Friday, Oct. 1, 2004 | 6:26 a.m.
WEEKEND EDITION
October 2 - 3, 2004
Nevadans who are very likely to vote in the Nov. 2 general election strongly favor Democratic presidential challenger John Kerry over Republican President Bush on the environment and health care.
Those Nevadans also narrowly favor Kerry, a Massachusetts senator, on creating jobs and improving the economy.
But on national issues there is a sharp difference of opinion among Nevadans who identify themselves as Republicans or Democrats when it comes to prioritizing those issues.
Republicans rank protecting the United States from terrorism as by far the highest priority issue for the next president, whereas Democrats place resolving the war in Iraq and domestic issues such as health care and job creation ahead of fighting terrorism.
Likely voters also say that Republicans, by a slim margin, better represent their needs in Washington than do Democrats.
These are among the highlights of a statewide Las Vegas Sun/KLAS TV Channel 8/ KNPR Nevada Public Radio poll of 600 very likely voters conducted Sept. 20 through Sept. 28 by Washington-based polling firm Belden Russonello & Stewart.
Of those polled, 40 percent identified themselves as Republicans, 36 percent as Democrats and 16 percent as independents.
Presidential race
The poll asked likely Nevada voters to rank Kerry versus Bush on five major issues.
As reported Thursday, Bush has substantial statewide leads over Kerry among likely voters when it comes to protecting the United States from terrorism, 60-33, and resolving the war in Iraq, 52-42. Those numbers were released prior to Thursday night's first presidential debate on foreign policy, including Iraq.
"The debate will most likely not immediately change the minds of Nevada voters," Kate Stewart, a partner in the polling firm, said. "The immediate effect will be to reinforce voters' preferences rather than change them."
Where Kerry can find hope in Nevada is on protecting the environment, improving the health care system and creating jobs/improving the economy. He leads Bush in all of those issues.
"What the voters are saying is that on domestic issues they have more confidence in Kerry," Stewart said.
Kerry's greatest advantage over Bush, 59-31, is on the environment. This advantage cuts across gender, age groups and locale, as well as voters who identified themselves as independent and those who are undecided on the presidential race. It is the only issue where even rural voters, who strongly favor Bush in all other areas, believe Kerry is the better candidate.
"Certainly Yucca Mountain is the biggest environmental issue in the state and Kerry has promised to kill Yucca Mountain in his first day in office," Jon Summers, Nevada State Democratic Party spokesman, said. "Democrats have a better record of protecting the environment than Republicans do."
UNLV political science professor David Damore said, though, that environmental issues are tough for Democrats to pursue because they rely on big business donations as do Republicans, and big business generally fights environmental reform.
"The system is set up so business has extra influence, and the Democrats realize it," Damore said. "If they go too hard on environmental issues, those donors won't give to them."
Bush's only advantage on the environment is among conservatives, 47-41, but Kerry more than makes up for that with support of 82-11 from liberals and 67-23 from moderates.
"This reflects the fact that Bush really doesn't talk about the environment, and when he does he gets into disputes about global warming and his links to big oil, which is not environmentally friendly," Eric Herzik, a UNR political science professor, said.
Chris Carr, acting executive director of the Nevada Republican Party, expressed surprise over the margin of support for Kerry on the environment.
"Bush has a good record on the environment, especially in dealing with national recreation areas and parks," Carr said.
Kerry also fares well on health care, beating Bush by a comfortable 51-39 margin. Again, Kerry's advantage on this issue cuts across gender and age groups. He also is favored heavily on health care in Clark and Washoe counties and among voters who identified themselves as independent or undecided on the presidential contest.
His strength on this issue is particularly high among women, 54-36, and moderates, 61-28.
Summers said one reason Kerry scores well on health care in Nevada is that the number of uninsured residents in the state has increased by more than 82,000 to 426,000 under the Bush administration.
"Kerry has promised people the same access to health care than members of Congress have," Summers said.
Herzik, in fact, said he believes Kerry has missed a golden opportunity by failing to go after Bush on health care in this state.
