Friday, Sept. 10, 2004 | 4:23 a.m.
WEEKEND EDITION
September 11 - 12, 2004
A few hours before the polls closed Tuesday, I received a phone call from George Harris, the GOP operative whose quixotic projects included trying to save endangered state Sen. Ann O'Connell.
He had been in O'Connell's district since 4 a.m., Harris told me, and it was guaranteed that she would win going away, perhaps by as much as 7 percentage points. It was at that moment that I knew with absolute, metaphysical certainty O'Connell would lose.
If only all elections could be so simply explained with the always-reliable Harris Rule: When his lips move, bet the other way.
As the Wednesday morning quarterbacking flowed in after last week's primary, I was reminded once again of how foolish it is to draw definitive lessons from low-turnout elections, especially in small political subdivisions, and how often they can be false predictors of general election outcomes.
Sometimes, though, Occam's Razor applies. No membership in the pundit's Club of America is required to conclude that a federal indictment is a campaign albatross (thus the funeral wreath for the County Commission's flower lady, Mary Kincaid-Chauncey) or that being successfully portrayed as a taxaholic is almost always fatal (R.I.P. state Sens. Ann O'Connell and Ray Rawson) or that the weight of accumulated scandals eventually is crushing (no more zipping down the road to Carson City in your Z4, Assemblyman Wendell Williams).
But while elections can be predicted using the scientifically proven principles of The Harris Rule or Occam's Razor, elections are like snowflakes: No two are alike. So, too, with Primary '04, which reinforced some truisms and created some new ones while setting the stage for several interesting general election contests.
Some lessons learned, lessons found and lessons to come:
Grass roots is the real green, especially in primaries: During early voting, a call came to the home of Joe Heck, running in the most important state Senate primary of the year. The caller urged Heck to get out to vote. Only problem: The call came from Ann O'Connell's campaign.
Meanwhile, led by voter identification expert Jim Ferrence, who had some late assistance from another superb organizer, Billy Rogers, the Heck campaign was moving people in a concerted, professional effort. The difference was obvious when the early voting numbers were posted -- Heck had a seven-point lead, a lead he never relinquished.
O'Connell lost for other reasons, too -- too many new voters, her late start because of her husband's death, her inability to respond consistently to the charge she was a taxer and spender. But beyond the message, her lack of a grass roots operation -- basically, it consisted of state Sen. Sandra Tiffany, who shares the district, making cold calls -- was decisive.
This lesson also is applicable, although in a different way, to the loss by O'Connell's colleague, Ray Rawson. Rawson had more money than Assemblyman Bob Beers and was aided by a blizzard of third-party spending. And while Rawson was hurt by his lack of dynamism and his spending record, Beers was never threatened because he did what Rawson never really has -- he walked the district himself and is engaging and glib.
Rawson's supporters knew their man was a Dead Man Walking fairly early on -- that's why they moved heaven and Earth to get any Democratic candidates and third-party candidates out of the contest so it would go to a general election, where Rawson might benefit from more moderate and liberal voters. But even had that happened, I'm not sure Beers couldn't have still won with his door-to-door campaign.
Just saying No is the best motivator: Four years ago, when exit polling was conducted after Chip Maxfield's crushing of County Commissioner Lance Malone in a primary, the majority of voters could not tell you who Maxfield was. But nearly all knew who Malone was -- and most didn't like him.
My guess is you could achieve the same results this year if you asked voters in their respective districts about Joe Heck and Harvey Munford, who shockingly erased Wendell Williams from the Assembly. These victories were a product of people going out to vote against someone, not for the person whose name they pressed in the voting booth. This is especially true in legislative districts, where most people can't name their assemblyman or senator.
Anger is a powerful motivator, much more powerful in politics than love for a candidate. It is that truism that gives the Democrats hope in the presidential race and should worry Democrats in the Legislature as they express confidence that the tax issue will remain relatively somnolent.
The third party is the Gaming Party: In Nevada there is the Anointment Party and then there are the minor parties, Democrats and Republicans, and then there are the really, really minor parties, the Libertarians, Independent American and so on.
Never has this been shown to be more true than in the O'Connell-Heck race, where the Strip funded a third-party group risibly dubbed Citizens for Fair Taxation. Although it was the Heck campaign that first raised O'Connell's support of a huge tax increase, those citizens pushed it with a $200,000 campaign funded by Mandalay Resort Group, Station Casinos, MGM Mirage and Caesars Entertainment.
It's unfair to Heck to say he was a gaming puppet. It was after he got into the race and showed that he could walk and chew gum in that district that the gamers decided to take their shot at removing O'Connell. And in so doing, they accomplished two distinct things.
First, they did what they were unable to do during Session '03 -- strike fear into the political system. Others who opposed their gross receipts-based tax package last year now know what they could face -- state Sen. Mike Schneider should be the first to worry.
Second, the industry knew that by excising O'Connell, the power of her two acolytes, Barbara Cegavske and Sandra Tiffany, will wither. As one non-gaming insider put it, "They killed the queen bee. She was a fine lady, but now we get to watch the hive just die."
Much more than Beers' victory -- he will not immediately align himself with Cegavske and Tiffany -- the O'Connell loss will have the single greatest impact on the 2005 legislative session of any race.
