Friday, Oct. 31, 2003 | 10:12 a.m.
5 p.m. PST, University Stadium TV: KLAS (Ch. 8) Radio: KBAD-AM (920)
WHEN UNLV HAS THE BALL
UNLV run offense vs. New Mexico run defense
The Lobos rank sixth nationally in rush defense allowing just 74.9 yards per game. Only seven players have rushed for over 100 yards against New Mexico since the 2000 season, a span of 45 games. The Lobos have allowed just four rushing touchdowns this season and an average of 2.5 yards per rush. Senior linebacker Billy Strother leads the way with 63 tackles and 2.5 sacks. UNLV is coming off a game that it managed just 110 yards rushing on 44 attempts but senior tailback Larry Croom had his best outing since suffering a thigh muscle strain at Kansas with 97 yards on 25 carries. The Rebels managed just 102 yards rushing against the Lobos in a 25-16 loss last year and that was with an excellent scrambling quarterback in Jason Thomas at the helm. Unless they can find a way to break a couple of long gainers, the Rebels will be hard-pressed to match last year's total.
Edge: New Mexico.
UNLV pass offense vs. New Mexico pass defense
UNLV coach John Robinson talked this week of opening things up more on offense this week especially in the passing game. The timing for such a move would appear to be right. New Mexico ranks 110th out of 117 Division I-A teams in pass defense allowing 281.9 yards per game through the air. The key for the Rebels will be whether the offensive line can give quarterback Kurt Nantkes time to throw. The Lobos' stunting, blitz-from-all-angles 3-3-5 defense can cause nightmares for offensive lines as evidenced by the fact New Mexico has 23 quarterback sacks this year, including a Mountain West Conference-leading 5.0 by senior defensive end Daniel Kegler. Nantkes has struggled in the last three games for the Rebels, completing just 36 of 86 passes for 456 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Worse yet, he has fumbled away four routine center exchanges in the last two games.
Edge: New Mexico.
WHEN NEW MEXICO HAS THE BALL
New Mexico run offense vs. UNLV run defense
The Lobos have an NFL-size offensive line led by senior offensive tackle Jason Lenzmeier (6-5, 320), who became the first offensive lineman in Mountain West Conference history to earn MWC offensive player of the week honors on Monday after New Mexico ran over a good Utah defense for 407 yards. The Lobos nearly had three 100-yard rushers in that game. Sophomore tailback DonTrell Moore leads the MWC with 13 rushing touchdowns and is 34th nationally in rushing with an average of 90.6 yards per game. Oklahoma State-transfer D.D. Cox also is having a good season with 484 yards rushing on just 90 carries (5.4 average per carry) and six more touchdowns. UNLV's rush defense, led by junior linebackers Adam Seward and Ryan Claridge, has allowed an average of just 138.4 yards per game against some pretty good run offenses (Air Force, Wisconsin, Toledo, Utah). But this may be their toughest test yet.
Edge: New Mexico.
New Mexico pass offense vs. UNLV pass defense
Like his counterpart at UNLV, Kurt Nantkes, Lobo quarterback Casey Kelly also has caught his share of criticism from the media this year and looked like he might even get benched earlier in the season. However, New Mexico coach Rocky Long continues to stick with his senior even though he has thrown almost as many interceptions (six) as touchdown passes (seven). UNLV's pass efficiency defense is ranked a solid 45th nationally. The Rebels, led by reigning Mountain West Conference defensive player of the year Jamaal Brimmer at safety and much improved junior corner Ruschard Dodd-Masters, have intercepted 10 passes while allowing just 10 touchdown passes and played well for most of the game last week before BYU picked it apart on its final game-tying drive at the end of regulation. Still, the Rebels have more than held up against better passing teams like Hawaii and Toledo.
Edge: UNLV.
SPECIAL TEAMS
UNLV has a big edge in the punting game with senior Gary Cook who is averaging 42.8 yards on his 60 punts and has done a good job most of the season pinning opposing teams inside the 20. New Mexico's Tyler Gaus is last in the MWC with a 40.6 average but had two punts downed inside the five-yard line last week. The Lobos get the edge in placekicking with junior Wes Junker having connected on 10 of 11 field goal tries including his last 10 in a row. Both teams have struggled in the return game although UNLV has been just plain dreadful in kickoff returns with a 12.8 average. Both teams have struggled in kickoff coverage this season allowing 23.4 yards per return.
Edge: Even.
INTANGIBLES
The Lobos have been strong finishers under Rocky Long, going 4-1 to end both the 2001 and 2002 seasons with both losses to Colorado State. New Mexico has also won eight of its last 10 games at University Stadium including a 27-17 victory over the Rebels in 2001. The Lobos biggest problem could be taking the Rebels seriously. New Mexico is coming off its first win over a ranked opponent in the Rocky Long era. And next up is a potential conference title showdown with Colorado State. Still, UNLV comes limping to town with a three-game losing streak and needs to prove that it hasn't thrown in the towel yet.
Edge: New Mexico.
COACHING
New Mexico has improved its record each year under Rocky Long and is known for strong finishes. UNLV has hit a major pothole after an impressive 4-1 start and questions are starting to arise about just how good a couple of head coach John Robinson's offensive assistants are, especially quarterback coach Vince Alcalde and wide receiver/ kickoff return coach Garrick McGee. Even Robinson, who seemed to take a much more proactive role in practice this week, seems to be questioning his team's offensive play-calling these days.
Edge: New Mexico.
KEYS TO VICTORY
To win, UNLV must ...
1. Stop the run. The Lobos and their huge offensive line simply wore down Utah in the second half of last week's 47-35 victory en route to 407 yards rushing and could very well do the same to Rebels if they get on track.
2. Force turnovers. Lots of them. With the offense continuing to sputter, the Rebels need to go on the defensive again like they did at Wisconsin.
3. Mix it up. The team's too predictable play calling needs to come up with a few wrinkles and big plays.
To win, New Mexico must ...
1. Pick up where it left off. The Lobos mauled a good Utah team for 633 yards in total offense last week.
2. Start fast. The longer the Rebels stay in the contest the better a chance for an upset.
3. Get some production from Casey Kelly. It figures UNLV will go out to stop the run, so the Lobos will need to get some big passing plays to keep them honest.
THE PICK
New Mexico 28, UNLV 13
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