Friday, Nov. 7, 2003 | 10:11 a.m.
As the competition kicks up a notch for local prep football teams, so too does the intensity here at Prep Picks Central, where we face an impossibly difficult slate of games to pick in the region quarterfinals.
Amazingly, it's the top seeds that bring us the most pause. Injured Las Vegas against Basic? Untested Bishop Gorman against Cheyenne? Upstart Coronado against Eldorado? All of those games come with major questions.
Aren't these supposed to be the easy ones for us to tack onto our sterling winning percentage, at its high water mark of 80 percent after an 11-1 record in the final week of the regular season? So we thought -- and thought wrong.
Well, that's why they pay out the (ahem) big bucks for us to make the tough choices. On to our first-round playoff predictions...
All these games begin today at 7 p.m. SUNRISE REGION QUARTERFINALS
Eldorado (NE-4, 3-6) at Coronado (SE-1, 7-2)
The skinny: We would feel so much more comfortable about picking this game if Basic, a premier passing offense, had not beaten Coronado in the final week of the season. Eldorado, while not on the level of the Wolves, can really throw the ball. Can the Sundevils defend the scrappy Cougars? In that question lies the key to this game. Don't be shocked if this takes more than four quarters.
The pick: Coronado 24, Eldorado 21 (OT)
Rancho (NE-3, 5-4) at Foothill (SE-2, 8-1)
The skinny: No one at Foothill has forgotten last year's near-debacle in the first round against Chaparral, when the Falcons almost bowed out in a stunner. The wake-up call for Foothill came in the loss to Coronado. They will not overlook a Rancho team that is talented, but does not have the depth to stay with the Falcons all night.
The pick: Foothill 30, Rancho 14
Silverado (SE-3, 3-6) at Desert Pines (NE-2, 6-3)
The skinny: If Desert Pines was beginning to think this season was anything like last season, the beating it took from Las Vegas should have taken care of that notion. Leon Evans should have his Jaguars regrouped and ready to play against the Skyhawks. The Jaguars won the Sept. 19 meeting of these teams, 39-22, and they appear ready for an encore.
The pick: Desert Pines 39, Silverado 22
Basic (SE-4, 7-2) at Las Vegas (NE-1, 9-0)
The skinny: After picking the other seven games, we return to the one we just do not want to tackle. How can you analyze this game? Las Vegas will feature a pair of untested sophomores at quarterback and running back whom no one knows anything about and Basic relies on a delicate timing passing offense that is either very on or very off. This game screams upset, but somehow, we think two weeks is too much time to give Kris Cinkovich's staff to prepare for this one.
The pick: Las Vegas 28, Basic 21 SUNSET REGION QUARTERFINALS
Cheyennec (NW-4, 5-4) at Bishop Gorman (SW-1, 7-2)
The skinny: Yes, we know that the Gaels won the regular-season matchup, 19-12, over the Desert Shields. Yes, we know that the Gorman offense is a totally different animal than it was a few weeks ago. Yes, we know that Cheyenne has been habitually inconsistent this season. And despite all that evidence, we cannot ignore Cheyenne's talent and the fact that the Shields have only lost once by more than seven points.
The pick: Cheyenne 20, Bishop Gorman 17
Cimarron-Memorial (NW-3, 6-3) at Western (SW-2, 5-4)
The skinny: We continue to be amazed by what Ron Smeltzer squeezes out of this Cimarron group. The Spartans are wafer-thin in numbers, but they rarely beat themselves and should rebound from a whipping from Centennial. Western is a dangerous team with plenty of athletic talent on offense, but against teams with winning records, the Warriors were outscored 92-13 in four losses.
The pick: Cimarron-Memorial 30, Western 12
Sierra Vista (SW-3, 3-6) at Centennial (NW-2, 5-4)
The skinny: Well, this certainly is not the sexiest matchup of the opening round. The Lions should be very thankful that Durango did not push for a field goal in the waning seconds of their final-week loss to the Blazers, or Sierra Vista would be out of the playoffs. The Bulldogs are playoff sleepers, capable of beating anyone in the Sunset bracket.
The pick: Centennial 40, Sierra Vista 7
Bonanza (SW-4, 3-6) at Palo Verde (NW-1, 9-0)
The skinny: Let's be honest for a moment -- on the whole, this is a weak Sunset bracket. The Panthers are the only legitimate state title contender right now and the Bengals should present little more than a speed bump in the road. We cannot help but remember the Panthers' struggle with Valley, though, which makes us think this could be a respectable final.
The pick: Palo Verde 28, Bonanza 7
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Last week: 11-1 (.917)
Final 2003 record: 92-23 (.800)
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