Wednesday, Sept. 22, 2004 | 9:28 a.m.
Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at (702) 259-4041 or [email protected].
We're two weeks into the National Football League season.
Do you know where your bankroll is?
Every year, some joker who's operating a football prediction contest will include one wacky wild-card entry.
Last year, for instance, one of the contestants in the football contest on Howard Stern's radio show was a live chicken.
The New York Post was known for including a "spinner" -- like the one in the old All-Star Baseball board game -- among its roster of football prognosticators.
The idea is that if the bird or the spinner outdoes one of the handicappers in the contest, that person is embarrassed and everybody has a good laugh. The sad truth is that on average, over the course of the season, a spinner or a chicken will perform better in wagering on the NFL than the typical gambler in Las Vegas.
No kidding.
Here's why: The chicken can be expected to pick winners at a rate of precisely 50 percent. It's a coin flip.
But the average Las Vegas mook obliterates his bankroll by falling into traps such as:
To avert such a catastrophe, consider these eight simple rules for betting the NFL:
1. Do not lay 110. In a standard straight bet, the gambler is required to risk $1.10 for each $1 he's trying to win. The extra fee is the house's commission, or "vigorish."
Certain sports books offer discounts on the vigorish at designated times.
Among the "reduced-vig" promotions currently available in Las Vegas:
To illustrate the value of reduced-vig specials, let's say you bet 100 NFL games, with a wagering unit of $100 per game not including the vig, over the course of a season.
If you're a bettor who hits 50 percent against the point spread (most people and all chickens), you'll lose $500 over the course of the season betting at minus 110, but lose only $250 betting into a minus 105 line.
If you're a professional-level bettor who consistently hits 55 percent against the spread, you'll make $550 against the standard vig, $775 against the reduced vig.
2. Do not tolerate bad numbers. If the point spread in a game is 3 points all week and it goes to 3 1/2 shortly before kickoff, whatever you do, don't play the favorite minus the 3 1/2. Either take the underdog or lay off the game.
A good example came in the Sept. 9 season opener in which the favored New England Patriots beat the Indianapolis Colts, 27-24. The betting line had fluctuated between 3 and 3 1/2 points. Any bettor who was paying attention either won or pushed, no matter which side he liked.
3. As a corollary to No. 2, insist on "good" numbers. If the line on a particular game is 6 1/2 points and you like the underdog, make sure you find a line of 7 before firing. If you don't, even after scouring smaller, out-of-the-way sports books, then lay off the game.
4. If you play two-team parlays, make sure you're getting odds of 14-5. The standard payout of 13-5 isn't going to cut it.
5. If you play three-team parlays, make sure you're getting 6 1/2-1. As part of their "Happy Hour" specials on Friday afternoons, Station Casinos sports books offer the more desirable higher odds on parlays.
This is an excellent promotion for bettors.
6. Do not play four-team parlays. If for some reason you do, make sure you're getting odds of 12-1. If you play these at 10-1 or 11-1, you will rapidly kill your bankroll.
7. Do not play five-team parlays. You won't even have the opportunity to kill your bankroll. It will die of embarrassment from being associated with someone who plays five-team parlays.
8. Avoid road favorites, especially those of more than 3 points. Historically, road favorites cover the point spread at a rate of under 48 percent, according to the Web site wizardofodds.com.
Most gamblers, until they become more proficient at this game, are better off sticking with underdogs and small home favorites.
Fight wrap
Middleweight champ Bernard Hopkins entered the ring as a minus 220 favorite (bettors risk $2.20 for each $1 they're trying to win) before knocking out Oscar De La Hoya (plus 180) Saturday night at the MGM Grand in the year's biggest fight.
The line on Hopkins was as low as minus 170 at some spots, including Caesars Entertainment properties, Saturday afternoon.
In one notable bout on the undercard, Las Vegas super welterweight Kofi Jantuah recorded a first-round knockout of Marco Antonio Rubio.
There was no betting line on the fight in Las Vegas sports books, but some offshore operations had Jantuah at approximately plus 160. Talk about a live underdog: Jantuah floored Rubio for good just 33 seconds into the fight.
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