"Traditionally health care is an issue where Democrats get better scores than Republicans," Herzik said. "This is an issue Kerry should have hammered from day one. If I'm running Kerry's campaign, I'm in Clark County talking to seniors about high drug prices. This is an issue the Democrats should have hit early and hard, but they didn't."
Health care is an issue where Republicans need to do a better job of promoting what they have done on prescription drugs for seniors, Carr said.
The narrowest polling difference on issues between Kerry and Bush is on creating jobs and improving the economy, with Kerry holding a 48-45 edge. The gender gap is particularly pronounced on this issue, with women favoring Kerry 53-38 and men siding with Bush 52-43.
"Men focus on job creation and Republicans talk about cutting taxes to create jobs," Herzik said. Democrats play to women, he said, by "talking about wages and protecting existing jobs."
Kerry holds a 49-43 edge on this issue among likely voters aged 40 to 59, but has only a 47-46 lead among voters aged 18 to 39 and aged 60 and older. The Democrat has a more comfortable lead among those who identify themselves as independents, 51-40, undecided on the presidential race, 36-25, and moderates, 57-34.
Kerry also leads on jobs and the economy in Clark and Washoe counties by margins of 52-40 and 51-45 respectively, but Bush holds a large advantage in the rural counties, 65-26.
"The only one who has a proven record creating jobs is the president," Carr said. "I don't think there is one issue you can say John Kerry has championed in the Senate."
But Summers referred to Bush as "the first president since Herbert Hoover to lose jobs."
Rating the issues
Likely voters were asked to rank specific national issues from extremely high priority down to very low priority.
Protecting the United States from terrorism emerged as the highest priority issue overall, ranked as an extremely high priority by 56 percent of likely voters statewide.
That issue was followed by resolving the war in Iraq (51 percent), creating jobs and improving the economy (43 percent), improving health care (42 percent), improving public education (38 percent), protecting Social Security (36 percent), promoting moral values (28 percent), reducing the federal budget deficit (27 percent), protecting the environment (26 percent), fighting crime (22 percent) and cutting taxes (20 percent).
Among likely voters who identified themselves as Republicans, 69 percent rated fighting terrorism as an extremely high priority, far ahead of resolving the war in Iraq (45 percent), promoting moral values (35 percent), improving public education (31 percent) and creating jobs and improving the economy (30 percent).
Among likely voters who identified themselves as Democrats, 57 percent rated Iraq as an extremely high priority (57 percent), followed by improving health care (56 percent), creating jobs and improving the economy (55 percent), protecting Social Security (49 percent) and fighting terrorism (47 percent).
"This reflects the fact that the two parties are almost talking different languages about what is important to America," Herzik said. "This also explains why the race between Bush and Kerry is so close."
Of those who plan to vote for Bush, 71 percent believe fighting terrorism is an extremely high priority, but only 42 percent of Kerry's likely supporters feel the same. Bush supporters also place higher priority on promoting moral values (36-20).
Conversely, Kerry supporters place higher importance on improving health care (57 percent to 26 percent), creating jobs and improving the economy (55-28) and resolving the war in Iraq (58-45).
One reason Democrats differ sharply from Republicans on the importance they place on health care is that Democrats view health care benefits as being unevenly distributed based on a person's income, Damore said.
But he said he was surprised that fighting terrorism ranked only fifth among Democrats' priorities.
"This may reflect the fact that Democrats believe there is only so much that can be done on that front," Damore said. "Fighting terrorism is all that Bush talks about. He's made the case that Iraq is part of the war on terrorism."
The poll numbers bear this out, suggesting that Republicans are far more focused on a single issue -- fighting terrorism -- than are Democrats.
Stewart has a theory on why Republicans have been more eager to embrace the war on terrorism as their top issue.
Republicans, she said, tend to support expanded government authority on security issues as reflected in the Patriot Act, which was aimed at broadening the government's ability to pursue terrorists. Democrats, she said, are quicker to question authority when it comes to limits on civil liberties.
"Democrats will say they want to be safe but question why the government wants more power," Stewart said.
Although voters who identify themselves as independent say they are better served by Republicans in Washington, the priorities they place on issues are more in line with Democrats. The independents rate Iraq at the top of their list (53 percent), slightly ahead of fighting terrorism and jobs/ economy (both 52 percent) and improving health care (50 percent).
