Friday, Oct. 10, 2003 | 10:36 a.m.
WHEN UNLV HAS THE BALL UNLV run offense vs. Air Force run defense The Rebels ran for 303 yards on just 47 carries in last year's 49-32 loss to the Falcons at Sam Boyd Stadium, including 101 yards by Dominique Dorsey and 75 yards by Larry Croom, who had touchdown runs of 40 and 17 yards. Both Dorsey and Croom are back. They rank fifth and sixth in the Mountain West Conference in rushing and average a combined 149.4 yards per game rushing. Air Force ranks seventh in the MWC in rush defense and allowed 176 yards and a touchdown to Navy fullback Kyle Eckel last week. The Middies rushed for 294 yards in that contest. Other than Navy and I-AA Wofford in the season opener, the Falcons have played strictly passing teams.
Edge: UNLV. UNLV pass offense vs. Air Force pass defense The Falcons lead the MWC with nine interceptions after recording just 12 picks the entire 2002 season. Air Force switched to a 3-3-5 defense to get more defensive backs on the field and it seems to have worked so far. Led by senior safety Larry Duncan, the Falcons rank a solid 35th in pass defense allowing just 193.2 yards per game. Meanwhile, UNLV's passing attack has sputtered most of the season. Junior quarterback Kurt Nantkes hasn't thrown a touchdown pass in two games and has just five for the season. Rebels junior wide receiver Earvin Johnson is having another all-conference type of year with 24 catches for 300 yards and two touchdowns. And tight end Greg Estandia, bothered by turf toe recently, appears to be running better this week in practice and provides a big matchup problem for the Falcons. Air Force secondary was carved up for 379 passing yards by Wyoming's Casey Bramlet in a 35-29 victory three weeks! ago. This might be the week Nantkes and company finally get on track.
Edge: UNLV. WHEN AIR FORCE HAS THE BALL Air Force run offense vs. UNLV run defense Air Force senior quarterback Chance Harridge set an NCAA record for quarterbacks last year with 22 rushing touchdowns including two last year against the Rebels when the Falcons rolled up an amazing 366 yards on the ground. But that was against UNLV's old 4-3 defense. The Rebels are much faster on the perimeter this year and have two outside linebackers, John Andrews and Reggie Butler, who are arguably as fast as any Falcons back. Still, they haven't played against an option team like Air Force, which ranks second in the nation in rushing with an average of 303.5 yards per game and has a veteran offensive line that is the largest in school history.
Edge: Air Force. Air Force pass offense vs. UNLV pass defense The Falcons rank 113th in passing with an average 114 yards per game and throw enough just to keep the defense honest. Harridge is completing just 54.4 percent of his passes and has an average arm at best. He also could be without one of his top receiving threats, J.P. Waller (left hip bruise). UNLV's pass defense has given up its share of yards (239.4 yards per game) but also has come up with eight interceptions and seems to buckle down near the goal line. Junior Jamaal Brimmer has established himself as the premier defensive player in the conference and should put up some glossy tackle numbers in this one.
Edge: UNLV. SPECIAL TEAMS Very few schools are more adept at blocking kicks than the Falcons. Air Force, which has blocked three kicks this season, has had 83 blocks since 1990 which ranks the Falcons second nationally in that span behind only Virginia Tech (85). Air Force's Andrew Martin leads the MWC in punting with a 45.7 average and kicker Joey Ashcroft is a Lou Groza Award candidate who has struggled this year, connecting on just 5 of 8 attempts. UNLV's kicker Dillon Pieffer, who prepped at nearby Coronado High in Colorado Springs, has kicked seven field goals in his past two games and leads MWC kickers in scoring with an average of 8.0 points per game. The Falcons lead the nation in kickoff coverage allowing just 16.1 yards per return.
Edge: Air Force. INTANGIBLES Got to wonder what Air Force's state of mind will be for this game after a devastating 28-25 loss at Navy last week, a game that will likely snap the Falcons' streak of six consecutive Commander-in-Chief trophies. Air Force head coach Fisher DeBerry has made no secret of the fact that his team's No. 1 goal each season is the trophy because the winning team gets to visit the White House and meet with the President. Now they fall back to their second goal of winning the Mountain West Conference. The Falcons' theme this year is "Unfinished Business" because they dropped five of their past seven games in 2002 following a 6-0 start. UNLV, meanwhile, brings in its first three-game winning streak since 2000. The Rebels defeated Air Force, 34-10, in their last trip to Colorado Springs in 2001.
Edge: Air Force. COACHING Under Fisher DeBerry, the Falcons have done the unthinkable at a service academy, posting 17 winning seasons in 19 years. He may be the most underrated coach in college football considering the recruiting restrictions he must overcome each year. The Falcons rarely beat themselves, averaging just 34.7 yards in penalties. It has taken five years but UNLV's John Robinson has the Rebels finally within reach of earning the first Top 25 rating in school history. Considering how bad the program was in when he took over in 1999, that may rank up there with winning the 1978 national championship at USC as his greatest coaching achievement.
Edge: Even. KEYS TO VICTORY To win, UNLV must ... 1. Contain Chance Harridge. He's the Falcons' biggest offensive weapon and one of the best option quarterbacks in college football history.
2. Force turnovers. The triple option is susceptible to fumbles.
3. Be patient. Even if the Rebels fall behind, there shouldn't be any reason to panic because, like last week's game at Nevada-Reno, this one figures to be decided in the fourth quarter. To win, Air Force must ... 1. Start fast. After last week's demoralizing loss at Navy, the Falcons need a quick start to get their swagger back.
2. Possess the ball. Air Force would like nothing better than to keep its defense, beaten up for 294 yards rushing by Navy last week, on the sideline.
3. Stop the run. UNLV's passing attack has been efficient but hasn't shown that it's capable of carrying the team in a big game. THE PICK UNLV 21, Air Force 17
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