Tuesday, Sept. 7, 2004 | 10:33 a.m.
For businesses looking to launch a television ad campaign, better hold off until Nov. 3.
Until then, media and advertising executives expect the airwaves will be increasingly crowded with political advertising.
"I would probably wait," said Joe Stella, media director for Brown & Partners Advertising.
Dale Erquiaga, vice president for brand services for R&R Advertising, agreed.
"That might be the best strategy (for some businesses), I think, for the next few months," he said. Both said that they would tend to guide those customers to other mediums during the campaign, such as newspapers, radio or cable television.
While the crowded field won't turn back major advertisers such as casinos or car dealers, it creates a logjam that drives up prices for companies with smaller advertising budgets. Some media executives also argue that viewers also tend to tune out after weeks of being inundated with political pitches.
"(Political advertising) chews up the available airtime on (broadcast) television and, in turn, drives up the price," Erquiaga said.
Making that issue worse, stations are bound by campaign rules mandating that political candidates have access to the lowest going rate for space. That means that many of the best deals usually available to advertisers evaporate. In addition, organizations such as the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth attacking Democrat John Kerry and Moveon.org attacking President Bush are willing to pay a premium to guarantee the best possible time slots.
"Things can be pre-empted due to political advertising," Stella said. "It takes a lot of planning (during election season). Relationships with station representatives are also very important, having someone that will tell you what their inventories really look like, what are the chances of running in the time slots I'm interested in."
The nonprofit industry organization Television Bureau of Advertising said that during the 2000 presidential election year, total political advertising -- including local, state and national campaigns -- reached more than $606 million for broadcast television alone.
By way of comparison, in 2003, an off-election year with only a few local and county elections, political advertising levels dropped to less than $100 million, TVB statistics said.
Historically, the presidential-year network advertising has exceeded the previous congressional election spending. In 2002 that total hit $698 million.
The research group TNS Media Intelligence/CMR in June predicted that overall political advertising expenditures for the current campaign season would hit $1.5 billion. That total would include all media outlets, including network television, radio, Internet, outdoor advertising, newspapers and magazines.
That total includes $1.3 billion for elections and another $200 million on issue-related advertising, a TNS report said.
While Las Vegas media outlets declined to release local numbers, the presidential campaign season was described as a clear revenue boost.
The stakes were raised further in Nevada since being named a "battleground" state in the presidential race. John Dalrymple, vice president and general manager of Cox Media Las Vegas, said as much as $12 million in national campaign money is expected to be spent in Las Vegas between mid-September and election day.
Last week the Kerry campaign announced that it will place a $45 million advertising buy in 20 battleground states, including Nevada, for the final eight weeks prior to Election Day.
That influx is expected to lock up much of the inventory at local broadcast stations during that time.
The prediction fits with the trends seen by Ed Atorino, a media industry analyst for Fulcrum Global Partners.
"(Being a battleground state) means millions of dollars," said Ed Atorino, a media industry analyst with Fulcrum Global Partners.
While Nevada enjoys an advertising boom, money is being siphoned away from states such as Texas, where President Bush expects an easy victory. Atorino said that Belo Corp., which owns key television stations in Dallas and Houston as well as the Dallas Morning News newspaper, has indicated that revenue will be lower than 2000 because presidential campaigns are not investing in that state.
Back in Nevada, the news is good, said Gene Greenberg, station manager for KVBC-TV Channel 3, the Las Vegas NBC affiliate.
"Being a battleground state has made a big difference in the presidential stakes," he said, adding that such a presidential windfall is not business as usual in Nevada, which as so few electoral votes.
"There were years where in the presidential race we got nothing (in terms of advertising) or just a token. The percentage increase this year is large," Greenberg said. "After the last presidential campaign, certainly we know every electoral vote counts."
While broadcast stations are selling out, cable has become an option for state and local races.
"We have had quite a bit of that money come our way," said Dalrymple. "Many local and state races may not get the opportunity to be on broadcast stations."
With prices soaring and airtime being chewed up quickly, Darwin Paustian, general manager of KNUU-AM, said radio is an economical alternative.
"We are having a very good year," he said. "We are outpacing the 2000 election cycle right now as far as booked business for the primary, and we are already getting inquiries for the general election."
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