Friday, Oct. 25, 2002 | 10:21 a.m.
Sal DeFilippo's pro football picks column appears Friday. Reach him at [email protected] or (702) 259-4076.
One of the thrills of sports betting is figuring out, well before it unfolds, precisely what it will take to win, or lose, a game against the spread.
The optimist can outline exactly how his team will score nine touchdowns in the final two minutes, and the pessimist braces for the five fourth quarter-fumbles that will sound his death knell.
It's really fun, however, when you run through all the possibilities and then something pops up you hadn't even considered.
Such was the case Sunday. I was perched in my usual position, front and center facing the big screens at the Las Vegas Hilton Superbook, where I have torn up NFL parlays consistently for 13 years.
The 49ers and Saints were the featured game. New Orleans was leading by one point, and had just intercepted a pass in San Francisco territory with about four minutes to play.
Gene Franco, a friend I have known since high school and whose Hilton longevity exceeds mine, is plotting strategy with Joey, a classic East Coast guy who I have seen practically every football weekend for a decade, yet whose last name I can't tell you. I'm not even sure he has one. They both have the Saints, minus 2 1/2 points, so the calculating begins.
"The 49ers have their all time outs, so I don't think New Orleans can run out the clock," Gene says. "As long as they don't turn it over, we should be in good shape."
Joey stands up, and starts pacing, like an expectant father waiting to hand out cigars en route to the cashier's window. It's crunch time. The Saints make a first down, and the 49ers start burning time outs. New Orleans reaches the 12-yard line at the 2-minute warning. A field goal is all that's needed to cover the spread, but remember, the Saints are really only concerned with winning the game by any margin.
"Gene, the only thing that can beat us is if the Saints get a first down inside the 2-yard line without getting a touchdown. Then they could take a knee. Otherwise, they'll either be in the end zone or they'll kick on fourth down," Joey says.
Let's see John Madden explain that on his chalkboard. But Joey was right. And since he was, naturally, the Saints made it to the 1-yard line, but didn't score. Every gambler will tell you these worst-case scenarios manifest themselves with amazing frequency. Suddenly, Gene and Joey are in trouble.
"No, Gene, no!" screams Joey. This puts the Saints in a position to concede any effort to score, and opt to use as much clock as possible. The 49ers had one timeout left, but the Saints could have run the clock down to around 10 seconds, we figured.
Here's the best part -- now, the focus is no longer on the clock, the score, the field position, or even the quarterback awaiting the snap. All eyes are on the formation. If New Orleans has a wide receiver 10 yards deep in the back field, Gene and Joey are sunk, because that means the Saints are not going to try to score. Joey has quit pacing and has moved closer to the screen, because the closer you get, the more dramatic it feels, for some reason.
However, knowing he can't quite run the clock out completely, Saints coach Jim Haslett orders a quarterback sneak, and Aaron Brooks crosses the goal line for the apparent game-covering touchdown.
Of course, that's far too storybook ending, so there had to be a penalty on the play. The Saints had 12 men in the huddle.
"You've got to be kidding," Gene says. "What a stupid penalty." Meanwhile, maintenance people are busy repairing the hole in the carpet that Joey has burned in it.
However, in perhaps an NFL first, 49ers coach Steve Mariucci chose to decline the penalty, and allow the touchdown to stand. His logic was sound -- the touchdown and extra-point only gave the Saints an eight-point edge, and his offense got the ball back with enough time to score a touchdown and make the two-point conversion necessary for overtime. It was really his only chance to win -- but something none of us in the book had thought about until after the fact.
The 49ers turned the ball over again and Joey and Gene were winners, which was a good thing, because if the 49ers had scored, then the process starts anew -- San Francisco would then need the two-point conversion to force overtime so New Orleans still could win by more than the 2 1/2-point spread. Not to mention all that pacing around.
I'm not sure they could have handled that.
For the latest celebrity NFL picks, see http://www.vegas.com/gaming/picks/ index.html
archive
