Tuesday, Sept. 30, 2003 | 9:18 a.m.
As long as Greg Maddux outwits Derek Jeter, we are confident about our season-long prediction that the Atlanta Braves will win their second World Series championship in nine years.
The Braves have advanced to baseball's premier stage five times since 1991, and the Yankees have been to five World Series since '96. New York defeated Atlanta for the crown in '96 and '99.
For Atlanta, the third time against New York should be charming.
A thorn could be Jeter, who is 8-for-12 lifetime against Maddux, 37, a graduate of Valley High.
Maddux will be challenged from the start, since he is scheduled to throw against Kerry Wood of the Cubs on Friday night at Wrigley Field. Maddux called that dreamy field home from 1986-92, so he knows what's waiting for him.
Braves manager Bobby Cox knew what he was doing when he made Maddux his Game 3 starter. Maddux is 11-3 -- with a 2.38 ERA, three complete games and a shutout -- in 20 career starts against the Cubs.
Maddux beat Chicago this season by allowing only two earned runs over seven innings, and a similar performance might be required come Friday.
We believe Maddux and some other Atlanta veterans will make the most of what might be their last stint together in Braves uniforms.
Maddux, Gary Sheffield, Javy Lopez and Vinny Castilla are all free agents at the end of the season. The Braves have above-average starters, a stellar closer in John Smoltz and the best hitters in the National League.
Since returning two weekends ago from his rest period, Smoltz had retired seven in a row, including whiffing the Expos' side last Tuesday for his 45th save.
He blew his fourth save opportunity Saturday, though, in Philadelphia, by allowing more than one earned run in an inning for the first time this season. It shot his ERA from 0.85 to 1.12.
Still, Braves pitching coach Leo Mazzone said Smoltz's splitter is as nasty as ever, and Smoltz blamed the Veterans Stadium blow-up on the extreme difference between the heights of the mounds in the bullpen and on the field.
"The most brutal differential maybe in the history of the game," Smoltz told MLB.com.
At the plate, Atlanta hit a league-best .284 with an NL-high 235 home runs. Lopez hit 43 homers, 42 as a catcher to set a single-season record for the position.
We are banking on Sheffield. At 34, he set career figures with 190 hits and 126 runs, and he matched his best batting average, of .330, that he established for San Diego in 1992.
He finished fifth in slugging percentage, at .604, to Barry Bonds of San Francisco. And for the 11th consecutive season, he had more walks than strikeouts.
We predict a breakout playoff performance by Sheffield, similar to what Bonds pulled off last year. Before 2002, Bonds hit .196 in 27 postseason games. Then he blasted off, hitting .356 -- with eight homers and 16 RBIs -- last October.
The Giants rode those coattails to the brink of their own World Series title, then they folded late in Game 6. The Angels kept rolling to a Game 7 victory and the championship.
Sheffield has hit .258 (17-for-66) in the playoffs, with four homers and eight RBIs.
In his career, Sheffield has hit .317 against the Cubs, with 18 home runs and 58 RBIs. A six-time All-Star, he has twice as many walks to strikeouts (73 to 35), and he's 16-for-20 stealing against Chicago catchers.
Atlanta is 4-2 against the Cubs this season. Maddux beat Chicago twice, in a pair of games in which the Braves totaled 21 runs, and Atlanta defeated Cubs ace Mark Prior, on July 11, at Wrigley.
Sheffield is 0-for-5 lifetime against Prior and Wood, combined, but with fall in the air and a huge spotlight, Sheffield is our choice for October's MVP.
Unless that certain national magazine jinxes our hero with a cover in the next two or three weeks, nothing else should get in his way.
How the playoffs look from here:
AL: Yankees over Twins, Red Sox over A's. ALCS: Yankees over Red Sox. NL: Braves over Cubs, Giants over Marlins. NLCS: Braves over Giants. World Series: Braves over Yankees.
And, without further delay, some predictions from a choice quartet of locals who just might know a bit more about the game:
AL: Yankees over Twins, A's over Red Sox. ALCS: Yankees over A's. NL: Cubs over Braves, Giants over Marlins. NLCS: Giants over Cubs. World Series: Yankees over Giants.
"Why? 'Cause they're the Yankees. They still won 101 games, so they're not that bad. There's just something about the Yankees that makes them special. If the Giants had (closer Robb) Nen ... I think it depends on (closer Tim) Worrell. He's just not the same.
"You have to have a guy who comes in and slams the door shut, and that will be (the Giants') Achilles.' "
AL: Yankees over Twins, Red Sox over A's. ALCS: Red Sox over Yankees. NL: Braves over Cubs, Giants over Marlins. NLCS: Braves over Giants. World Series: Red Sox over Braves.
"Chemistry, No. 1. It seems like they have what ... like the Angels last season ... great chemistry. Offensively, they're just murder, and they're on a roll. Everyone thought they were out of it a month ago, then (David) Ortiz caught fire and threw them on his back.
"If they can score, they'll win."
He served as an honorary pallbearer at the funeral of legendary St. Louis broadcaster Jack Buck in June 2002.
AL: Yankees over Twins, Red Sox over A's. ALCS: Yankees over Red Sox. NL: Braves over Cubs, Giants over Marlins. NLCS: Braves over Giants. World Series: Yankees over Braves
"That's just the type of thing the Yankees do. This year, everyone said they (endured) so much adversity, and they still won more than 100 games. All that turmoil and (owner George) Steinbrenner saying that crazy stuff, and they still win 100.
"They have pretty good answers to a lot of stuff."
AL: Yankees over Twins, A's over Red Sox. ALCS: Yankees over A's. NL: Braves over Cubs, Giants over Marlins. NLCS: Braves over Giants. World Series: Yankees over Braves.
"The Yankees are really, really tough to beat when you get to postseason play. I just think they're more well-rounded, and I think their bullpen gives them the edge over Atlanta, regardless of whether John Smoltz is healthy or not.
"The Yankees also have the experience of not just being there, but being there and winning."
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