"Undecided and independent voters in Nevada have told us they place high priorities on health care, jobs and education," Stewart said. "This means that the upcoming debates on domestic issues will probably have more of an impact on these voters and the overall vote in Nevada."
The poll exposed another difference between the sexes, with women ranking health care second (51 percent) behind fighting terrorism (55 percent), while men ranked health care fifth (34 percent) behind fighting terrorism (57 percent), Iraq (52 percent), jobs/economy (43 percent) and improving public education (37 percent).
"Traditionally when you look at women, they tend to vote on health care, jobs and the economy," Stewart said. "Health care is something they want the president to address, and this is also reflected in national polls."
And there are also differences based on age, with likely voters aged 18 to 39 placing the most emphasis on fighting terrorism (60 percent), followed by improving public education (51 percent), Iraq and jobs/economy (both 48 percent).
Voters ages 40 to 59 ranked Iraq on top (52 percent), followed by fighting terrorism (51 percent) and improving health care (45 percent). Voters 60 and older, like the youngest voters, believe fighting terrorism is the highest priority (58 percent), but rank Iraq second (56 percent), followed by protecting Social Security (48 percent).
"Just as the country is divided on a lot of different issues, this poll shows that Nevada's likely voters are divided as well," Stewart said. "That's why Nevada is very much a battleground state."
Party preference
When asked which party better represents their interests in Washington, very likely voters chose Republicans by 47 percent to 42 percent for Democrats, mirroring the statewide 47-42 edge Bush has over Kerry, according to a portion of the poll that was released Thursday. The margin of error in the poll is 4 percentage points.
This, of course, was accepted as good news by Carr, who said it reflected well on state GOP congressional delegates Sen. John Ensign and Reps. Jim Gibbons and Jon Porter as well as on Bush.
"People respect the fact that the president says what he means and means what he says," Carr said. "We see an economy that is growing and I think this reflects the fact that the president is doing a good job."
Summers, the Democratic Party spokesman, was less impressed with the results of the party preference question.
"It's such a broad question when you ask which party better represents them in Washington because it's hard to know what they're thinking," Summers said. "Under this administration we see an increase in the number of people who don't have health care, and we've seen a loss of 2 million jobs in the United States."
There is a clear gender gap that is reflected in the party preference question, with men opting for the Republican Party by a margin of 51-36 and women favoring the Democratic Party 47-42.
"The Republican Party is more about male-oriented issues like defense and national security," Damore said. "The Democratic Party is more concerned about health care and education and quality of life, things that concern women."
Professor Herzik, who also serves as UNR's interim dean of the College of Liberal Arts, said the political gender gap dates back to Ronald Reagan's presidency in the early 1980s, when white Southern males bolted the Democratic Party and became Republicans.
"The Democrats further emphasized issues that applied to women and minorities and that led to more men leaving the party," Herzik said. "Men have been leaning more Republican over time."
And the fact that Republicans command more support from men in Nevada than Democrats do from women is "generally good news for Republicans and George Bush," Herzik said.
Republicans enjoy the edge among all age brackets, led by a 49-41 advantage over Democrats among likely voters aged 18 to 39. Democrats are the preferred choice in Clark County by a narrow 45-42 margin, but Republicans are favored by a wide margin in Nevada's 15 rural counties, 65-27, and in Washoe County, 47-43.
Likely voters who identified themselves as independent think Republicans better meet their needs in Washington by a 41-29 margin. Conversely, individuals who are undecided on the presidential race prefer Democrats by 39-27.
The advantage for the Republican Party in Nevada -- and by extension Bush -- is that 16 percent of likely voters consider themselves as independent whereas undecided voters make up only 7 percent of the likely voters.
"Among independent voters there tends to be more men than women whereas among undecided voters there tends to be more women than men," pollster Stewart said.
Nevada moderates favor Democrats 49-35, but that 35 percent is enough to tilt the state in the GOP's favor. That's because likely voters who identified themselves as conservatives outnumber liberals by almost 2-to-1 statewide, and conservatives favor the Republicans in Washington by a 74-18 margin.
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