Friday, Dec. 14, 2001 | 4:51 a.m.
The terrorist attacks have created a chasm of uncertainty in the post-Sept. 11 political world, with candidates and their spin machines attempting to fill the void with news that supports them.
But will voters support incumbents or stay at home? Could issues of homeland security give way to discussion of economic woes? And can the patriotic support for President Bush trickle down?
Political prophets agree that the crystal ball for the 2002 election cycle is cloudier than ever as candidates gingerly return to a campaign trail affected by the attacks.
Ted Jelen, chairman of the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, political science department, said he thinks the attacks had important, although largely unseen, repercussions.
"Sept. 11 was right about the time that plausible candidates had to make decisions about getting in," Jelen said. "It made it very difficult to attract people to the race and difficult to raise money."
Nevada's Democrats have all but conceded the governor's mansion to Republican incumbent Kenny Guinn, who is widely supported for his actions immediately after the attacks when he mobilized the state's military reserves and later when he assisted laid-off workers.
It's possible the ballot will show other effects. A Republican-dominated slate could hurt Democratic congressional candidate Dario Herrera, Jelen suggested.
"Herrera has to do something to make the race exciting, to make people want to come out to vote for him," he said.
Herrera, the Clark County Commission chairman, said his campaign for the newly drawn 3rd Congressional District saw a more overt problem after Sept. 11.
"There was some time, particularly right after 9-11, that my team felt it was inappropriate to have (fund-raising and other) events," said Herrera, who is running against Republican state Sen. Jon Porter.
After the attacks, a Washington fund-raiser to be hosted by Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev., was scrapped. Also canceled was a Las Vegas rally to officially launch Herrera's campaign.
During the recent AFL-CIO convention in Las Vegas, labor leaders shunned political fund-raising in favor of assistance to laid-off workers. Candidates agree it has been difficult to gauge the public's mindset when it comes to raising money.
"We certainly have been very mindful of people's moods," Herrera said.
Now that the initial shock of Sept. 11 has waned, some candidates said voters are seeking information on traditional issues.
"If you think in terms of what folks have to face every day of their lives, it has to do with jobs, health care, traffic and education," Clark County Republican Party Chairman Steve Wark said.
"It's not that security is unimportant," he added. "It's just that within 30 days (of Sept. 11), here in Southern Nevada people began to be much more concerned about the economy."
Governor races in New Jersey and Virginia, which Democrats won in November, were run on pre-Sept. 11 issues and the economy dominated.
Bill McInturff, a Republican Party pollster, said those races stood still in the weeks after the attacks.
"If you were down 10 points on Sept. 11, how in the world could you possibly make up 10 points?" McInturff, who runs Public Opinion Strategies, said.
But three months after the attacks, McInturff's polls show America focused again on the economy.
Rep. Shelley Berkley, D-Nev., jumped immediately on the economic downturn, bringing laid-off Las Vegas workers to testify on Capitol Hill and pushing for benefits.
"The election will play out, but right now I am focused entirely on this economy and the decisions we have to make," she said.
Her Republican challenger in the 1st Congressional District, Lynette Boggs McDonald, is using a phrase akin to Democratic presidential strategist Jim Carville's "It's the economy, stupid" from 1992.
"I think the election will really be about three things: the economy, the economy, the economy," Boggs McDonald, a Las Vegas councilwoman, said.
Boggs McDonald thinks she will be helped by Bush's popularity, she said. She expects the president will work on Republican candidates' behalf because of the narrow margins in the House and Senate.
But no one can predict if Bush's popularity will remain near 90 percent. And no one knows whether he will be able to divert his attention from the war on terrorism in 2002.
"He seems to believe that war is a time when you mask partisan differences," said John Samples, director of the Center for Representative Democracy at the Cato Institute -- a libertarian public policy organization in Washington.
"I'm not sure we'll have a president who is going to inject himself into the races," Samples added.
Mark Nevins, spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in Washington, said that party is not concerned about Bush's wartime approval ratings.
"We're not running against President Bush in any of these elections," Nevins said. "Each one of these races will be decided at the local level."
But Wark suggests that will hurt Berkley, who might have less time to spend in Las Vegas because of increased congressional duties.
Berkley, however, flies to Las Vegas each weekend, pressing the flesh at religious and political events. For example, last weekend she attended a Menorah-lighting ceremony and then a fund-raiser with Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass.
Porter, who lost to Berkley in 2000, said he believes most Americans are more interested in talking with candidates since Sept. 11.
