Thursday, April 21, 2005 | 11:02 a.m.
Nevada will be the nation's fastest growing state for the next two and half decades and by 2030 will have more than 4 million residents -- more than twice as many as in 2000, according to a U.S. Census Bureau population growth study released today.
The study calculated that Nevada will experience a 114 percent population increase over the tally of the 2000 Census, an increase of 2.3 million people, which will result in a statewide population of 4.3 million. The lion's share of that increase will be in Southern Nevada, experts say.
"Simply put, in 2030, everything will be double what you see now," Nevada State Demographer Jeff Hardcastle said. "That is a point to ponder, as all current jobs will have to be doubled -- police, firemen, doctors, lawyers, bankers, as well as roads and parks -- all in the next 25 years."
Hardcastle noted that it took Nevada 140 years to grow to 2 million people. Now, if the Census Bureau's projections are correct, a comparable feat will be duplicated within the next quarter of a century.
Hardcastle said the new Census study is pretty much in line with his figuring. Last year he projected that, by 2024, 3.6 million people would live in Nevada.
The 2000 Census, adjusted in 2004, estimates Nevada's current population at 2.3 million, with about 71 percent living in the south end of the state.
The figures released in the new report conjure an image of Las Vegas growing vertically with high-rise apartments and outwardly with houses built on mountains and encroaching on current outlying bedroom communities, experts say.
Las Vegas will need to build more schools, will be more polluted, will more than ever need to find ways to conserve dwindling resources including water and will have significantly more traffic congestion, experts say.
"Nevada was the 35th largest state in population in 2000 but it is projected to move up to 28th in 2030 -- that's an impressive jump," said Robert Bernstein, spokesman for the Census Bureau. "Not too many states rise in the rankings seven spots in 30 years.
"But this is nothing tremendously surprising. It is a continuation of trends with Nevada being the fastest growing state for about the last 20 years."
Bernstein noted that Nevada's neighbor to the east, Arizona, also will lose some of its wide-open atmosphere as the Census Bureau projects it will climb from 20th most populated state in 2000 to 10th most populated in 2030.
Arizona is projected to have the second highest rate of population growth -- 109 percent -- which means it is expected to have more than 10.7 million residents in 2030. The third greatest increase will be in Florida at 80 percent followed by Texas at 60 percent over the populations from the 2000 Census, the Census study says.
Keith Schwer, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at UNLV, said, despite the big increase of residents to the area, Southern Nevadans likely will adjust in the next 25 years as they have adjusted in the previous 25 years during the great population boom of that period.
"Las Vegas will look like what other cities of 4 million look like now," he said. "The increased concentration will result in more high-rise buildings or Las Vegans moving further away -- like to Pahrump, toward Stateline (Primm), toward Arizona and to Mesquite -- and commuting to Las Vegas to work."
Schwer said Las Vegas undoubtedly will have a larger number of hotel rooms to meet tourism demands and a second major airport in the Ivanpah Valley -- now a dry-lake bed about 30 miles south of Las Vegas that 25 years from now figures to be the outskirts of town, dotted with housing and other businesses.
"Las Vegas will have much greater international name recognition," Schwer said of the future. "We also will look to develop in other economic areas just as Los Angeles and San Diego have done as they have continued to grow."
Schwer said doomsday projections of heavily polluted air, crippling traffic snarls and dried-up water sources can be avoided by local officials addressing added demands brought on by growth now and regularly over the next two decades.
"Our air won't be like the air our settlers breathed in 1905, but we will realize what the cost of growth is and have increased regulations to address pollution and other environmental concerns," he said.
"And while there are a host of unknowns with respect to available water, we will make adjustments and be more adaptive in using what water we have."
Highway officials say more arteries are now being planned and built to handle the projected heavy traffic congestion projected for the next two decades.
"By 2023, we project a daily traffic count through the Interstate-515 Beltway Interchange (at U.S. 95) of 220,800," Nevada Transportation Department spokesman Bob McKenzie said. "We are projecting a 60 percent increase over the current figure (133,750 vehicles per day) for just that one interchange."
The $82 million under-construction I-515/U.S. 95 interchange is the state's second most expensive project behind the recent $93 million renovation of the Spaghetti Bowl in downtown Las Vegas, McKenzie said.
Another area where the population increase will have a huge impact is the school system.
Walt Rulffes, chief financial officer for the Clark County School District, said the latest Census report confirms the district's projections based on current trends.
"There is nothing on the horizon to indicate there will be a letup in the growth," Rulffes said, noting his testimony before the Nevada Legislature has encouraged the state to assure that "the tax structure is sufficient enough to fund the schools that are needed to accommodate the growth."
Currently, 281,000 students attend 302 Clark County public schools, several of which use portable units to reduce overcrowding in classrooms. About 12,000 new students enter the district each year, the school district says.
Rulffes said that between 2006 and 2008 the district must start building 30 to 40 new schools to meet the projected need by 2012, the furthest date for which the school district has planned.
There's another aspect of the Census projections that will pose challenges for the school system as well.
The new Census study says Nevada's non-Hispanic white population, which accounted for three of four residents (or 75 percent) in 1995, will, by 2025, decrease to six of every 10 people (or 60 percent). During that same period, the Hispanic population is expected to rise from 12.6 percent to 25.2 percent of the state's population, the study says.
Rulffes said the school district already has "language issues" with Spanish speakers.
"Approximately 20,000 or more of our students are challenged by the English language -- some speak none at all," he said. "We are seeking supplemental funding to help these students become fluent enough (in English) to pass the proficiency test."
And Rulffes and others say they believe the increase in the Hispanic population will be even larger than the Census projects.
Keith Schwer, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at UNLV, says the projected doubling of Nevada's population comes as no surprise to him. But he believes the Census Bureau is underprojecting the increase in the Hispanic population percentage.
"Clark County now has about 20 percent Hispanic residents so I think the Census' projection there is low," he said. "I believe the percentage of Hispanics in Nevada will be at least 30 percent by 2030."
Hardcastle agrees, having previously projected that by 2024, 31 percent of the state's residents will be Hispanic.
The Census Bureau says the latest state projections represent "only an interim update to incorporate the results of Census 2000" and that the agency plans to develop modifications this year to projections by race and Hispanic origin.
Another segment of the population that has its own unique needs also is projected to rise through the next couple of decades, according to the Census.
Nevada's senior population (those 65 and older) on percentage will skyrocket as the Baby Boomers -- those born between 1946 and 1964 -- reach retirement, while its youth population (those 20 and younger) will shrink a little.
The proportion of Nevada's seniors is expected to rise from 11 percent of the state's population in 2000 to 18.6 percent in 2030. During that same period, Nevada's youth will decrease from 25.6 percent to 25.1 percent, the study says.
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