Columnist Dean Juipe: Be careful in choosing an ‘expert’

Dean Juipe

Friday, Oct. 4, 2002 | 10:07 a.m.

Dean Juipe's column appears Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. His boxing notebook appears Thursday. Reach him at juipe@lasvegassun.com or (702) 259-4084.

Seeing an assortment of favorites fail to cover or even win is not atypical early in a National Football League season. It happens virtually every year.

It's certainly happening this year.

Last weekend, for instance, six underdogs (Dallas, Detroit, Kansas City, Arizona, San Diego and Baltimore) flat out won games that bettors expected them to lose. And in the remaining eight games, three favorites (Green Bay, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia) won but didn't cover the spread, leaving only five favorites (Buffalo, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, Oakland and Seattle) that actually won and covered.

Just as annually, so-called experts emerge after a run like this and proclaim themselves insightful for not only backing the underdogs but urging the public to do as well. They, of course, have 900 numbers and websites in which they give their picks for a fee.

It's a little nauseating, especially to an old pro such as Lem Banker.

"I've been doing this my whole life ... 44 years in Las Vegas ... and I've seen a lot of guys come and go who think they know what they're doing," he said Thursday. "You see these new guys get their names in the paper, but none of them is making a living betting with his own money.

"There are a couple of exceptions, but most of them are on a free ride. They're touts who talk a good game ... they're phonies who won't stand the test of time.

"I tell you, I never see them at a gourmet restaurant or diving a fancy car.

"What I'd say to them is: Let's see you put your own money up and do what I do."

In other words, if you're willing to pay for assistance in picking football games be careful where you get your advice. Some guy saying underdogs are usually a good play in the first month of the NFL season is not saying anything that hasn't been said before.

"That's a song that's been sung for years," Banker said. "In the NFL, there are always going to be upsets."

Particularly early in a season and before the public has a real feel for the teams, upsets abound due to an assortment of easily recognizable reasons: free agency; good teams from a year ago playing tougher schedules; good teams having lost assistant coaches to other teams; good teams having their styles mimicked by other teams; young teams emerging because of their players' physical development; and old teams declining as their players pass their peaks.

As a result, teams are routinely overvalued and undervalued by the casual bettor. Hence, four weeks into the season anyone choosing to play all underdogs has won more than he has lost.

But making a blanket statement that betting underdogs is the way to go will eventually prove to be less than beneficial. It's a bandwagon that won't roll forever.

Banker went 7-2 with his NFL picks last week (and was 16-8 on college games) and he does a ton of homework. He compiles his own numbers and literally scours the world looking for the best number he can get on a given game.

Unless you're willing to do the same, either limit your betting or do it only for fun, or consult a legitimate expert.

And having a 900 number and/or a web address does not qualify a man to be an expert.