Friday, Sept. 17, 2004 | 10:09 a.m.
Steve Guiremand
WHEN AIR FORCE HAS THE BALL
Air Force run offense vs. UNLV run defense
The Falcons perennially challenge for the NCAA rushing lead with their well-executed option attack. This year doesn't figure to be any different even though true freshman Shaun Carney takes over at quarterback for Chance Harridge. Air Force is averaging 267.5 yards per game on the ground and has lost just one fumble in 105 rushing attempts. Senior halfback Darnell Stephens, who rushed for 63 yards on 14 carries against the Rebels a year ago, returns in the backfield as do a pair of bulldozer-like fullbacks in Dan Shaffer and Adam Cole. UNLV's defense, led by senior linebackers Adam Seward, Ryan Claridge, Reggie Butler and John Andrews, held the Falcon offense to just one touchdown in the first three quarters of last year's 24-7 loss in Colorado Springs and no doubt will be very motivated to play well after some not-so-flattering comments this week by Carney.
Edge: Even.
Air Force pass offense vs. UNLV pass defense
UNLV's secondary, torched early and often in its 42-17 season opening loss at Tennessee, bounced back in a big way at Wisconsin, holding the Badgers to just 131 yards passing last week in Madison. Junior college transfer Charles Ealy more than held his own in his first Division I start and does a good job of playing bump-and-run coverage. The tough part for the Rebels is that they must think run first against Air Force's option attack and then adjust to the pass. Carney has put up respectable numbers (19 of 32, 228 yards, 3 touchdowns, 2 intereceptions) in his first two games and has a good group of receivers to throw to led by senior Alex Messerall and 6-foot-4 junior Jason Brown.
Edge: UNLV.
WHEN UNLV HAS THE BALL
UNLV run offense vs. Air Force run defense
The Falcons have had their problems stopping the run so far in 2004 allowing 342 yards rushing in a season-opening 56-14 loss to Cal including 181 yards and three touchdowns alone by tailback J.J. Arrington. Eastern Washington, a I-AA school that had been flattened by Nicholls State, 37-14, a week earlier, even managed 120 rushing yards last week in a 42-20 loss. Explosive senior tailback Dominique Dorsey, who has gained 178 yards on 32 attempts against a pair of Top 25 foes, figures to exploit what appears to be an inexperienced Air Force defense that may be a step slow.
Edge: UNLV.
UNLV pass offense vs. Air Force pass defense
A red flag has to go up for coach Fisher DeBerry and company when Eastern Washington nearly throws for 300 yards (293 to be exact) and three touchdowns against your team -- and then openly boasts that they knew they could do it. UNLV has played two superior pass defenses in Tennesse and Wisconsin, both on the road in noisy surroundings. Senior wide receiver Earvin Johnson, slowed by a knee injury a week ago at Wisconsin, is back close to 100 percent for this one and figures to have a big game against a Falcons secondary that returns just one starter, 5-foot-10 senior corner Nate Allen.
Edge: UNLV.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Just about nobody does special teams better than DeBerry's Falcons, who have blocked 88 kicks since 1990. That ranks them second behind only Virginia Tech (89). New Falcons punter Donny Heaton is off to an excellent start, averaging 45.5 yards on 11 attempts including a 62-yarder. The Falcons have yet to attempt a field goal this season. UNLV, meanwhile, had a complete special teams breakdown at Wisconsin, which played a key role in an 18-3 loss. Senior punter Gary Cook, expected to be a special teams weapon, has been erratic but still is averaging a solid 42.3 yards.
Edge: Air Force
INTANGIBLES
UNLV finally gets to play a home game after long back-to-back trips to Tennessee and Wisconsin. A veteran team with 14 returning starters, the Rebels know this is a must-win if they are to reach of their goal of making a bowl game this year. Air Force, however, is usually at its best in September before injuries begin to mount. The Falcons have won eight of their past nine conference openers. This will be the first road start for Carney, who definitely will have the attention of the Rebels defense after his remarks this week.
Edge: UNLV.
COACHING
UNLV coach John Robinson has been pointing his team toward this game since the start of fall practice. Air Force coach DeBerry is one of college football's most underrated coaches and is the winningest coach in service academy history with a 157-89-1 mark. Both are future members of the College Football Hall of Fame.
Edge: Even.
KEYS TO VICTORY
To win, Air Force must ...
1. Run, run, run. The Falcons are at their best when they're controlling the clock and grinding it out on the ground with their option attack.
2. Start fast. This is freshman quarterback Shaun Carney's first road start and a nice early lead should help settle his nerves.
3. Throw deep. UNLV has to gear most of its defensive attention to stopping the option which could leave the secondary vulnerable to play-action throws.
To win, UNLV must ...
1. Stop the run. No secret here. The Falcons live and die by their option attack.
2. Control the clock. That means giving Air Force a dose of its own medicine with long, time-consuming drives.
3. Turn Dominique Dorsey loose. If Cal's J.J. Arrington can get 181 yards and three touchdowns on just 16 carries against the Falcons, think of what the explosive Dorsey should be able to do.
THE PICK
UNLV 24, Air Force 13.
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