Thursday, Sept. 30, 2004 | 2:32 a.m.
Republican President George Bush leads Democratic presidential challenger John Kerry by a 47 percent to 42 percent margin in Nevada, according to a new Las Vegas Sun/KLAS TV Channel 8/KNPR Nevada Public Radio poll.
Bush's lead is reduced to 4 percentage points over Kerry, the Massachusetts senator, when including undecided voters who are leaning toward one of the candidates.
Bush also has a job approval rating of 50 percent while a majority of those polled also rated him higher than his opponent on protecting the United States from terrorism and resolving the war in Iraq.
On terrorism, the Bush lead was a very strong 60-33, and on Iraq it was 52-42.
Those issues will be the key topics of tonight's first presidential debate at the University of Miami in Coral Gables, Fla.
The poll of 600 very likely voters in Nevada, a key battleground state leading up to the November election, has a margin of error of 4 percent. The poll was conducted over a nine-day period through Tuesday by Washington-based polling firm Belden Russonello & Stewart.
"This is definitely a state in play," Kate Stewart, a partner in the polling firm, said Wednesday. "I still think this is a battleground state."
Among those polled, 40 percent were registered Republicans, 36 percent were registered Democrats and 16 percent were registered independents.
In the horse race poll that has Bush ahead 47-42 over Kerry, independent candidate and consumer advocate Ralph Nader commanded 2 percent with 7 percent undecided.
When the undecided voters were asked whether they were leaning toward Bush or Kerry, the president's lead was trimmed to 48-44 over Kerry, with 2 percent going to Nader and 5 percent undecided.
Other poll highlights:
Bush enjoys leads among voters 18 to 39 years old (48 percent to 41 percent over Kerry) and 40 to 59 years old (48-39). Kerry holds a slimmer advantage among voters aged 60 and older (47-43). When undecided voters were asked to state a preference, Bush's advantage among the 18-39 crowd shrunk to 5 percent, but he also pulled within 1 percent of Kerry among the senior citizens.
Kerry holds a slim lead in Clark County (45-43), a margin that increases to 48-44 when undecided voters were asked to state a preference. But Bush has an overwhelming advantage in Nevada's 15 rural counties (62-24), a margin that widens to 67-26 with leaning undecided voters. The president also enjoys a slim 46-44 lead in Washoe County -- 48-47 when the leaning undecided voters are included.
Bush has a sizeable lead among male voters (49-40), a margin that stays intact when leaning undecided voters are considered (51-42). Both major candidates get 44 percent of the female vote, with Kerry holding a 2-point advantage with women when undecided voters are counted.
Among Bush supporters, 88 percent are white and 7 percent are Hispanic. Of Kerry's supporters, 70 percent are white, 13 percent are black and 10 percent are Hispanic. Asian-American voters make up 1 percent of the support of both major candidates.
A silver lining for Kerry is that he holds a 43-34 advantage over Bush among registered independent voters, a lead that grows to 47-36 when leaning undecided voters are included. Kerry also has a 49-34 advantage among moderates.
The problem for Kerry in Nevada is that conservatives outnumber liberals by a nearly 2-to-1 margin, and Bush holds a 74-17 advantage among conservatives. Bush also has a sizeable advantage, 50-40, among voters who have lived in Nevada for less than 10 years.
While 50 percent indicated they approved of the way Bush was handling his job as president, 45 percent disapproved. Men favored the way he was running the presidency by a 55-42 margin, but women disapproved by a tally of 49-46.
"If you look at Bush's approval rating, for an incumbent this is not overwhelming," Stewart said. "Being right at 50 percent for an incumbent president this close to the election is pretty bad. You would think a wartime president would be running much higher."
Voters in Clark and Washoe counties narrowly disapproved of Bush's job performance by margins of 49-47 and 48-46 respectively. But rural voters overwhelming back his performance, 69-27.
The problem for Bush is that registered independent voters disapprove of his job performance by 50-41 while 41 percent of undecided voters also disapprove, compared with only 32 percent who like the job he has done.
Bush's 60-33 advantage over Kerry on protecting the United States on terrorism cuts across gender, age and locale but is particularly pronounced among men (64-32), voters aged 18 to 39 (67-27), rural residents (72-18) and undecided voters (43-9). In Clark County, the advantage for Bush on fighting terrorism is 59-35.
Also, 23 percent of registered Democrats said Bush would do better on this issue, compared with only 4 percent of Republicans who favored Kerry on the war against terrorism. Likewise, 29 percent of liberals sided with Bush but only 11 percent of conservatives felt Kerry would do better in this area.
On resolving the war in Iraq, Bush's 52-42 advantage over Kerry also cuts across gender, age and locale.
The greatest margins for Bush on this issue are among men (56-40), voters aged 40 to 59 (53-40) and rural residents (72-23). Undecided voters also favored Bush on Iraq by a margin of 36-23 but registered independent voters favored Kerry by 47 to 44. In Clark County, the nod goes to Bush by a slight 48-46 margin.
Among Democrats, Kerry has a stronger favorable rating on resolving the war in Iraq (77 percent) than he does on protecting this country from terrorism (66 percent). Among Republicans, Bush has a stronger rating on fighting terrorism (95 percent) than on Iraq (89 percent).
Stewart said tonight's debate on Iraq and the war on terrorism could be very important for undecided and independent voters but added that "putting that much weight on one debate may be overstating it."
"If Kerry shows that he has a new plan and can take us in a new direction, these numbers can change," Stewart said. "In my view, Sen. Kerry has more potential for going up in the polls than President Bush at this point.
"People know President Bush's position on Iraq. He's probably not going to say anything new that his supporters don't already know. For John Kerry there's opportunity to make headway."
The poll numbers show that Nevadans think Bush is a more focused leader in conducting the war in Iraq, Tracey Schmitt, a spokesman for the campaign of Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney said.
"There's an indication that Nevadans understand how important it is that we have a leader who has one position rather than 10," Schmitt said. "John Kerry's vacillation on the critical issues facing this and future generations troubles voters. This poll is an indication of that."
But Kerry spokesman Sean Smith said the Kerry campaign thinks the race is close in Nevada and that the next 30 days will be more crucial than the past six months.
"It's probably a bit closer than that," Smith said of Bush's lead in the poll. "We know that polls sort of lag behind a little bit of where the race actually is, and we've had a lot of momentum in the last couple of weeks."
Smith also said Kerry has reason to be optimistic in Nevada given Bush's job approval rating.
"George Bush consistently tells the American people that he will keep us safe and that's something that people want to believe that their president will do for them," Smith said. "They want to give the president the benefit of the doubt, especially at this point in time. But the facts just prove otherwise."
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