An attack unanswered, no matter how loony, is an attack accepted: What do Ann O'Connell and John Kerry have in common? No, not that they both love taxes, folks. Both dithered and didn't immediately respond to attacks that they couldn't believe would settle in and paid a heavy price.
Kerry has fallen behind because of the GOP's brazen attack on what was perceived as his greatest strength -- his Vietnam resume. And O'Connell lost because her persona as the most anti-tax legislator in history was undermined by her opponents. Neither Kerry nor O'Connell -- like so many before them -- moved with alacrity to head off an issue they couldn't believe would have an impact. One paid the stiffest price; the other is now in trouble.
And a few one-liners: Justice is blind and has a feminine side -- from Lori Lipman Brown, a teacher who doesn't practice law, to Dianne Steel, not the most respected judge, to just being a woman in a judicial race all but guarantees a certain number of votes.
If you have a choice in a small political subdivision between the Culinary Union and anyone else, always take the Culinary Union. Even the deep pockets of the Fertitta family and the work of Ferrence could not stop Culinary-sponsored candidate Steven Horsford from winning a smashing victory to replace state Sen. Joe Neal.
If I were state Supreme Court contender John Mason, who spent $700,000 to barely get into a runoff, I might consider malpractice charges against my consultants, who surely are spinning their candidate that without all that expense he actually would not have made it into the general election -- and the opportunity to spend more money.
And speaking of money in that race, Lipman Brown ran as a protest against money in the system and how paramount it is. Her case was essentially not made because she, ironically, almost beat the moneyed Mason. Now what?
Four questions for the general:
Can two Republican County Commission candidates buck demographic trends? In Mary Kincaid-Chauncey's district, Democrats outnumber Republicans by 9,000 voters. In Lynette Boggs McDonald's district, there are 8,000 more Democrats. So how can North Las Vegas Councilwoman Shari Buck and Boggs McDonald possibly win?
Tom Collins' impressive Democratic primary win in the Kincaid-Chauncey seat bodes well for the general. But Buck will be able to raise money and Collins has to defend a legislative record that includes the largest tax increase in history. Buck tried to pound Collins in the primary under the well-known political theory that you would rather face the Democrat with the indictment (Kincaid-Chauncey) than the one without. But she has a chance against Collins, according to most polls, which show the race as a dead heat.
The dynamic in the other race is much different. Goldwater has no money compared to Boggs McDonald -- she has about a 7-to-1 advantage right now. Even though she has never been elected in the district, Boggs McDonald is as tough and ruthless as anyone I know in politics and will not be afraid to use any of Goldwater's baggage, including his legislative record and anything else that is contained in her sheaf of opposition research. Goldwater has the populist issue -- no more growth -- and a passel of experienced consultants. But if he doesn't get enough money, they won't have the tools they need.
Do the Republicans have any chance to take the Assembly? They obviously think so. That's why you saw the immediate, post-primary unveiling of their Contract with Nevada, which shockingly says "no new taxes" and a raft of conservative and vote-getting planks -- keep our doctors here, cut back state spending and make schools perform.
The advantage, though, remains in Democratic hands, despite their monolithic support of the tax increase. Redistricting in 2001 created some formidable advantages and voter registration has been trending their way, too. The races that will determine control boil down to a few -- remember all the GOP has to do is change three seats -- but they have no chance unless they can hold a couple of their own:
Republican Valerie Weber, whose district has gone from Republican to Democratic in registration, faces well-funded accountant Kirk Kaplan. The Democrats are very high on Susan Gerhardt, who faces Anthony Bandiero, who scored an impressive primary victory in the race for Josh Griffin's Assembly seat. The GOP must to hold those two to have any chance to take control.
The real issue for the Republicans is whether they will they use the tax issue effectively and will people respond to it? That is the GOP's only chance, along with the hope that the presidential race does not motivate too many Democrats to vote in the key districts. Which brings me to ...
Can TomGallagherJohnKerry win in Nevada?
The fortunes of the Democratic contender for Jon Porter's congressional seat are inextricably linked to the White House nominee's here. If Kerry does not run strongly here and in the district, Gallagher has almost no chance. He appears to be competitive now, but let's see what happens in the next few weeks.
Gallagher also will have to dig into his own pocket for a another few hundred thousand and hope that partisan fires can be fueled by his campaign portraying Porter as a GOP extremist. His problem is that Porter does not seem to be a fire-breathing Tom DeLay type and he has plenty of money to defend himself and define Gallagher.
What else is worth watching? Both of the state Supreme Court races are, although Jim Hardesty remains a huge favorite because of his extra-Clark County backing, his superior qualifications and money. It will be interesting to see if Mason will be undaunted by his poor showing in the primary and will dig into his own pockets and those of his California friends to mount a real general election effort.
The state Senate will remain in GOP hands, but the Democrats have an excellent chance to pick up Ray Shaffer's seat, especially now that he is the only Shaffer left in the race. Ex-Assemblyman John Lee, a Democrat, has the work ethic and campaign organization to do it. A problem for Minority Leader Dina Titus, D-Las Vegas, is holding onto the seat of the man she despises most in Carson City -- Democrat Mike Schneider. Republican Danny Tarkanian will get gaming money and be well-funded, so even Democrats who don't like Schneider will have to come to his defense.
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