Friday, Sept. 24, 2004 | 10:03 a.m.
Steve Guiermand
WHEN UTAH STATE HAS THE BALL
Utah State run offense vs. UNLV run defense
Something has got to give in this matchup between one of the nation's worst run offenses in Utah State and one of the nation's worst run defenses in UNLV. The Aggies rank 115th out of 117 teams in rushing offense with an average of just 55.67 yards per game. Sure, the schedule included teams like Alabama and Utah but it also included a home date with Idaho. UNLV, which did a nice job of run defense in its 18-3 loss at Wisconsin, totally fell apart against Air Force's triple-option, allowing 278 yards on the ground, including 171 alone by Falcon fullbacks on basic dive plays. The Rebels rank 101st nationally in rush defense after that fiasco allowing 231.7 yards per game.
Edge: UNLV
Utah State pass offense vs. UNLV pass defense
One thing Utah State can do is throw the ball effectively. The Aggies have an experienced, all-Sun Belt Conference quarterback in Travis Cox who has thrown for 3,353 yards in his career and had at least one touchdown pass in 14 of the last 15 games. The Aggies have a young but talented group of receivers led by freshman Kevin Robinson (17 receptions, 234 yards, two TDs), who caught a 35-yard touchdown reception at Alabama, and sophomore Tony Pennyman (14 catches, 156 yards, 1 TD). UNLV's secondary play has been spotty at best and was picked apart by Air Force last week. 'Nuff said.
Edge: Utah State
WHEN UNLV HAS THE BALL
UNLV run offense vs. Utah State run defense
The Rebels have been unable to break any big runs since their opening 42-17 loss at Tennessee as teams scheme to keep senior speedster Dominique Dorsey from getting around the corner. Rebels coach John Robinson has promised to play two bigger and more physical backs, Dyante Perkins and Ohio State transfer JaJa Riley, this week along with bruising fullback Chad Henley. Utah State has the kind of defense that could be vulnerable to a power running attack allowing 208.33 yards per game. If the Rebels can't establish a strong ground game against the Aggies, they might has well check in the gear and start planning on 2005.
Edge: UNLV.
UNLV pass offense vs. Utah State pass defense The Aggies suffered a big loss when all-Sun Belt free safety Terrance Washington, who had 13 tackles at Alabama, ruptured his left ACL against Idaho and was lost for the season. Converted cornerback Andre Bala took his place and had 10 tackles in Utah State's 48-6 loss to Utah. UNLV ranks 101st in the nation in passing offense with an average of just 145.7 yards per game. The Rebels welcome back senior quarterback Kurt Nantkes to the starting lineup which should help but the wide receiving corps are plagued by injuries to starting flanker Terry Furlow (ankle) and backup Tremayne Kirkland (shoulder) which means converted running back Alvin Marshall could see some action there. UNLV head coach John Robinson promises to open things up against the Aggies but may not have the horses to do it quite yet.
Edge: Utah State
SPECIAL TEAMS
How much does UNLV miss all-Mountain West Conference punt returner Tremayne Kirkland? Well, the Rebels rank 117th (dead last) in that category in the NCAA this week with minus-four yards in returns. Field goal kicking and kickoffs aren't much better. Senior punter Gary Cook ranks 18th in the nation with a 43.9 average and is coming off his best game of the season. Utah State, however, ranks 5th nationally in net punting with a 42.61 average behind junior Ben Chaet, who already has dropped 17 punts inside the 20-yard line. Chaet doubles on field goal kicking and is one-for-one, a 44-yarder at Alabama.
Edge: Utah State
INTANGIBLES
After starting a disappointing 0-3, will UNLV pack it in or play with some pride? The players say they are still together and will continue to play hard. But actions speak louder than words. It's time for senior leaders like Adam Seward, Jamaal Brimmer, Ryan Claridge and Kurt Nantkes to step up big-time and turn things around. If they don't, they'll go down as the most underachieving team in UNLV history. Got to figure the Rebels will have an inspired effort against a team they should defeat handily at home.
Edge: UNLV.
COACHING Utah State coach Mick Dennehy is 17-31 in his fifth year in Logan and could be on the hotseat this year. His contract expires at the end of the 2005 season. Dennehy had excellent success at his prior stop at Montana where he led the Grizzlies to two Big Sky championships. UNLV coach John Robinson and his staff know this a must-win game to salvage any hopes of a winning season.
Edge: UNLV.
KEYS TO VICTORY
To win, Utah State must ...
1. Throw, throw, throw. As Air Force proved last week, the Rebel secondary is very vulnerable.
2. Start fast. If the Rebels fall behind quickly, they could just toss it in for the rest of the season.
3. Load up on the run. If UNLV has to rely on throwing the ball to win, it's in big trouble.
To win, UNLV must ...
1. Run the football. It's nice to say you'll open up your offense but it won't be easy to throw play-action passes if you don't establish the run first.
2. Show some heart. There's no crying in football. The Rebels need to quit feeling sorry for themselves and play with passion.
3. Force turnovers. Utah State ranks 112th in the nation in turnover margin with 10 in three games. The sputtering Rebel offense could definitely use a few short fields to work with.
THE PICK
UNLV 24, Utah State 13.
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