Wednesday, Sept. 29, 2004 | 10:07 a.m.
Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at (702) 259-4041 or [email protected].
ATS: Stands for against the spread.
COVER: To win the game by more than the point spread.
POINT SPREAD: Or spread, for short. The number of points added to, or subtracted from, a team's actual score for betting.
PROPOSITION: Or prop, for short. Any exotic, unusual or offbeat wagering opportunity.
STRAIGHT UP: Abbreviated "SU." Refers to actual wins and losses regardless of the point spread.
College football teams that are undefeated against the point spread (ATS) this season with straight-up record (SU).
College football teams that have yet to beat the point spread (ATS) this season with straight-up record (SU).
SOURCE: StatFox.com
When Stanford plays host to the Washington Huskies on Saturday, it won't be just another Pac-10 game for football bettors.
The clash at Stanford Stadium features one team, the Cardinal, that has covered the point spread in every game this season against another, Washington, that has failed to cover the spread each time out.
Gamblers seek out such situations, especially at this time of the year, hoping the oddsmaker has been slow to react in the early part of the season -- perhaps leaving some extra value in the betting line on the team that has been covering.
The betting action on the game this week backs up the theory: Stanford opened a 10-point favorite at the Stardust and has been bet up to a 12 1/2-point choice.
Injuries to several starters on Washington's offense likely played a role in the line move, but so did the Huskies' 0-3 mark against the spread. The Cardinal is 3-0 against the spread, 2-1 straight up (see chart, this page).
Las Vegas handicapper "Fairway" Jay Ginsbach said he certainly understands the line move.
"You always have teams like Stanford that begin the season with little to no expectations, then they come out and show they can get it done consistently," said Ginsbach, online at fairwayjay.com.
"In Washington you have a team that was picked to be in the middle of the pack, but now they're a dead play-against team.
"Their coach is probably in trouble, they're 0-3 and not covering ... ultimately the line will get so high that there's no value in playing against them, but I don't think we're there yet."
Ginsbach said Stanford, even after an impressive victory against Brigham Young and a 3-point loss to Southern Cal as a 22-point underdog, is still "playing under the radar" of the oddsmaker, at least for the time being.
"This is a team (Washington) they should be able to hammer," Ginsbach said.
Among other college teams unbeaten against the spread, Ginsbach is high on Fresno State, Louisville and Minnesota.
"For Fresno, playing at Boise State (Oct. 23) is the biggest game of the rest of their season," said Ginsbach, who appears regularly on the Vegas Sportswire radio show (7-9 a.m. weekdays, 1460-AM). "And if Louisville can pull off a big upset at Miami (Oct. 14), they have potential to be a BCS (Bowl Championship Series) team."
Although he's a 1987 graduate of the University of Minnesota, Ginsbach said he has been backing the Golden Gophers (3-0 ATS, 4-0 SU) with his head, not his heart.
"At Michigan (Oct. 9) is a big game for them, but they have a tremendous running game, and they can just dominate," Ginsbach said. "A New Year's Day bowl game is a real possibility."
The only other college game this week that pits a team that has covered every game against a team that has yet to cover the spread is a lower-profile matchup between San Jose State and visiting Rice.
The Owls (3-0 ATS, 2-1 SU) opened as a road favorite of 14 1/2 points and the line has held steady or has been bet up to 15 depending on where in Las Vegas you shop.
For bettors who pay attention to this pattern, the ideal situation comes when they have an opportunity to bet on a team that has covered every game, when that team is an underdog against a team yet to cover.
That could happen Oct. 23 in a marquee Southeastern Conference matchup between Georgia (currently 0-2 ATS, 3-0 SU) and Arkansas. If those teams keep up their current pace, and if form holds, Georgia will likely enter the game favored by approximately 3 points.
Fight odds
In the heavyweight event in Saturday's boxing tripleheader at Caesars Palace, Wladimir Klitschko is a minus 550 favorite against DaVarryl Williamson, a plus 375 underdog, according to odds at the Palms. (Bettors must lay $5.50 for each $1 they hope to win on Klitschko; Williamson backers would win $3.75, plus their original stake, for each $1 wagered.)
In a junior middleweight title fight, Kassim Ouma is a minus 220 favorite against Verno Phillips, who's plus 180. In a super middleweight title bout on the card, Jeff Lacy is a minus 165 favorite against Syd Vanderpool (plus 135).
In a pay-per-view match from New York on Saturday, Felix Trinidad makes his return to the ring as a minus 270 favorite against Ricardo Mayorga, a plus 210 underdog at the Palms.
Stardust contest
Oddsmaker Cesar Robaina got past veteran sports gambler Pete White this past weekend to advance to the second round of the Stardust Invitational football handicapping tournament. Robaina went 4-2-1 against the point spread with his seven selections, while White finished 3-4.
At 9 p.m. Friday at the Stardust, author and handicapper Kevin O'Neill meets Mike Orkin, a statistics professor at the California State University at Hayward, in another first-round matchup.
The contest, in its 10th year, features 16 entrants competing in a single-elimination tournament for a $10,000 prize.
Ichiro prop
When Antigua-based betting shop World Wide Tele-Sports first posted a proposition on whether Ichiro Suzuki would break George Sisler's record for hits in a season, on Aug. 23, Ichiro was an underdog of better than 2-1.
Late last week, as Ichiro approached Sisler's 84-year-old record of 257 hits, the odds that Ichiro would eclipse the mark had dropped to 5-16 (win $5 for each $16 wagered); it was 12-5 he would not break it.
The offshore book's oddsmakers did a good job adjusting the line along the way, as the prop attracted a little more than $4,000 in wagers on each side, said Kyle Fratini of WWTS (betwwts.com).
With the regular season winding down, the Ichiro prop has been taken off the board.
Ichiro needs four hits in the Seattle Mariners' final five games to break the record; he averages 1.6 hits a game.
So if you figure Ichiro can be expected to get eight hits in those five games, and if you assume an individual baseball player's hits are unrelated, independent events (as we will), then today's odds would have Ichiro a prohibitive favorite of better than 20-1 to break Sisler's record.
Race wrap
Champ Car driver Sebastien Bourdais won Saturday's race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway as a 9-5 favorite, edging Newman/Haas Racing teammate Bruno Junqueira, who was virtually a co-favorite in the betting.
In the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series race that led off the doubleheader at LVMS, winner Shane Hmiel went off at 20-1 in local sports books.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. is a 3-1 favorite to win Sunday's EA Sports 500 at Talladega. Other top contenders are Michael Waltrip (6-1), Jeff Gordon (7-1) and Jimmie Johnson (10-1), according to odds at the Palms.
In the featured driver matchup, Earnhardt is a minus 170 favorite to finish ahead of Gordon (plus 140).
The Palms also has a selection of over/unders on finishing positions, including one set at 3 1/2 on Earnhardt -- it's minus 140 that he'll finish third or better in the race.
archive
