -- and I must. But I erred -- and badly -- in suggesting that Rep. Jim Gibbons would be chairing the House Intelligence Committee, Sen. John Ensign would be floating his name for governor, Deborah Agosti would be re-elected to the state Supreme Court and Doug Selby would leave and Michael Mack would stay at City Hall.
So, my keen analysis tells me, I got the important ones right and missed a few minor ones. Who says oracles can't suffer from denial?
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