Columnist Jeff Haney: Juicy matchups should generate big action on baseball

Wednesday, Oct. 6, 2004 | 10:07 a.m.

Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at (702) 259-4041 or haney@lasvegassun.com.

The Houston Astros, considered a lost cause three-quarters of the way through the regular season, enter the wild-card playoffs as a favorite against the Atlanta Braves, the perennial division champions.

The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees could meet to determine which team goes to the World Series -- if they don't get tripped up as favorites in the opening round.

And the St. Louis Cardinals, who coasted to the finish line with a big lead in the National League Central standings, are now favored to win the World Series, having snagged that honor from the Yanks, who held it virtually all year.

Those appealing storylines are expected to draw plenty of gamblers to the betting windows for baseball's playoffs, said Jeff Sherman, assistant manager of the Las Vegas Hilton race and sports book.

"From a betting standpoint these are all great matchups," Sherman said. "We're expecting a really good handle, mostly because there are so many bettable matchups."

Before Tuesday's action, the Cardinals were minus 220 favorites in their series against the Los Angeles Dodgers (bettors must lay $2.20 for each $1 they're trying to win); the Red Sox were minus 180 to eliminate the Anaheim Angels; and the Yankees were minus 170 against the Twins.

Adjusted prices on the three series that began Tuesday, as well as adjusted World Series odds, were expected to be posted today at major Las Vegas sports books.

The Astros are minus 135 favorites in their series against the Braves, which was scheduled to begin this afternoon. Even after they squeaked into the playoffs, clinching a wild-card spot on the final day of the season, it was really no surprise the Astros were installed as a favorite in the opening series, Sherman said.

"When you consider Roger Clemens will be favored in Game 1, and then they send out Roy Oswalt in Game 2, it makes a lot sense," Sherman said of Houston's 1-2 right-handed punch. "It's a similar situation with Red Sox, with (Curt) Schilling and (Pedro) Martinez: Anytime you have two horses going for you when you're looking at winning just three out of five games, that's going to be reflected in the series price."

Traditionally, the Yankees have always been the biggest "public" team in baseball betting, meaning they attract an inordinate amount of money from recreational gamblers, often enough to skew the betting line in their games. That's probably still the case, Sherman said, though the distinction is not as clear as it once was.

In fact, in Tuesday night's 2-0 loss to Johan Santana and the Twins, the Yankees entered the game as home underdogs, an extremely rare occurrence. New York was a home 'dog just a small handful of times all season.

"The Yankees are not as public as they used to be," Sherman said. "The Red Sox draw a ton of action now, too. And the Cardinals have been attracting money from bettors throughout the season. ... Overall, the handle on the playoffs should definitely exceed previous years."

Cal-USC

When top-ranked Southern Cal hosts No. 7 California before a sellout crowd of 92,000 at the Los Angeles Coliseum on Saturday, it will be the most anticipated Pac-10 game of the season and one of the biggest college football games of the year.

Despite the fact Cal enters the game as the highest-scoring team in the nation (48.7 points per game), Las Vegas sports handicapper Patrick Bartucci is recommending a play on USC minus 7 points in the contest.

The Trojans are coming off a bye week, Bartucci noted, and will play knowing the team's only loss in its past 25 games came against Cal last September, 34-31 in triple-overtime at Berkeley.

"Rarely do you see Berkeley come down to Southern California with so much fanfare and with so much firepower," said Bartucci, online at patricksfreepress.com. "But in the revenge situation, and at home, I like the Trojans minus 7."

Bartucci said he saw a very early opening line of USC minus 11 points, although the number was quickly bet down to 7 1/2 at most sports books. A solid 7 is now available at several major Las Vegas casinos. On Tuesday, the Mirage had it minus 7, minus 105 (lay $1.05 for each $1 you're trying to win), indicating bettors were taking Cal plus 7.

"I actually thought it could open as high as 14 before dropping," Bartucci said. "Once it got as low as 7, I liked the Trojans' side."

Michelin tournament

Las Vegas sports book managers are among those applauding the decision to adjust the length of the local PGA tour stop from five days to four.

"In previous years the turnout among bettors was average to below average because it was a five-day event," said the Hilton's Sherman. "We expect the four-day format will increase the handle significantly."

Phil Mickelson opened a 6-1 favorite to win this week's Michelin Championship, which runs Thursday through Sunday at TPC at Summerlin, TPC at the Canyons and Bear's Best.

Jim Furyk was listed as a 10-1 second choice on the Hilton's board.

"Both are staples in this tournament," Sherman said. "Both always play well in desert golf."

Defending champion Stuart Appleby was listed at 15-1 to win the event, which Sherman pointed out is a shorter price than usual for him. Appleby was runner-up in Las Vegas in 2002.

"Usually you'll see Appleby in the range of 30-1 to 50-1 to win a tournament," Sherman said. "The lower price reflects how well he's expected to play here. ... I think those three guys are clearly above the rest."

Stardust contest

Mike Orkin, a statistics professor at California State University at Hayward, defeated author and handicapper Kevin O'Neill this past weekend to advance to the second round of the Stardust Invitational football handicapping tournament.

Orkin went 5-1-1 against the spread in his seven selections, while O'Neill ("Real World Sports Betting") finished 4-3.

Both men connected on their best bet, Orkin with the Atlanta Falcons plus 3 1/2 points against the Carolina Panthers and O'Neill with Alabama-Birmingham plus 1 1/2 against Cincinnati.

Overall, best bets in the contest are 7-1 against the spread this year, according to Stardust sports book director Bob Scucci.

At 9 p.m. Friday at the Stardust, poker expert Brent Carter meets professional handicapper Dave Malinsky. The contest, in its 10th year, features 16 entrants competing in a single-elimination tournament for a $10,000 prize.

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