"I sense that there is now, more than ever, a rebirth in politics," Porter said. "Voters are looking more carefully at who is representing them. They want proven, tested leadership."
Nevins said Democrats will support Bush and the war on terrorism, but they will erect a partisan barrier on the economy.
"Democrats support President Bush," Nevins said. "Democrats support the war on terrorism. But our view is that the Republicans in the House have badly mismanaged the recession and efforts to get us out of the recession."
Rep. Jim Gibbons, R-Nev., said politicians were aware last year that the nation was heading into recession, but it took the average American longer to feel the pinch.
"Sept. 11 had the effect of an earthquake on the national view of the economy," Gibbons said.
Bush is blaming the worst of the downturn on the attacks, and Democrats will falter if they point the finger at the president, Gibbons suggests.
"The American public does not want to see the back-biting partisanship it has in the past," said Gibbons, who is facing token opposition in Nevada's 2nd Congressional District. "Instead, they want people who are consensus builders and who have a spirit of leadership, not someone who is taking political advantage of crisis."
Samples said many economists think the recession will be over by the middle of 2002, making it harder for candidates to focus on it in the fall.
"It's plausible that Bush will still be popular then, too," Samples said.
And, if a recent Washington fund-raiser is any indication, Bush may hit the campaign trail next year with other administration officials.
Vice President Dick Cheney, who has been campaigning for GOP House candidates, attended a Nov. 27 fund-raiser for Senate Republican Leader Trent Lott's political action committee in Washington.
Last week he raised $400,000 at a Dallas event for a fund run by Rep. Dick Armey, R-Texas, who announced Wednesday that he would retire at the end of his term, and another $100,000 at an Oklahoma City event for Rep. J.C. Watts, R-Okla.
Republican strategist Russ Schriefer said he thinks Bush's popularity will dip, but that patriotism will remain high. As a result, the level of debate will rise.
"Personal attacks will be harder to sustain and will have to be much more provable," said Schriefer, founding partner of the firm, Stevens and Schriefer.
Lori Lipman Brown, a former Democratic state senator from Las Vegas, said she would appreciate such a change.
During the 1993 Legislature, she walked out of a Christian prayer because she said, as a Jew, she objected to the dominant Christian references.
But at a time when America was committed to the Persian Gulf War, Republicans painted her as unpatriotic and accused her of not saying the Pledge of Allegiance. Lipman Brown lost the 1994 election after Senate Majority Leader Bill Raggio, R-Reno, and others in the party launched late campaign ads attacking her as unreligious and unpatriotic.
She never returned to politics.
"My experience is that people who talk a lot about patriotism and do symbolic things aren't really patriotic," Lipman Brown said. "The scary part is that there are people who will just use rhetoric to make others look unpatriotic."
The Nevada Legislature will be awash in red, white and blue in 2003, if the Gulf War-era session is any indication. The 1993 Legislature held numerous patriotic activities, in part because of the return of then-Assemblyman Gibbons, an active-duty pilot during the war.
His wife, Dawn, was appointed to his seat during the 1991 session while he was away.
Lawmakers are already lining up their Sept. 11-related legislation.
Assembly Speaker Richard Perkins, D-Henderson, has requested an anti-terrorism measure that will require hotels file emergency plans with the state. Perkins' bill also would make certain actions -- such as a terrorist hoax -- state crimes.
"I think Sept. 11 taught us that we have to be prepared," Perkins said. "It's important, as lawmakers, that we do everything we can to prevent an incident from happening here."
As the state's chief execuitve, Guinn has hit the same note. During the recent AFL-CIO convention in Las Vegas, he told delegates he has worked to help workers laid off since the attacks.
"I can't believe what a progressive governor he is," said Tony Hill, a labor organizer with the Service Employees International Union in Florida and a former Democratic state senator.
Just as Samples believes the terrorist attacks have recreated Bush, so, too, has the economic downtown bolstered Guinn's re-election bid.
"As terrible as it is that these things happened, I think it (showed) some Nevadans who had not had contact with the governor his business side and also his compassion," said Pete Ernaut, Guinn's re-election campaign chairman.
The $57 million in state funds that Guinn released from the budget to help laid-off workers may become a cornerstone in the election and could keep serious opposition away from the race.
"Democrats will probably find someone to serve as a sacrificial lamb," Jelen said. "But I suspect the races will be boring, resulting in low voter turnout."
With turnout generally lower in midterm elections, some predict the ultimate result of the Sept. 11 attacks will be "politics as usual."
"Eleven months is a long way away, and already we're seeing a return to the partisanship," Boggs McDonald said. "I expect it to play out like any other race."
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